Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22547
 
In Florida, 19 Weeks to GOP Presidential Primary, Trump Tops Carson and Rubio 2:1; Former FL Governor Bush Runs 5th;
Dem Clinton Dispatches Sanders 3:1; State's 29 Electoral Votes Go Red if Trump or Carson Face Clinton in General Election:

Hillary Clinton wins 3:1 a Florida Democratic Presidential Primary today and Donald Trump wins 2:1 a Republican presidential primary today, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 Orlando.

Trump gets 37% to Ben Carson's 17% to Marco Rubio's 16%, in research completed after the most recent GOP candidate debate. Ted Cruz runs 4th at 10%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is 5th at 7%. Trump gets 49% of the vote among Republican Primary voters who say that immigration is the most important issue that the country faces. Trump leads in all 5 regions of the state.

Clinton today gets 66% to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton is above 50% in every region of the state. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites, 9:1 among blacks.

* If Clinton and Trump are their party's nominees, Florida's 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Trump 47%, Clinton 43%.
* If Clinton and Carson are their party's nominees, Florida's 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Carson 47%, Clinton 44%.
* If Clinton and Rubio are their party's nominees, Florida is too-close-to-call: Clinton 46%, Rubio 45%.

Florida registered voters support a constitutional amendment to legalize medical marijuana, 2:1. Voters split on whether recreational use of marijuana should be legalized.

Voters by 5:3 favoring legalizing casino gambling in Florida.

Filtering: 3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed 10/28/15 through 11/01/15. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary and 826 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was "blue") in both 2008 and 2012.

 
1If the Republican primary for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot now, which Republican would you vote for? Donald Trump? Ben Carson? Carly Fiorina? Marco Rubio? Jeb Bush? Ted Cruz? John Kasich? Mike Huckabee? Or Some other Republican?
922 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Trump33719214540721299611222517193061417337003145182071041413689672251121162901381047726025411217377
Carson1607188332848516199157137176160001512711640262234117176578346559431162113513738
Fiorina281612689614153221432800241316921027027194168919118712
Rubio148777114224666351131541386514800139459848268164610234382325759201272115463728
Bush6935345102826155466624469006612323342910136131936232420195034251422
Cruz94573891040351975618644940086177912345301421237461936378871312281526
Kasich301416277159213126323000221716122142624818710133271210107
Huckabee102830613702100010001000100024223352534621340
Other1688624487051501160010065100812119639361000645
Undecided3015162115121417102901300024061990104112911119129822351184
Total9224864361191713213112906326645830514192200847156059727830385183208621343234622233723141987259192311210220
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%53%47%13%19%35%34%31%69%7%5%90%6%4%100%0%0%92%2%7%65%30%3%43%20%23%7%15%35%50%25%41%34%21%79%10%10%34%23%24%
 
2If the Democratic primary for President were today, and these were the only names on the ballot, who would you vote for? Hillary Clinton? Bernie Sanders? Or Martin O'Malley?
826 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton54223031166127168181192349244435715035054206527865252208246495686771902711811901621623803943143110207
Sanders1981009853366940891091411174177019807183926661048581730137610958775959139428604561
O'Malley251411654101114221941025022037144125214119889718111372
Other1578035831301112201502121454444144767111421345
Undecided4617286141411202601341110460138610209138710111818231851927311101210
Total82636945713118426125031551140595961844708260187792711235732835974861271102994142763002362485785085229178285
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%45%55%16%22%32%30%38%62%5%8%72%22%6%0%100%0%2%94%3%14%43%40%45%9%11%16%13%36%50%34%37%29%30%70%6%10%28%22%34%
 
