Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25186
 
In Delegate-Rich California, 2 Weeks Till Super Tuesday: Bernie Asks, 'Joe, Who?' Bloomberg Now Catapults Into 2nd Place, with Buttigieg Nipping
At Biden's Heels for 3rd; Warren, Once the Progressive Darling, Now in Single Digits, Closer to Klobuchar & Steyer Than To Front-Runner Sanders:


For the past 5 months, Joe Biden has led in every SurveyUSA state of California pre-Super Tuesday tracking poll, even when it was obvious to some in December and January that Biden had, like Wile E. Coyote in the Looney Tunes cartoon, run out of cliff and was spinning his legs over a sheer precipice, waiting for gravity to take its inevitable toll.

Today, in SurveyUSA tracking poll #6, in research conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune in San Diego, and for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, after Biden and his family were denigrated during the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, after Biden failed to launch in Iowa and New Hampshire, on the eve of the Nevada caucus and 2 weeks till votes are counted in California, Biden falls to earth. Cue audio: Plop.

For the moment, the battle in California to be the 2020 face of the Democratic party stands:

* Bernie Sanders, 25%.
* Mike Bloomberg, 21%.
* Joe Biden, 15%.
* Pete Buttigieg, 12%.
* Elizabeth Warren, 9%.
* Amy Klobuchar, 6%.
* Tom Steyer, 3%.

Among California's Latinos (likely to vote Democratic on Super Tuesday), Biden had led Sanders 2:1, now trails Sanders 2:1 and nominally has less Latino support than Bloomberg. Among California's Asian voters, Biden had led Warren 2:1, now today runs 4th with 11%, behind Bloomberg (28%), Sanders (19%), and Buttigieg (16%). Among California's black voters, Biden had led with 47% of all black support at a time when a dozen Democrats were still in the race, today has 17% black support, behind the disrupter Bloomberg (41%) and Sanders (25%).

While Sanders' ascendancy has been gradual --- Bernie has never in 6 SurveyUSA tracking studies polled below 17%, on his way to today's 25% first-place showing --- Bloomberg has come from nowhere to hog the spotlight. Among seniors age 65+, Biden had 51% support in the Fall (when a dozen Democrats were still in the race); now Biden trails Bloomberg among seniors 27% to 21%.

Middle-class Democrats had backed Biden 3:1 over Sanders and 2:1 over Warren, but today middle-class voters like the billionaire, 25% for Bloomberg, 22% for Sanders and 15% for Biden. In union households, where Biden had 45% support in the Fall, Sanders and Bloomberg now combine to take 43% of the vote. In military households, Biden had 52% of the vote in the Fall, now 8%; Bloomberg and Sanders today combine for 54% of the military vote.

Half of all high-school educated Democrats backed Biden at Thanksgiving. Today, 3 out of 4 of those voters have peeled off and now burn for Bernie, who is at 48%. Among Catholic voters, where Biden for 3 months had led his nearest rival by 2:1, Biden today finishes 3rd behind Sanders (28%) and Bloomberg (24%). A month ago, among Democrats with a 4-year college degree, Biden and Warren tied for the lead. Today, both lose half their support to Bloomberg,

Elizabeth Warren, all but forgotten, finds herself in a no-woman's land. Among "very liberal" voters, she runs 3rd; among liberal voters she is tied for 4th; among moderates she runs 5th; and among conservatives she runs 3rd. Klobuchar has no evident tailwind coming out of her strong showing in New Hampshire. Steyer is not a factor.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 California adults 02/13/20 through 02/16/20. All interviews were completed after the results of the New Hampshire primary were known but before caucusing in Nevada had begun. Of the CA adults, 1,223 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 520 as likely to return a ballot before the 03/03/20 deadline. Note well: The outcome of the 02/22/20 Nevada caucus and the 02/29/20 South Carolina primary will affect the outcome of primary voting in California and 13 other states which report Super Tuesday results 03/03/20. Bloomberg, who is running a disruptive campaign (in the business-school use of disruptive, which is neutral, not critical), may by 03/03/20 be even more of a darling, with a ceiling higher than the 21% he polls at today, or Bloomberg may find that opposition researchers are just warming to the task, and he may see every unflattering word and deed from the past 40 years broadcast and webcast to a thirsty electorate just getting to know him. Biden may be crippled and broke by Super Tuesday, absent a strong performance in South Carolina. And Sanders will either find that his 25% showing today in California (matched by a 29% showing in a parallel SurveyUSA nationwide poll released today) is a ceiling, above which he cannot climb, or Sanders may discover that Democrats are sufficiently exorcised at the threat they perceive President Trump poses to the rule of law that they are able to swing the pendulum even further in the opposite direction, propelling Sanders to greater glory. All will snap into crisp focus in 15 days, on Wednesday 03/04/20.
 
