Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10648

Geography Surveyed: NM 1st Congressional District
Data Collected: 11/03/2006 - 11/05/2006
Release Date: 11/06/2006 12:30 PM ET
Sponsor: KOB-TV Albuquerque

New Mexico CD1 House Race Too-Close-To-Call on Election Eve: Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid clings to the smallest possible advantage over Republican incumbent Heather Wilson, 24 hours till polls close, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV Albuquerque. Madrid had trailed in SurveyUSA's first poll, conducted before Mark Foley. Madrid led by 8 in the middle of media coverage over Mark Foley. At the wire, Madrid gets 50%, Wilson 48%, within the survey's 3.8% margin of sampling error. Males, as they have been, remain tied. Madrid's advantage is from females, but momentum there is with Wilson. Middle-income and upper-income voters are returning to Wilson in the campaign's final days. Lower-income voters are newly rallying to Madrid. The contest will be decided by voter turnout. Each vote in the District is critical. Wilson was first elected to Congress in a special election in June 1998. In 5 elections, she has never received more than 55% of the vote.

Filtering: 900 adults from New Mexico's 1st Congressional district were interviewed 11/3/06 through 11/5/06. Of them, 877 were registered to vote. Of them, 688 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 688 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.8 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Heather Wilson? Or Democrat Patricia Madrid?

48% Wilson (R)
50% Madrid (D)
2% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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