Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16521

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 05/06/2010 - 05/09/2010
Release Date: 05/10/2010 12:05 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

As Early Voting in California Begins, Poizner Ups the Bid Against Whitman for GOP Governor Nomination: In a Republican primary for California Governor today, 05/10/10, 1 month until votes are counted, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is losing ground to state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, according to SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Whitman gets 39% today, Poizner 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 18 days ago, Poizner is up 10 points; Whitman is down 10 points. 6 other candidates on the ballot remain in single digits. Among men, Whitman had led by 23 points, now trails by 4, a swing of 27 points to Poizner. Among voters age 18 to 49, Whitman had led by 19, now trails by 8, a swing of 27 points to Poizner. Poizner leads by double digits in the Central Valley; Whitman leads by double digits in the Bay Area, Northern Coast, and Inland Empire. The contest is volatile: additional swings are possible.

In the Democratic primary for CA Governor, Jerry Brown crushes his opposition, unchanged from SurveyUSA's previous poll. 6 other Democrats combine to take 13% of the vote; 19% are undecided. Brown served as California's 34th Governor, elected in 1974 and re-elected in 1978. Incumbent Governor Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is term limited; the state's term limit law does not apply to terms served before 1990, allowing Brown to run for the office again.

The GOP battle to face incumbent US Senator Democrat Barbara Boxer in November remains essentially unchanged. Today, former Congressman Tom Campbell defeats former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, 35% to 24%. State assembly member Chuck DeVore gets 15%. Limited movement since SurveyUSA's previous poll. 23% are undecided: Among men, Campbell had led by 8 points, now leads by 12; among women, Campbell had led by 5, now 10. DeVore is up 5 points among voters age 18 to 49, Campbell is down 5, Fiorina is down 10. Among voters age 50+, Campbell is up 6. In California's Inland Empire, Fiorina had led by 6 points, now trails by 5. Campbell's lead in the Bay Area is now smaller, but his lead in greater Los Angeles is now larger.

In a Republican primary for CA Attorney General today, State Senator Tom Harman edges Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley among voters who have a preference. But: 36% of likely voters are undecided, which means any outcome is possible.

In the Democratic primary for CA Attorney General, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris edges Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, among voters who have a preference. But: 28% of likely voters are undecided, and any outcome is possible. Incumbent Attorney General Jerry Brown is running for Governor.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,700 California adults 05/06/10 through 05/09/10. Of them, 2,273 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 548 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Republican Primary; 621 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Democratic primary. Early voting begins today, 05/10/10.

1
  Asked of 548 likely GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the Republican Primary for Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Bill Chambers? Douglas Hughes? Ken Miller? Larry Naritelli? Robert Newman? Steve Poizner? David Tully-Smith? Or, Meg Whitman?

3% Chambers
1% Hughes
2% Miller
1% Naritelli
2% Newman
37% Poizner
1% Tully-Smith
39% Whitman
14% Undecided

2
  Asked of 621 likely Democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

If the Democratic Primary for Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Richard Aguirre? Jerry Brown? Lowell Darling? Vibert Greene? Chuck Pineda Jr.? Peter Schurman? Or, Joe Symmon?

4% Aguirre
66% Brown
1% Darling
1% Greene
3% Pineda
1% Schurman
3% Symmon
19% Undecided

3
  Asked of 548 likely GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

California Republicans will also hold a primary for United States Senate. If the Republican Primary for US Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Tom Campbell? Chuck DeVore? Carly Fiorina? Or, Tim Kalemkarian?

35% Campbell
15% DeVore
24% Fiorina
3% Kalemkarian
23% Undecided

4
  Asked of 548 likely GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

California Republicans will also hold a primary for Attorney General. If the Republican Primary for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Steve Cooley? John Eastman? Or, Tom Harman?

22% Cooley
14% Eastman
29% Harman
36% Undecided

5
  Asked of 621 likely Democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

California Democrats will also hold a primary for Attorney General. If the Democratic Primary for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Rocky Delgadillo? Kamala Harris? Chris Kelly? Ted Lieu? Pedro Nava? Mike Schmier? Or, Alberto Torrico?

16% Delgadillo
22% Harris
11% Kelly
10% Lieu
8% Nava
2% Schmier
4% Torrico
28% Undecided

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