In the Democratic primary for President of the United States, how do you vote? (candidate names rotated)
520 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Bernie Sanders 25%29%23%47%29%20%9%38%14%22%25%33%19%****30%24%28%52%32%22%15%29%18%33%35%32%17%10%**26%22%**24%20%25%39%**23%48%26%19%31%32%16%18%35%37%23%15%34%23%50%24%15%28%22%32%14%26%30%21%26%18%30%22%22%26%27%25%37%22%36%24%28%23%32%27%22%18%26%28%28%
Mike Bloomberg21%24%18%14%25%17%27%20%22%20%41%16%28%****25%20%21%14%18%25%18%16%26%18%14%23%20%33%**20%25%**22%24%23%12%**20%17%18%24%16%20%24%23%17%19%20%25%24%20%24%21%24%24%20%17%30%23%18%28%19%22%19%22%21%21%27%20%18%21%13%22%23%20%17%26%16%20%18%22%24%
Joe Biden 15%14%15%10%12%16%21%11%18%15%17%15%11%****11%16%12%5%14%15%19%14%16%11%11%19%16%15%**16%9%**13%21%9%18%**15%13%18%13%15%14%15%16%13%9%18%16%10%16%6%15%16%19%16%9%20%17%11%16%15%19%9%23%14%15%8%16%15%15%3%17%14%15%17%13%16%19%16%12%13%
Pete Buttigieg 12%11%12%10%8%16%11%9%14%15%3%5%16%****9%12%13%6%13%10%17%21%11%11%11%7%16%10%**11%10%**5%12%12%9%**12%5%9%15%8%9%16%12%10%10%14%8%12%12%3%12%13%5%12%15%10%10%13%7%12%13%14%7%15%11%17%11%7%13%20%10%12%12%5%10%13%13%11%14%8%
Elizabeth Warren 9%8%10%6%14%11%6%10%8%9%6%10%9%****6%11%5%6%7%10%12%8%9%7%8%5%13%9%**11%3%**16%4%9%15%**11%9%6%11%10%7%10%10%8%8%9%10%9%9%5%9%10%7%10%10%9%5%10%13%9%10%11%6%12%9%3%10%10%9%12%9%12%8%3%7%8%6%13%7%7%
Amy Klobuchar6%4%7%1%4%7%9%3%8%7%4%5%0%****8%5%3%2%2%7%9%3%8%6%7%2%6%9%**5%12%**3%6%7%3%**6%0%6%7%2%7%7%7%3%2%6%10%4%6%4%6%11%4%4%4%6%6%5%3%6%3%5%8%4%6%5%6%3%6%3%6%1%8%6%5%10%3%5%4%10%
Tom Steyer3%3%3%3%1%2%5%2%3%3%1%3%2%****1%3%3%4%4%2%1%3%3%8%4%1%2%0%**3%1%**2%3%2%2%**2%3%5%1%4%3%1%1%5%2%4%1%2%3%0%3%4%1%8%1%2%2%2%5%2%6%3%1%4%2%3%3%1%3%2%3%2%1%15%1%1%5%1%6%0%
Some Other Democrat1%2%0%3%1%1%0%2%0%1%0%1%3%****1%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%2%1%0%**1%1%**3%1%1%1%**1%0%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%2%0%1%0%1%2%1%1%1%3%1%2%0%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%2%0%4%0%0%0%3%1%
Undecided9%6%11%6%5%12%12%6%12%8%3%11%11%****8%8%15%8%11%8%9%7%7%6%9%9%8%14%**8%17%**13%9%11%2%**9%5%12%8%12%5%10%11%7%10%7%14%4%11%7%9%6%10%5%12%7%11%9%5%10%6%9%11%7%9%11%9%8%9%10%9%8%10%6%7%12%16%10%4%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%23%24%27%27%47%53%55%5%29%8%1%1%18%71%11%7%27%47%18%12%26%9%24%23%31%12%1%83%14%2%7%35%36%18%5%77%14%36%50%28%33%39%58%42%30%49%21%26%74%5%95%24%28%14%34%18%22%57%16%81%15%53%30%18%81%16%84%20%78%16%83%37%56%7%21%35%16%40%23%21%
 
