Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10538

Geography Surveyed: OH 2nd Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/14/2006 - 10/16/2006
Release Date: 10/17/2006 11:30 AM ET
Sponsor: WCPO-TV Cincinnati

Schmidt Edges Wulsin, Keeps OH2 House Seat for GOP: In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 10/17/06, Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt edges Democrat Victoria Wulsin by 8 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 3 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Schmidt gets 48%. Wulsin gets 40%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/20/06, Schmidt has gained 3 points and Wulsin has lost 2 points. Schmidt had led by 3, now leads by 8. Schmidt leads by 10 points among voters under 35. 4 weeks ago, Wulsin led this group by 6, a 16-point swing. Schmidt leads by 24 points among voters age 35-49, an 18-point improvement. Voters over 50 are evenly split. Schmidt leads by 15 points among men and by 3 points among women. Republicans support Schmidt 6:1. Democrats support Wulsin 12:1. Independents break 4:3 for Wulsin. Schmidt leads by 16 points among voters with household income over $80K, a 15-point improvement. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 82% support Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush's performance, 77% support Wulsin. President Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Ohio's 2nd CD is 51%. In the past month, voter enthusiasm has increased in this district. The percentage of "likely voters" in SurveyUSA's turnout model has increased from 62% to 69% of registered voters. 4 weeks ago, 49% of likely voters identified themselves as Republican, today 53%. 4 weeks ago, 31% of likely voters identified themselves as Democrat; today 29%. Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 10/14/06 - 10/16/06. Of them, 555 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.