Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10614

Geography Surveyed: KY 3rd Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/30/2006 - 11/01/2006
Release Date: 11/02/2006 10:25 AM ET
Sponsor: WHAS-TV Louisville

Democrat Challenger Yarmuth Ousts Northup In KY3: In an election in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 11/2/06, Democratic challenger John Yarmuth defeats Republican incumbent Anne Northup, 52% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Since an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll 2 weeks ago, on 10/19/06, Yarmuth has gained 4 points and Northup has lost 3 points. In the last 5 weeks, Yarmuth has gained 8 and Northup has lost 6. On 9/29/06, Northup led by 6. Two weeks ago, Yarmuth led by 1. Today, Yarmuth leads by 8. Republicans favor Northup 9:1, and Independents are evenly split. There has been no movement in these groups in the past 2 weeks. However, Democrats, who had previously supported Yarmuth by 52 points, now support him by 64 points. Only 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for Northup, no longer enough for her to win in this heavily Democratic district. Northup, who has was first elected to Congress in 1996, won in 2004 with 60% of the vote, but in her previous 4 elections she had not exceeded 53%. Democrats have targeted Kentucky's 3rd District as a possible pick-up in their push to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Abramson Re-Elected as Metro Mayor of Louisville: In an election today, 11/2/06, Louisville Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson is re-elected with 69% of the vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Republican Kelly Downard gets 27%. There has been no significant movement since an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll 2 weeks ago. 85% of Democrats vote for Abramson. 43% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Abramson. Abramson wins all demographic groups. The election is in 5 days, on 11/7/06. Abramson was elected Mayor of the City of Louisville in 1985, 1989, and 1993. In 2002, after the City of Louisville merged with Jefferson County, he was elected to be the first Louisville Metro Mayor. SurveyUSA tracks the Job Approval rating of Abramson every 30 days for WHAS-TV. Abramson's approval is 66% today.

Filtering: 1,000 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed 10/30/06 through 11/1/06. Of them, 885 were registered to vote. Of them, 610 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District comprises 97% of Louisville/Jefferson county. The results in the Mayoral poll are for the 3rd CD, not for the entire county. The 3% of Jefferson County residents who live outside of the 3rd Congressional District were not included in the interviews for this survey. Given the size of Abramson's lead, the missing 3% of Louisville residents will not affect the outcome of the Mayor election.