When do you think the Democratic party will know who the party's 2020 nominee is?
520 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
March17%17%17%24%22%14%8%23%11%17%15%17%19%****22%16%11%22%16%17%16%11%17%14%24%14%14%15%**17%14%**18%20%10%22%**17%13%18%17%14%17%19%18%15%20%20%4%28%13%22%16%15%22%20%12%20%22%14%19%17%16%17%16%23%16%16%17%26%14%11%18%24%12%12%14%12%22%14%15%20%
April16%16%15%17%18%17%10%18%14%16%13%15%17%****18%16%9%11%12%15%26%8%17%10%9%19%17%23%**16%15%**16%13%18%17%**17%23%11%17%13%17%16%16%15%17%15%14%18%15%16%16%14%15%16%17%17%15%15%20%15%18%16%13%14%16%7%17%14%16%12%16%14%17%9%20%16%14%16%17%15%
May9%12%7%12%11%10%5%11%8%11%15%7%7%****7%9%16%10%10%9%10%12%9%21%9%6%9%11%**10%9%**10%9%12%6%**10%7%8%11%9%10%10%8%11%12%9%6%6%10%4%10%7%8%9%13%8%9%10%9%10%8%10%9%9%10%8%10%12%9%11%9%11%8%9%11%7%9%11%9%7%
June11%15%7%6%8%15%13%7%14%10%10%13%12%****9%11%9%6%9%14%8%11%11%8%6%12%16%7%**11%9%**18%8%11%13%**12%12%9%12%10%8%13%13%7%9%10%14%7%12%5%11%13%8%11%11%12%7%12%15%10%14%11%9%11%11%9%11%10%11%15%10%12%10%11%15%7%10%10%15%9%
Not Until Middle Of Convention31%29%32%27%22%29%43%25%36%29%33%32%34%****26%32%32%27%36%29%28%35%27%26%33%32%30%28%**31%26%**29%29%37%23%**28%28%34%29%33%29%30%31%30%23%30%43%28%32%34%30%38%29%28%28%27%33%31%27%31%30%28%36%29%31%41%29%26%31%31%30%24%34%40%30%36%28%31%29%33%
Not Sure17%11%22%14%18%14%21%16%18%18%15%17%11%****19%16%22%24%18%17%12%21%19%22%18%17%14%16%**14%27%**9%21%12%18%**16%16%20%15%21%19%12%14%21%20%14%19%13%18%20%17%13%19%15%19%16%13%18%11%17%14%18%16%15%17%17%17%13%18%21%16%15%18%19%10%23%17%18%15%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%23%24%27%27%47%53%55%5%29%8%1%1%18%71%11%7%27%47%18%12%26%9%24%23%31%12%1%83%14%2%7%35%36%18%5%77%14%36%50%28%33%39%58%42%30%49%21%26%74%5%95%24%28%14%34%18%22%57%16%81%15%53%30%18%81%16%84%20%78%16%83%37%56%7%21%35%16%40%23%21%
 
In an election for President today, who would win? Trump, no matter which Democrat runs against him? The Democrat, no matter which candidate the Democrats nominate? Or would it depend on who the Democrats nominate?
520 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Trump9%9%9%5%9%10%11%7%11%7%8%11%12%****17%8%4%4%6%10%12%5%8%9%8%5%9%20%**8%17%**17%13%9%0%**9%2%10%10%4%10%12%10%8%9%9%9%8%10%14%9%15%8%8%6%9%12%8%8%9%8%7%14%12%8%6%10%5%10%6%9%5%12%9%11%12%9%9%7%12%
The Democrat40%42%39%40%41%38%42%40%40%39%46%45%31%****37%41%37%52%39%41%36%32%42%50%34%41%41%40%**44%20%**46%34%44%43%**45%56%39%37%46%39%36%43%36%34%42%46%48%37%41%40%38%45%35%40%43%38%39%56%37%46%36%44%40%40%44%40%35%41%40%40%46%35%55%35%34%43%45%40%29%
Depends On Democrat Nominated44%44%44%49%44%45%38%46%42%48%43%34%54%****39%45%47%37%46%43%48%57%43%35%48%44%47%37%**41%57%**26%50%39%48%**40%33%43%48%39%43%48%43%46%47%46%35%41%45%41%44%45%42%45%44%46%44%44%33%46%36%50%39%45%44%48%43%51%43%42%45%43%47%25%49%45%40%40%48%50%
Not Sure7%6%8%6%6%6%8%6%7%6%3%9%2%****6%6%12%7%8%6%4%6%8%7%10%9%4%3%**7%6%**11%4%8%9%**6%9%8%5%11%7%3%4%11%10%3%11%3%8%4%7%2%5%13%9%2%5%9%2%8%10%8%4%3%7%2%8%8%6%12%6%6%7%11%4%9%8%6%5%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%23%24%27%27%47%53%55%5%29%8%1%1%18%71%11%7%27%47%18%12%26%9%24%23%31%12%1%83%14%2%7%35%36%18%5%77%14%36%50%28%33%39%58%42%30%49%21%26%74%5%95%24%28%14%34%18%22%57%16%81%15%53%30%18%81%16%84%20%78%16%83%37%56%7%21%35%16%40%23%21%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.