Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7474
In Virginia, At the Wire, Momentum Raises Kaine: 12 hours until polls open in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine defeats Republican Jerry Kilgore, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 656 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. This tracking graph tells the story. In June, the Republican Kilgore led by 10. In August, Kilgore led by 5. In September, Kilgore led by 3. In October, the Democrat Kaine led by 2. Today, Election Eve, Kaine leads by 9. Interviews for this survey were conducted before a last-second appearance by President Bush scheduled for this evening, 11/7, on behalf of Kilgore. It is unclear what impact President Bush's 11th-hour visit will have. Since SurveyUSA's most recent poll 3 weeks ago on 10/17, Kilgore has lost 13 points among male voters. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 15 among men. He finishes down 5. Over the summer, Kilgore led among women by 5. At the finish line, he is down 14 among women. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 19 among Virginia's whites. At the finish line, Kaine is up by 1. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 4 among Independents. At the finish line, he trails by 21. Over the summer, Kaine led by 23 points among Moderates. At the finish line, Kaine still leads, but now by twice as much, 46 points. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 11 among Suburban voters. At the finish line, Kaine leads by 9. As the suburbs go, so goes Virginia? We shall see. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open.
Filtering: 1,500 Virginia adults were interviewed 11/4/05 - 11/6/05. Of them, 1,242 were registered voters. Of them, 656 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Voters in Virginia will elect a Governor on Tuesday. If the election for Governor of Virginia were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jerry Kilgore? Democrat Tim Kaine? Independent Russ Potts? Or some other candidate?
656 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationChurchAbortionRegionGeocoding
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiNot SureShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral UrbanSuburbanRural
Kilgore (R)43%45%41%40%45%42%43%47%18%****83%6%36%82%24%7%31%49%42%53%27%41%49%73%22%41%51%31%40%46%37%43%47%
Kaine (D)52%50%55%54%50%53%53%48%79%****12%91%57%15%70%89%64%47%52%43%69%54%46%24%73%47%43%66%54%50%60%52%47%
Potts (I)3%4%2%3%3%3%2%3%1%****3%2%4%1%4%3%4%3%3%2%3%4%2%2%4%4%4%3%4%1%2%3%3%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%31%33%20%82%13%2%4%37%36%26%36%47%15%33%26%22%19%19%30%51%38%56%6%30%24%17%28%20%55%25%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.