Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10287

Geography Surveyed: KY 4th Congressional District
Data Collected: 09/16/2006 - 09/18/2006
Release Date: 09/19/2006 10:00 AM ET
Sponsor: WCPO-TV Cincinnati

Democrat Lucas On Top again in Seesaw KY4 Race: In an election today, 9/19/2006, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, Democrat Ken Lucas leads Republican incumbent Geoff Davis, 48% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 8/10/06, Lucas, who represented the 4th District from 1999 through 2004, has gained 4 points. Davis, who lost to Lucas in 2002 but was elected in 2004 after Lucas retired, has lost 2 points. Lucas led by 9 points in July, trailed by 2 in August, and now leads by 4. The election is in 7 weeks, on 11/7/06. Lucas gets 81% of Democrat votes. Davis gets 80% of Republican votes. Independents prefer the Republican Davis by 6 points. Lucas's improvement comes from women voters, where he has gone from a 4-point lead to a 17-point lead. Among men, Davis leads by 8 points: a 25-point "gender gap". Both parties covet the House seat as they seek control of Congress. Heavy ad spending and a nationalized agenda mean poll results are likely to fluctuate further between now and election day, 11/7/2006.

Filtering: 900 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 9/16/06 - 9/18/06. Of them, 780 were registered to vote. Of them, 427 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 427 Adults
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.8 percentage points.

If the election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Geoff Davis? Democrat Ken Lucas? Or some other candidate?

44% Davis (R)
48% Lucas (D)
8% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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