3If the general election for President were today, and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton1036462574154246334302400636458572423973917941408478216811847440647483951611353715273503693013197176493292234353
Trump11386215171332403903753737655952104238588151311767831252226603994349423626073163431535313439362221917109111402264251
Undecided226981273558696492133131219515168949758446886912025103144923479088828259891361419634981
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
4Ok, what if it were Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson ?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton10654855801532543463114086574690771225689980314693790175108507407489911001651443895293533823143127536887307235367
Carson11185935241352323763753677515654100450638121181737751112226873683948922026069158422529308432355241877107119392262238
Undecided21710311534577155911261551861616835271825282521192892224424448092847753761411318584980
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
5What if it were Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton110350859516626335332142967454847912397411582115011580617912750842251397951661443875673703983163297747192313248380
Bush10475465011142193553583337135951958375276810216373498207625371274501972587716540247428840034021882895117361240233
Undecided25012712342618562103147514213172111151781015093951142410839501537103109879266821682115835972
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
6What if it were Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton1113517596156273362322429685489679524079117828150115811181130521415506107981751513935663754013213307836887329245385
Rubio10875755131242173673793427456442995395380596175768942156603663448720426261152416512293413359219868104122362260240
Undecided1998911041546440951045111721414724967674882571062577224521438372767742801191615664161
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
7What if it were Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Clinton11485306181672813693314497005998829242771458301591418121871515324195171061151791544125793904123303497996899335251396
Fiorina1013553461112198352351310703514192239537538815772183203625335294591922425114338248126538933718682798106347248214
Undecided23898140426472591071327112111116965674885888701262594344728489890908955941442118754775
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
8Now, what if the general election for President were today, and the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump? Who would you vote for?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Sanders9904545351622193282813816094565720216531127191479971517311845538345572901541353574953423512803016896796269227331
Trump11886475421322613983973937956564107151668121751877861612276754125851324326787164450565327450387239949104114429266275
Undecided22280142286467639213072017025277080586578785312632102184717468590768955901321613605479
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
9Ok, what if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Ben Carson?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Sanders962443519155208322278362600476272119744857291338871615510643238845169811411173514923283412792746895987269227319
Carson11596165441332503823943837766063101571738221481797861432196784084650022927281163431557310442384243916111116398267267
Undecided278122156348689691201581023226242987967976941046315340119355136661091011071075911316517209052100
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
10What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Jeb Bush?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Sanders104849755117423634129841063954607572316111476415612174717712747540448783981501343815293543832943127366595287242358
Bush1106583523122243361379365741596499848607841361717451342156503953647520727086167411522310411365231875107107388249255
Undecided2461011452664916490155425206132696746485728670123341094336224410099819763861601521825572
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
11What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Marco Rubio?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Sanders106550156416624834830441365245687772276111278515810976918613049340149788961601413925313683852983107556498302236365
Rubio11095935171222293753843507596755100050597991231737691162116663783848621126866151409541295415377221889107111385263243
Undecided22587138356771531021236261851426826661736881501223587344032539178829146991271614704878
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
12What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Carly Fiorina?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Sanders10945115831802623463064426525178800226681297871661367721811505024014959210716813340755236440031632077468104301246374
Fiorina10295604691062053593593127185246929475375910215572295203627346334572022495514836750626539035318984010099362251216
Undecided2771091673676897711216514252331925107856993869470145401184048356411892117100531201571920945095
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
13What's the biggest issue facing the 2016 candidates for President? The economy? Immigration? Education? National Security? Health Care? Climate Change? Or something else?
2400 Likely November 2016 VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Economy107053153913825135632638968259628731445342143819340142623836446220710700001514145013353783412777938497347231311
Immigration33318115237681121161052281530276292819393431809356169114370333004713714597137898524822261058793
Education8139411925201744377454224204713204713153427000022554193626265439282218
National Security4041802243485139147119285201635027272311096322199821931673700404066151187100164132883164936114100106
Health Care25811714145679254112146722192471874149307114938641097300025846801301059356961621337784090
Climate Change10756523021233451571599526781810831434261000092969273642238537282643
Other7841378202624285063666631281728252216381700007284123282414647730259
Not Sure6935341172624185124521071731151730162228130000182823391811214874281615
Total24001181121932254479374186515341171491962292146994974391950953478847993473107033340425834689211507458917226291771187223757546686
Composition of Likely November 2016 Voters100%49%51%13%23%33%31%36%64%5%7%82%12%6%41%41%16%40%40%20%35%42%20%45%14%17%11%14%37%48%32%38%31%26%74%8%9%32%23%29%
 
14Would you support or oppose a state constitutional amendment to legalize medical marijuana?
2712 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Support16768378392924395703747319459011713202411154748433184468243954077794326801702101862476527725646154735671109117140519373528
Oppose823404419881352453562236014351692795249819411747618915145927262332137169531542853742592952451506736886266188215
Not Sure21372141556844451239015241564116868032837751629938592625193776988374521131001927573674
Total271213141399435642859776107716351481922168361183105811174671005109159692811505311070333404258438101412449079847708301883204253842598816
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%16%24%32%29%40%60%5%7%80%13%7%39%41%17%37%40%22%34%43%20%45%14%17%11%16%38%46%34%37%29%31%69%8%9%31%22%30%
 
15Would you support or oppose a state constitutional amendment to legalize all forms of marijuana?
2712 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Support119063755324731342520556063060719541607531863021230461126828951934648811612914618845154941044232443975174104382270361
Oppose1264583681135246362520382883708910331438866736221263835426257851012949719524697195460600383463385266998113120397277356
Not Sure25893165538272501361231831180581972125436312567601215785222915551039611479611251331729635099
Total271213141399435642859776107716351481922168361183105811174671005109159692811505311070333404258438101412449079847708301883204253842598816
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%16%24%32%29%40%60%5%7%80%13%7%39%41%17%37%40%22%34%43%20%45%14%17%11%16%38%46%34%37%29%31%69%8%9%31%22%30%
 
16Do you support or oppose legalizing casino gaming in Florida?
2712 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceParty RegistrationParty Affiliation, RegarIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalEconomyImmigratNationalHealth CHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Support150579271325241346537566584185106120920888556638274521619350496633316610185209173248583666484569428545961100125457318506
Oppose935415520107172315340280655386576995714153501454053411853493961583801201646813131448229633028515977575100299225235
Not Sure273107166765779601331392520190592486129487813160821215780283117591179612786571261472828865575
Total271213141399435642859776107716351481922168361183105811174671005109159692811505311070333404258438101412449079847708301883204253842598816
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%16%24%32%29%40%60%5%7%80%13%7%39%41%17%37%40%22%34%43%20%45%14%17%11%16%38%46%34%37%29%31%69%8%9%31%22%30%