Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10396

Geography Surveyed: KY 4th Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/07/2006 - 10/09/2006
Release Date: 10/10/2006 11:55 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville

Republican Davis, Democrat Lucas See-Saw Once Again in KY4: In an election today, 10/10/2006, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, it's Republican incumbent Geoff Davis 47%, Democratic challenger Ken Lucas 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, on 9/19/06, Davis, who lost to Lucas in 2002 but was elected in 2004 after Lucas retired, has gained 4 points. Lucas, who represented the 4th District from 1999 through 2004, has lost 3 points. Lucas led by 9 points in July. That lead was outside of the survey's margin of error. Since then, Lucas trailed by 2 in August, led by 4 in September, now trails by 3. All of those results are within the surveys' margins of sampling error. The movement may or may not be statistically significant; the movement could just be random statistical fluctuation. Within the past two weeks, voters age 35 to 64 have moved toward the Republican. Davis gets 81% of Republican votes. Lucas gets 78% of Democrat votes. There is movement among Independents towards the Democrat. Both parties covet the House seat as they seek control of Congress. Heavy ad spending and a nationalized agenda mean poll results are likely to fluctuate further between now and election day. The election is in 4 weeks, on 11/7/06.

Filtering: 900 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 10/7/06 - 10/9/06. Of them, 771 were registered to vote. Of them, 459 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.