Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10281

Geography Surveyed: Maryland
Data Collected: 09/17/2006 - 09/19/2006
Release Date: 09/20/2006 11:40 AM ET
Sponsors: WMAR-TV Baltimore, WUSA-TV Washington, DC

Possible Democrat Take-Away in MD Governor Contest: In an election for Governor of Maryland today, 9/20/06, Democrat Martin O'Malley edges Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WMAR-TV Baltimore and WUSA-TV Washington, D.C. O'Malley wins by 7 points, 51% to 44%. 79% of Democrats support O'Malley. 83% of Republicans support Ehrlich. Independents favor the incumbent Republican Ehrlich by 11 points. O'Malley wins 10:1 in the City of Baltimore. In the Baltimore suburbs, Ehrlich wins by 17 points. In the rest of MD, which includes the DC suburbs, O'Malley is up by 21 points. O'Malley has been Mayor of Baltimore since 1999. Ehrlich was first elected Governor in 2002. The election is on 11/7/06.

Toss-Up For Open MD US Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Maryland today, 9/20/06, Republican Michael Steele and Democrat Ben Cardin are effectively tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WMAR-TV Baltimore and WUSA-TV Washington, D.C. 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Steele gets 48% and Cardin gets 47%. Steele's one-point advantage is within the poll's 4.4% margin of sampling error and may or may not be statistically meaningful. 54% of whites vote for Republican Steele, the same percentage who vote for the Republican Ehrlich in the MD Governor's race. But: Steele, who is black, gets 33% of the black vote, more than twice the black support that Ehrlich gets. 10% of Republicans cross-over to vote Democrat. 22% of Democrats cross-over to vote Republican. Independents break for Steele by 6 points. Cardin's support is slightly older than Steele's. Steele's support is slightly younger than Cardin's. A Steele win would greatly improve the Republicans' chances of keeping control of the U.S. Senate in 2007. Steele is Maryland's Lieutenant Governor. Cardin represents Maryland's 3rd CD in the U.S. House of Representatives. Incumbent Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring after 30 years in office.

Filtering: 900 Maryland adults were interviewed 9/17/06 - 9/19/06. Of them, 745 were registered to vote. Of them, 522 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 522 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Ehrlich? Democrat Martin O'Malley? Green Party candidate Ed Boyd? Or Populist Party candidate Chris Driscoll?

44% Ehrlich (R)
51% O'Malley (D)
2% Boyd (G)
1% Driscoll (P)
2% Undecided

2
  Asked of 522 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

Maryland voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Michael Steele? Democrat Ben Cardin? Or Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese?

48% Steele (R)
47% Cardin (D)
4% Zeese (G)
2% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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