Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25229
 
On Eve of Washington State Democratic Primary, with Cyclone Winds Still Tearing Up the Electorate and Mowing Down Candidates,
Sanders and Biden are Tied; Early Voters Back Bernie; Late Warren Hold-Outs May Tip Popular Vote towards Joe; Hold Your Breath:


Resuscitated Joe Biden and heart-attack survivor Bernie Sanders are tied as Democratic Primary voters try not to lick their ballots, 96 surreal hours till votes are counted in the Washington State Democratic primary for President.

In SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle, in interviews completed after Super Tuesday, after Mike Bloomberg dropped out but mostly before Elizabeth Warren dropped out, the contest at this hour stands:

* Biden, 36%.
* Sanders, 35%.
* Warren, who was included in the survey but who subsequently suspended her campaign, 10%.
* One of the other Democrats still on the ballot but no longer running, 13%.
* The nominal 1 point separating Biden and Sanders is not statistically significant.
* The contest should be characterized as even; Biden should not be described as leading nor Sanders as trailing.
* Because Washington allocates its 107 convention delegates proportionally, the ultimate popular vote win may be symbolic.
* Both Biden and Sanders would receive approximately the same number of delegates, should the candidates finish within a couple points of each other.

Among Democratic primary voters who have already returned a ballot (36% of those interviewed), Sanders has a head start and leads by 7 points. Sanders benefits from the fact that 1 in 4 of those who already voted chose someone who is no longer campaigning. Among voters who say they are 100% certain to return a ballot before the 03/10/20 deadline but have not yet done so (53% of those interviewed), Biden leads by 9. Among the small and squishier remaining voters who say they are almost certain to return a ballot, Sanders leads by 5. For Sanders to win the Evergreen State popular vote, he needs every one of the "almost certain" voters to find their ballot in a pile of un-opened mail, return it, and then go to a friend's house and get them to do the same.

The bifurcated Democratic electorate in Washington state is, as elsewhere, split by age. Among seniors age 65+, Biden leads by more than 4:1. Among the youngest voters, Sanders leads 2:1. Those middle-aged voters younger than age 50 go for Sanders. Those middle-aged voters older than 50 go for Biden. White voters split. Latinx and Asian voters break ever-so-slightly for Biden.

Biden leads by 19 points among self-described moderates. Sanders leads by 8 points among liberals and leads by 37 points among those who identify as "very liberal." Independents may participate in a Democratic primary in Washington, and they break narrowly for Sanders. Those who identify as Democrats break narrowly for Biden. Among the plurality of primary voters who say the label "Democratic Socialist" is not a factor in how they will vote, the contest is tied. Among voters who say the label is a minor factor, Sanders leads. Among voters who say the label is a major factor, Biden leads.

Biden leads by 30 points among Protestants and by 5 points among Catholics. Sanders leads among voters who practice a different religion and among voters who do not identify with a religion. Gun owners narrowly favor Sanders, who has been criticized by other candidates for his past votes on firearms. Those who do not own a gun narrowly back Biden. Voters earning less than $80,000 a year narrowly back Sanders. Those who earn more than $80,000 a year break for Biden. Voters who live in a household were 1 or more individuals identify as LGBTQ back Sanders 3:1. Elsewhere, Biden leads narrowly.

When Democratic primary voters are asked, regardless of who they support, who has the best chance of defeating President Trump in November, 52% say Biden, 31% say Sanders. Of those voting for Sanders, 22% say Biden has the best shot at beating Donald Trump in November. Importantly, of Warren supporters who think Warren will not be the nominee, twice as many think Biden will win than think Sanders. This sense of Biden inevitability may influence those late-cycle pro-Warren voters who return a ballot with the knowledge that Warren has dropped out of the race.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Washington 03/04/20 through 03/06/20. All interviews were completed after the results of Super Tuesday 03/03/20 were known and after Bloomberg withdrew. Approximately 94% of all interviews for this survey were completed before Warren announced her intention to withdraw. It is not possible to know, of those interviewed after Warren's announcement, how many would have heard this news before completing the survey. Of the 1,200 adults, 1,048 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 949 likely to participate in either the 03/10/20 Washington state Democratic or Republican primary, of whom 550 are likely to request a Democratic ballot and are the basis for these findings. This research was conducted online.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington?
1200 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLikely Primary2020 Primary Vote2016 VoteDemocratic Socialist LabEducationIncomeReligionHomeUrbanicityMilitaryGun OwnerEvangelicalSingle ParentMarried ParentLGBTQRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibAlmost C100% CerAlready Biden Sanders Warren TrumpClintonMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganOwn RentUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoW WAE WAMetro Se
Yes87%88%87%79%89%89%96%83%92%89%**81%83%92%93%84%87%92%88%89%94%100%100%100%100%100%100%96%95%100%100%100%74%90%91%81%91%89%96%84%85%85%91%82%86%89%86%93%86%91%86%85%88%74%88%92%86%86%87%88%86%88%
No13%12%13%21%11%11%4%17%8%11%**19%17%8%7%16%13%8%12%11%6%------4%5%---26%10%9%19%9%11%4%16%15%15%9%18%14%11%14%7%14%9%14%15%12%26%12%8%14%14%13%12%14%12%
Not Sure0%-------------------------------------------------------------
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%31%24%26%19%55%45%69%4%12%15%26%38%30%11%17%37%18%9%13%48%30%36%35%10%29%37%30%27%33%19%38%42%31%33%36%23%16%22%39%63%37%30%48%22%15%85%26%74%14%86%6%94%19%81%8%92%29%21%50%
 
