Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19169
 
1 Week To NC Primary: Marriage Amendment Leads 5:3; McCrory Coasts; Democratic and Down-ticket Primary Outcomes Less Clear:

In a primary election in North Carolina today, 05/01/12, one week until votes are counted, a constitutional amendment that would define marriage as between one man and one woman leads by a 5:3 margin, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV Raleigh. The measure passes today 57% to 37%, with majority support among men and women, black and white, rich and poor, and in all parts of the state. Opposition is most strong among Democrats and independents, but rises to a majority only among the relatively small number of voters who identify themselves as liberals. Among the 10% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballot, the measure leads narrowly, by 4 points. Among those identified as being likely to vote, the measure leads by 22 points. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6 weeks ago, little has changed.

With other candidates now out of the race, Mitt Romney easily wins the Republican Presidential primary with 55% of the vote; Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich all have insignificant, vestigial support.

In the Republican primary for North Carolina Governor, former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory wins with two-thirds of the vote, with five opponents each in single digits.

It is unclear today, seven days until votes are counted, which Democrat will face McCrory in the November election. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton gets 32% in the Democratic primary for governor today, narrowly ahead of former Congressman Bob Etheridge, who gets 23%. 4 other candidates are in single digits. Etheridge has a small advantage in the Raleigh area; Dalton leads elsewhere. But: 30% of voters today say they remain undecided in the contest, making any outcome possible.

In the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor, a similar situation: state personnel director Linda Coleman leads State Senator Eric Mansfield 41% to 23%, with 36% undecided. Mansfield draws support from more conservative Democrats and in greater Raleigh.

In the 5-candidate Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor, "undecided" leads 2:1, with 41% of voters not yet sure who they will vote for. Even among those who have already cast ballots, 20% say they cannot recall which candidate they voted for. 4 candidates get between 11% and 17% of the vote today; 1 candidate gets 5%. Any candidate may emerge.

 
Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this research. 1,945 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/26/12 through 04/30/12. Of the adults, 1,636 were registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, 1,127 were determined to be likely to vote or to have already voted in the 05/08/12 primary, and were asked questions about the marriage amendment. Of the likely and actual voters, 451 were further identified as being Republicans or unaffiliated voters who would cast a Republican ballot; 560 were identified as being Democrats or unaffiliated voters who would cast a Democratic ballot. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of registered voters), were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (23% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.
 
North Carolina voters will vote on a constitutional amendment that says, quote, "Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State." If you were filling out your ballot today, would you vote for? Or against? This amendment?
1127 Actual & Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
For57%61%54%48%57%57%66%57%55%49%59%78%44%47%79%55%88%77%47%17%**50%58%73%63%47%61%56%52%59%53%55%61%
Against37%34%41%41%38%37%32%39%32%38%37%19%48%49%19%39%12%18%44%77%**46%36%21%30%47%31%39%43%35%41%39%34%
Undecided6%6%6%10%5%6%2%4%13%13%4%4%8%4%1%6%0%4%9%6%**4%6%5%7%5%8%5%5%6%6%6%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Primary Voters100%47%53%21%27%30%22%72%21%18%82%36%47%15%6%91%17%26%32%14%5%10%90%20%29%51%33%39%28%34%19%32%15%
 
 
What recognition should same-sex couples have in North Carolina? No legal recognition at all? Domestic partner benefits from those private employers who choose to grant them, but no legal recognition? Legal recognition through civil unions? Or legal recognition through marriage?
1127 Actual & Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
No Legal Recognition39%38%40%37%36%41%44%38%45%30%41%54%31%30%54%38%67%49%29%16%**43%39%60%42%30%46%39%30%41%39%36%44%
Domestic Partner Benefits18%19%17%14%20%19%17%18%17%15%18%21%15%19%25%17%20%25%18%6%**16%18%14%19%18%16%17%22%18%15%20%15%
Civil Unions18%20%16%15%17%20%17%19%14%19%17%15%20%20%13%18%7%13%27%23%**18%18%11%17%21%12%20%21%13%19%18%24%
Marriage21%20%22%30%24%16%14%21%16%31%19%8%28%29%7%22%4%8%20%52%**20%21%11%15%28%20%20%25%24%19%21%15%
Not Sure5%4%5%4%3%5%7%4%8%6%4%3%6%3%1%5%3%4%6%2%**4%5%4%6%3%6%3%3%4%8%4%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Primary Voters100%47%53%21%27%30%22%72%21%18%82%36%47%15%6%91%17%26%32%14%5%10%90%20%29%51%33%39%28%34%19%32%15%
 
