Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16804

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 07/08/2010 - 07/11/2010
Release Date: 07/12/2010 2:50 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

CA: GOP Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown For Governor; Fiorina & Boxer In Tight Fight for US Senate.

In an election for Governor of California today, 07/12/10, Republican Meg Whitman edges Democrat Jerry Brown 46% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Brown, currently California's Attorney General, leads 2:1 in the Bay Area, trails in the rest of the state. Whitman, former CEO of eBay, leads among men and affluent voters. The Republican holds 77% of Republican voters. The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats. Independents break 5:4 Republican. Question 1 and 2 on this report show the identical data. Question 1 collapses 9 minor party candidates and "undecided" voters into a single "other / undecided" category. Respondents were asked the "who will you vote for" for Governor question once.

In the race for United States Senate, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina are effectively even. Fiorina 47%, Boxer 45%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Twice as many Democrats cross-over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote Democrat. The Republican has an ever-so-slight advantage in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley. The Republican carries the Inland Empire 2:1. The Democrat carries the Bay Area 2:1. Question 3 and 4 on this report show the identical data. Question 3 collapses 6 minor party candidates and "undecided" voters into a single "other / undecided" category. Respondents were asked the "who will you vote for" for US Senate question once.

Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana, and allow marijuana to be regulated and taxed in California, is supported narrowly today. Ballot measures are difficult to poll; opposition to many ballot measures increases as election day approaches. Voter reaction to Proposition 19 can be expected to shift as both sides begin to advertise the pros and cons of passage. Today: The youngest voters support. The oldest voters oppose. Democrats and Independents support. Republicans oppose.


Filtering: 1,000 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 07/08/10 through 07/11/10. Of them, 840 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 614 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 4 months from now.

1
   Asked of 614 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate?

46% Whitman (R)
39% Brown (D)
15% Other / Undecided

2
   Asked of 614 likely voters in governor race who vote for another candidate
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

Same Governor data as Question #1, but with 9 minor party candidates shown. [Respondents were asked the question once; results are collapsed in Question 1 for ease of comprehension.]

46% Whitman (R)
39% Brown (D)
2% Nightingale (AIP)
2% Wells (G)
1% Ogden (L)
1% Alvarez (PFP)
1% Folley (I)
0% Christian (I)
0% Marciano (I)
0% Vangelisti (I)
0% Von Anhalt (I)
8% Undecided

3
   Asked of 614 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

[Candidate names rotated]
California will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from California were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carly Fiorina? Democrat Barbara Boxer? Or another candidate?

47% Fiorina (R)
45% Boxer (D)
8% Other / Undecided

4
   Asked of 614 likely voters in senate race who vote for another candidate
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

Same Senate data as Question #3, but with 6 minor party candidates shown. [Respondents were asked the question once; results are collapsed in Question 3 for ease of comprehension.]

47% Fiorina (R)
45% Boxer (D)
1% Noonan (AIP)
0% Roberts (G)
1% Lightfoot (L)
0% Feinland (PFP)
0% Carroll (I)
1% Goldberg (I)
5% Undecided

5
   Asked of 614 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {"Not Certain" voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

50% Certain Yes
40% Certain No
11% Not Certain

6
   Asked of 840 registered voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

Is your opinion of President Barack Obama ... Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion?

40% Favorable
38% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
2% No Opinion

7
   Asked of 840 registered voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

Is your opinion of the Tea Party Movement ...

31% Favorable
37% Unfavorable
22% Neutral
10% No Opinion

8
   Asked of 840 registered voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 2.9 percentage points.

Is California headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?

11% Right Direction
77% Wrong Track
12% Not Sure

9
   Asked of 840 registered voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

Do you support? ... Or do you oppose? ... drilling for oil and natural gas ... off the Coast of California? Or do you not know enough to say?

35% Support
37% Oppose
29% Do Not Know

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   Statement of Methodology
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