2Washington State will hold a presidential primary on March 10. Voters received ballots in the mail in late February. Not everyone has a chance to vote in a primary. Which best describes you? I am not interested in politics; I will not vote? I'm not sure whether I will have time to vote? I am almost certain I'll find time to vote? I'm absolutely 100% certain I will vote? Or I have already returned my ballot?
1048 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLikely Primary2020 Primary Vote2016 VoteDemocratic Socialist LabEducationIncomeReligionHomeUrbanicityMilitaryGun OwnerEvangelicalSingle ParentMarried ParentLGBTQRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibAlmost C100% CerAlready Biden Sanders Warren TrumpClintonMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganOwn RentUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoW WAE WAMetro Se
Not Interested / Will Not Vote 5%5%6%10%4%4%2%7%3%4%**7%6%5%4%7%6%5%5%3%2%0%0%0%---4%4%---12%4%4%9%3%5%5%4%9%4%4%7%7%4%7%3%6%4%6%2%6%3%5%4%6%3%6%6%4%5%
Not Sure Will Have Time 4%4%4%7%5%2%1%6%2%4%**3%6%4%2%7%8%3%4%3%0%0%0%0%---3%1%5%3%4%4%4%4%5%5%2%2%5%5%5%3%6%4%4%4%3%4%5%4%4%4%3%4%5%4%4%4%3%5%4%
Almost Certain I'll Find Time 13%14%12%19%17%11%2%18%7%14%**6%14%12%11%17%10%10%15%12%9%100%0%0%11%14%7%11%9%10%18%12%18%14%10%14%14%11%10%10%13%15%10%17%12%14%11%7%14%12%13%11%13%29%12%15%12%14%13%12%12%13%
Absolutely 100% Certain I Will Vote 48%49%46%47%49%45%50%48%47%47%**54%43%52%52%39%42%45%50%52%51%0%100%0%63%52%48%48%52%53%49%52%38%47%52%38%46%56%44%58%46%47%51%40%49%51%38%56%46%46%48%44%48%48%47%53%46%51%47%50%36%51%
Already Returned Ballot30%28%33%17%25%38%45%21%41%31%**29%31%28%32%30%33%37%26%30%38%0%0%100%25%34%45%34%34%32%29%33%28%31%30%34%31%27%38%23%27%30%31%29%28%28%39%31%30%34%29%40%29%16%31%24%32%28%30%29%43%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%28%24%27%21%52%48%71%4%12%14%27%41%29%11%18%38%19%10%13%48%30%36%35%10%32%40%30%27%33%16%40%44%28%35%37%25%15%21%38%65%35%30%49%22%16%84%27%73%14%86%5%95%19%81%8%92%29%21%50%
 
3In the Presidential primary, are you certain to vote a Republican ballot? Certain to vote a Democratic ballot? Or are you not certain?
949 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLikely Primary2020 Primary Vote2016 VoteDemocratic Socialist LabEducationIncomeReligionHomeUrbanicityMilitaryGun OwnerEvangelicalSingle ParentMarried ParentLGBTQRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibAlmost C100% CerAlready Biden Sanders Warren TrumpClintonMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganOwn RentUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoW WAE WAMetro Se
Republican Ballot30%31%30%27%31%27%37%29%32%35%**17%19%91%0%18%92%65%19%4%1%26%30%32%---78%2%61%20%14%28%31%30%25%34%30%49%29%34%17%35%20%23%28%45%37%29%42%26%62%25%24%31%33%29%4%33%32%41%24%
Democratic Ballot58%57%59%58%59%60%54%58%58%53%**75%61%6%97%51%6%22%64%92%96%45%58%63%100%100%100%12%92%34%69%72%55%58%59%63%52%60%45%62%49%70%55%63%66%60%43%55%59%44%63%30%63%48%59%56%59%87%55%54%51%63%
Not Certain12%12%12%15%10%13%8%13%11%11%**7%20%3%2%31%2%13%17%4%2%29%12%5%---10%6%6%11%14%16%11%11%12%14%10%6%9%17%14%9%17%11%12%12%9%12%14%11%7%12%29%11%11%12%10%12%14%8%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%26%24%28%22%50%50%71%3%11%14%27%43%28%10%18%38%19%10%14%52%33%36%35%10%33%42%30%27%33%15%40%45%27%35%38%26%15%20%38%67%33%29%50%21%17%83%28%72%14%86%6%94%20%80%9%91%29%21%50%
 
