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Republican Incumbent Musgrave Leads By 10 Points In CO4:
In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today, 10/18/06, in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave defeats Democratic challenger Angie Paccione according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KUSA-TV Denver. 20 days from the 11/7/06 general election, Musgrave gets 48% of the vote, up 2 points from an identical SurveyUSA KUSA-TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 9/21/06. Paccione gets 38%, down 4 points. Musgrave had led by 4, now leads by 10. Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness gets 10%.
Musgrave leads by 22 points among male voters, a 14-point improvement. Women are evenly divided.
Musgrave leads by 67 points among Republicans. Paccione leads by 66 points among Democrats, down from 79. Paccione leads Musgrave by 14 points among independents, but this is not enough to overcome the 20-point advantage Republicans have over Democrats among CO4 likely voters. Reform Party candidate Eidsness gets 20% of the Independent vote. Paccione runs strongly among the most educated voters and the highest-income voters. Musgrave leads 12:1 among those who approve of President Bush's performance in office. Paccione leads 5:1 among those who disapprove of Bush. President George W. Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Colorado's 4th Congressional District is 47%.
Voter interest in this contest has increased. 4 weeks ago, 56% of registered voters in CO4 were considered "likely" voters according to SurveyUSA's voter turnout model. Today, 65% of registered voters are "likely".
Democrats have targeted Musgrave as they attempt to re-capture control of the U.S. House. Musgrave was first elected to Congress in 2002.
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