Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12215

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 06/01/2007 - 06/03/2007
Release Date: 06/04/2007 11:40 AM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

In CA GOP Gold Rush, Fred Thompson leaps into 2nd-Place Tie with McCain, 7 Points Behind Giuliani: Eight months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest destabilizes and further tightens, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego. Rudolph Giuliani leads today, but by 7 points, down from a 13-point lead 4 weeks ago, on 5/7/07, and down from a 19-point lead 8 weeks ago, on 4/2/07. Half-In-Half-Out Fred Thompson has doubled his support in the past month, from 11% on 5/7/07 to 21% today. That puts Thompson into a 2nd-place tie with John McCain, whose support is flat month on month, 21% then, 21% now. Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 11%, largely unchanged from 12% last month. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is 5th, at 8%. Among Conservatives, Thompson is up 12 points month-on month, and has gone from 4th place to 1st. There is volatility among Hispanics, who make up 17% of likely Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model: Giuliani has lost 23 points month-on-month, down from 46% to today 23%. Thompson's support among Hispanics is up 5 fold, from 5% to 24%. Margin of Sampling Error is high for this small subgroup, but the movement is striking nonetheless. SurveyUSA tracking polls from 4/2/07 and 3/6/07 did not explicitly name Fred Thompson, so those results are not shown on the tracking graphs released today. To access that data for comparative purposes, go here.

No Movement At All on Democratic Side. Hillary Clinton 18 Points Atop Obama. In a Democratic Primary in California today, 8 months to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains on cruise control, as she has been in 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to March, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco and KGTV-TV San Diego. Here's the rundown, working backwards: Today, Clinton is at 46%, 18 points atop Obama who is at 28%. On 5/7/07, Clinton was at 48%, 21 points atop Obama, who was at 27%. On 4/2/07, Clinton was at 43%, 17 points atop Obama, who was at 26%. On 3/6/07, Clinton was at 44%, 13 points atop Obama who was at 31%. John Edwards has finished in 3rd place in all 4 SurveyUSA CA Democratic Primary tracking polls. Edwards is at 14% today, was at 15% on 5/7/07, was at 17% on 4/2/07, was at 10% on 3/6/07. All interviews for the 06/04/07 release were completed prior to the New Hampshire Democratic candidate debate which began at 7 pm ET on 06/03/07.

Filtering: 2,100 state of California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/01/07 through 06/03/07, with all interviews completed before the Democratic candidate debate on 06/03/07. Of them, 1,786 were registered to vote. Of them, 543 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Republican Presidential Primary, 720 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Democratic Presidential Primary. The CA Primary is in 246 days. The general election for President of the United States is in 519 days, on 11/04/08.

1
  Asked of 543 likely republican primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Newt Gingrich? Or some other Republican?

28% Giuliani
21% McCain
11% Romney
21% Fred Thompson
8% Gingrich
8% Other
3% Undecided

2
  Asked of 720 likely democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?

46% Clinton
28% Obama
14% Edwards
8% Other
4% Undecided

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