In the Washington State Democratic primary for President, how do you vote? (candidate names rotated)
550 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLikely Primary2020 Primary Vote2016 VoteDemocratic Socialist LabEducationIncomeReligionHomeUrbanicityMilitaryGun OwnerEvangelicalSingle ParentMarried ParentLGBTQRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibAlmost C100% CerAlready Biden Sanders Warren TrumpClintonMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganOwn RentUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoW WAE WAMetro Se
Joe Biden 36%37%35%23%35%37%54%29%44%34%**39%42%**39%29%**32%45%32%19%38%43%26%100%0%0%27%43%42%34%36%28%37%38%29%33%45%50%42%27%32%42%27%34%36%40%47%34%37%36%42%36%**37%34%37%18%39%37%26%40%
Bernie Sanders 35%32%37%55%41%27%12%48%21%35%**32%39%**34%35%**20%26%40%56%43%34%33%0%100%0%35%27%32%41%35%30%37%34%36%36%33%20%37%35%40%32%39%35%35%30%24%37%41%33%22%36%**33%39%34%54%32%33%38%34%
Elizabeth Warren 10%10%11%12%12%9%8%12%9%13%**6%4%**12%8%**5%6%12%19%7%10%13%0%0%100%2%14%4%10%13%11%7%13%10%13%9%6%6%12%13%11%9%10%10%13%5%11%5%12%1%11%**11%14%10%10%11%12%5%11%
Some Other Democrat13%16%10%5%6%20%23%6%22%12%**21%11%**9%24%**43%17%10%2%3%7%26%0%0%0%31%11%19%10%11%21%13%12%20%13%9%20%9%24%8%11%17%14%13%12%19%12%11%14%30%12%**14%9%15%12%14%15%27%8%
Undecided5%4%6%5%6%7%2%5%5%6%**3%3%**6%4%**0%6%5%4%10%6%3%0%0%0%4%5%3%4%6%9%6%3%6%5%4%3%6%2%7%4%8%6%5%4%5%5%6%5%5%5%**5%4%5%6%5%2%4%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%50%50%26%25%29%21%50%50%66%5%15%15%3%71%24%1%7%42%30%17%11%53%36%36%35%10%7%67%17%32%41%14%40%46%29%32%39%20%17%17%46%64%36%33%51%16%16%84%21%79%7%93%5%95%19%81%13%87%27%18%55%
 
5Regardless of who you plan to vote for and regardless of who you want to win, who do you think has the best chance of defeating President Trump in November? (candidate names rotated)
550 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLikely Primary2020 Primary Vote2016 VoteDemocratic Socialist LabEducationIncomeReligionHomeUrbanicityMilitaryGun OwnerEvangelicalSingle ParentMarried ParentLGBTQRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibAlmost C100% CerAlready Biden Sanders Warren TrumpClintonMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganOwn RentUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoW WAE WAMetro Se
Joe Biden 52%50%55%35%51%55%71%43%62%51%**49%59%**54%50%**29%62%55%33%44%59%45%93%22%31%52%58%52%51%56%36%53%57%41%52%62%66%56%37%51%59%42%47%54%58%63%50%48%54%70%51%**54%52%53%40%54%56%40%55%
Bernie Sanders 31%35%27%45%32%31%12%38%23%29%**37%31%**31%31%**55%25%25%51%34%26%36%3%69%17%26%26%26%35%27%46%33%24%40%33%22%19%26%40%34%25%41%34%30%26%26%32%39%29%16%32%**31%31%31%38%30%26%46%28%
Elizabeth Warren 6%7%6%10%7%4%5%9%4%8%**6%1%**7%4%**5%4%7%11%9%7%6%1%2%41%3%7%7%5%8%8%4%8%5%9%5%5%8%10%5%7%6%8%5%7%1%7%2%7%0%7%**6%10%6%7%6%5%4%8%
Some Other Democrat4%5%3%2%2%6%8%2%7%5%**0%6%**2%9%**8%7%3%1%4%2%8%0%0%0%13%2%9%3%4%3%3%6%5%3%4%7%2%5%4%4%4%4%5%3%6%4%5%4%10%4%**5%2%5%3%5%5%6%4%
Undecided6%3%10%9%8%4%4%8%4%6%**8%4%**6%6%**2%3%11%5%10%6%5%3%7%11%7%6%6%6%5%7%6%5%8%3%7%2%8%8%6%5%7%7%5%7%4%6%6%6%3%6%**5%5%6%12%5%7%4%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%50%50%26%25%29%21%50%50%66%5%15%15%3%71%24%1%7%42%30%17%11%53%36%36%35%10%7%67%17%32%41%14%40%46%29%32%39%20%17%17%46%64%36%33%51%16%16%84%21%79%7%93%5%95%19%81%13%87%27%18%55%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.