Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #11990

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 03/31/2007 - 04/02/2007
Release Date: 04/03/2007 2:00 PM ET
Sponsor: WHAS-TV Louisville

7 FURLONGS TO GO, LOTS OF JOCKEYING IN RACE FOR BLUEGRASS GOVERNOR NOMINATIONS

Democratic Primary - Lunsford Catapults Past Beshear and Richards into Tie with Henry: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 4/3/07, seven weeks to the 5/22/07 vote, businessman Bruce Lunsford and former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Kentucky Democratic primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. In an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Lunsford ran 5th, behind former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear and behind House Speaker Jody Richards. Today, Lunsford is at 20% and former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry is at 20%. Lunsford is up 13 points, from 7% to 20%, month-on-month. Henry is down 6 points, from 26% to 20%. In Eastern KY, Lunsford leads with 33%, up from 19% a month ago. Beshear today is 2nd with 21% in Eastern KY. In North Central KY, Lunsford leads with 23%, up from 6%. Henry is 2nd, at 17%, down from 23%. In greater Louisville, Henry still leads, but his support has been sliced from 43% last month to 28% today. Henry had a 32-point lead over Beshear in greater Louisville last month. Today, Henry has a 10-point lead over Lunsford, who has gone from 5% to 18%. In Western KY, Jody Richards continues to lead, but her advantage over Henry is cut from 10 points last month to 6 points today. Among those likely Democratic primary voters who identify themselves as Conservative, Lunsford's support has increased 6 fold, from 3% to 18%. Among moderates, Lunsford is up from 10% to 22%. Among voters age 65+, Lunsford is up 15, Henry is down 4. Among voters age 50 to 64, Lunsford is up 11, Henry is down 5. Lunsford began airing TV ads mid-March. Lunsford was endorsed by former KY Governor Julian Carroll at the end of March, just as interviews for this survey were about to begin. Henry was accused mid-month by a former employee of violating state election law. Contest is volatile. Expect much to change in the seven weeks until 5/22/07 Primary Day.

Republican Primary - Fletcher Opens Up a Lead in Tight Fight with Northup: In a Republican Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 4/3/07, seven weeks to the 5/22/07 vote, incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher now leads former U.S. Congresswoman Anne Northup, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican Primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll one month ago, Fletcher is up 7 points, from 33% to 40%. Northup is flat at 31%. Fletcher had led Northup by 2, now leads Northup by 9. The movement is largely among KY's female Republicans: last month, Northup led among women by 5. Today, Fletcher is up among women by 8. Among voters age 65+, Fletcher is up 25 points, to 62%. Northup is down 7 points, to 19%. Fletcher had led by 11 points among seniors, now leads by 43 points. Paducah businessman Billie Harper, whose support is flat month-on-month, and who remains in distant 3rd place, showed momentum among moderate Republicans, where his support increased from 13% to 28% month-on-month.

Filtering: 1,900 Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 3/31/07 through 4/2/07. Of them 1,623 were registered to vote, including 658 registered Republicans and 851 registered Democrats. Of them, 408 Republicans were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican Primary and 546 Democrats were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. These likely voters were included in the survey. Notation: For approximately 3 hours, midday 4/3/07, a version of this analysis contained incorrect references to SurveyUSA's 3/6/07 Kentucky data. Movement from March to April was briefly misstated. SurveyUSA apologizes. Results for today's 4/3/07 release were correctly stated at all times. Candidate movement from March to April was correctly summarized as of 2 pm ET 4/3/07.