Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12539

Geography Surveyed: MA 5th Congressional District
Data Collected: 08/27/2007 - 08/29/2007
Release Date: 08/30/2007 9:00 AM ET
Sponsor: WBZ-TV Boston

On the Offensive, Donoghue Closes-In On Tsongas in MA5 Special Democrat Primary: Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue is surging in the final week before the special Democratic Primary to replace Marty Meehan, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely primary voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. 5 Days to the vote, Nikki Tsongas continues to lead all comers, with 40%. But Donoghue is up 13 points, to 29% today, compared an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released two weeks ago, on 8/14. Among Liberal voters, Tsongas is down 12 points, from two weeks ago, Donoghue is up 22 points, a 34-point swing. Among voters age 49 and younger, Tsongas leads by 7 points. Among voters age 50+, Tsongas leads by 12 points. Tsongas, widow of the late U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas, has the highest name recognition in the District. As such, it is possible, but not provable, that her support could be softer. Given the unpredictability of a never-before Day-After-Labor-Day primary, with momentum for Donoghue and comparatively flat support for Tsongas, the outcome could be closer than anticipated and an upset cannot be ruled out.

Ogonowski is Runaway Winner in Republican Primary: In a special Republican Primary election today, 5 days to the vote, Jim Ogonowski soundly defeats Thomas Tierney, 72% to 12%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. A tiny percentage of those who will vote on 09/04/07 will choose to vote in the Republican Primary, but even though likely Republican Primary voters are scarce, Ogonowski's lead is so overwhelming that he has to be regarded as the prohibitive favorite to capture the Republican nomination.

Filtering: 1,400 adults from Massachusetts 5th Congressional District were interviewed Monday 8/27/07 through Wednesday 8/29/07. Of them, 1,297 were registered to vote. Of them, 459 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, 146 were identified as likely to vote in the Republican Primary. Approximately 67% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after a candidate debate on Monday evening 8/27.

1
  Asked of 459 Likely Democratic Primary Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.7%

If the Democratic Primary for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Eileen Donoghue? Jamie Eldridge? Barry Finegold? Jim Miceli? Nikki Tsongas? Or some other Democrat?

29% Donoghue
15% Eldridge
9% Finegold
3% Miceli
40% Tsongas
3% Other
1% Undecided

2
  Asked of 146 Likely Republican Primary Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 7.4%

If the Republican primary for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Jim Ogonowski? Thomas Tierney? Or some other Republican?

72% Ogonowski
12% Tierney
8% Other
8% Undecided

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