Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17015

Geography Surveyed: Jefferson County
Data Collected: 08/27/2010 - 08/30/2010
Release Date: 08/31/2010 10:20 AM ET
Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, Louisville, KY

Some Movement in the Contest for Metro Mayor of Louisville, But Candidates Still Effectively Even: In an election for Louisville Metro Mayor today, 08/31/10, Republican Hal Heiner and Democrat Greg Fischer finish effectively even, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today, it's Fischer 47%, Heiner 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, the race is essentially unchanged, with Heiner flat and Fischer up a nominal 2 points. There is some movement among demographic subgroups, but most of the movement that does exist is offsetting, with gains for Heiner among the youngest voters offset by gains for Fischer among the oldest. Heiner, a Metro Councilman, continues to lead by double digits among men -- by 12 points today, down from a 17-point lead last month. Fischer, a 2008 candidate for US Senate, continues to lead among double digits among women -- by 16 points today, slightly down from an 18-point lead last month. Put together, it yields a significant 28-point gender gap. White voters continue to narrowly favor Heiner; black voters continue to strongly favor Fischer. One piece of movement does appear favorable toward Fischer: one month ago, Fischer led by 48 points among Democrats, while Heiner led by 74 points among Republicans. Today, Heiner's GOP lead has dipped ever-so-slightly, to 69 points, while Fischer's lead among Democrats has increased to 60 points.

Turnout will be critical in determining the winner, and it is conceivable either candidate could be pulled into office by the coattails of the US Senate candidate from his party.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from Jefferson County KY 08/27/10 through 08/30/10. Of them, 884 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Incumbent mayor Jerry Abramson is running for Kentucky Lieutenant Governor in 2011 and is not seeking re-election as Metro Mayor.

  Asked of 618 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for Louisville Metro Mayor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Hal Heiner? Democrat Greg Fischer? Independent Nimbus Couzin? Independent Jackie Green? Or Independent Jerry Mills?

45% Heiner (R)
47% Fisher (D)
0% Couzin (I)
2% Green (I)
1% Mills (I)
5% Undecided

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