 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul? Or Rick Santorum?
451 Actual & Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Romney55%55%56%52%48%61%61%57%**48%57%56%**51%51%56%49%65%56%****46%57%50%61%54%45%56%65%51%61%57%55%
Gingrich11%14%8%7%5%14%19%11%**4%13%12%**2%22%10%15%10%6%****14%11%20%8%9%13%11%8%12%10%8%16%
Paul12%12%11%20%14%8%5%9%**22%9%9%**32%7%12%6%8%19%****15%11%9%8%15%15%9%13%12%12%15%6%
Santorum15%15%15%11%25%12%8%15%**14%15%15%**11%19%14%26%12%5%****17%14%11%16%15%18%16%9%17%12%14%14%
Undecided7%5%10%10%7%5%7%8%**12%6%8%**4%1%8%4%6%14%****9%7%9%7%7%9%8%6%8%5%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely GOP Primary Voters100%51%49%21%28%29%22%89%5%19%81%90%0%10%11%86%31%39%23%1%0%10%90%20%30%50%31%39%30%35%22%28%15%
 
 
4If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jim Harney? Scott A. Jones? Jim Mahan? Pat McCrory? Charles Kenneth Moss Or Paul Wright?
451 Actual & Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Harney3%2%4%5%2%3%1%2%**3%3%3%**0%6%2%5%2%2%****8%2%2%2%3%2%4%2%2%3%2%6%
Jones3%4%3%3%3%6%1%4%**1%4%4%**0%4%3%5%0%4%****6%3%2%3%4%2%6%2%3%3%3%3%
Mahan2%2%2%1%3%2%3%2%**3%2%2%**3%2%2%1%2%2%****0%2%1%2%3%0%3%3%2%3%3%1%
McCrory65%69%61%49%63%70%77%67%**51%69%64%**74%68%66%63%71%58%****67%65%72%68%61%71%56%69%69%61%71%53%
Moss3%3%3%6%4%1%1%2%**6%2%3%**0%2%3%3%3%4%****3%3%7%0%3%2%1%6%4%4%2%1%
Wright2%2%3%6%2%1%2%2%**3%2%2%**3%0%2%3%1%4%****3%2%1%2%3%2%3%3%2%1%1%7%
Undecided21%18%24%30%24%17%15%22%**34%18%21%**20%19%21%20%21%26%****13%22%13%23%23%20%26%16%18%24%19%29%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely GOP Primary Voters100%51%49%21%28%29%22%89%5%19%81%90%0%10%11%86%31%39%23%1%0%10%90%20%30%50%31%39%30%35%22%28%15%
 
 
5If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Dale Folwell? Dan Forest? Tony Gurley? Grey Mills? Or Arthur Rich? To vote for ...
451 Actual & Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Folwell13%12%14%6%11%11%22%12%**9%13%13%**5%15%13%13%15%11%****17%12%16%9%14%10%10%17%14%17%8%12%
Forest17%19%16%15%16%19%18%18%**12%18%18%**10%12%18%14%22%17%****24%16%17%14%19%16%15%23%24%11%13%19%
Gurley12%15%9%11%10%16%10%11%**11%12%12%**8%18%11%14%12%8%****11%12%17%14%9%12%14%9%7%4%27%8%
Mills11%13%10%12%8%15%11%11%**13%11%12%**8%17%11%10%12%11%****16%11%12%13%11%11%15%8%7%20%8%15%
Rich5%7%3%8%8%5%2%5%**3%6%6%**1%9%5%8%3%7%****12%5%5%7%5%3%6%8%4%5%8%4%
Undecided41%35%48%46%48%35%37%42%**53%39%38%**68%29%42%41%36%45%****20%44%33%44%42%48%40%34%45%43%34%43%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely GOP Primary Voters100%51%49%21%28%29%22%89%5%19%81%90%0%10%11%86%31%39%23%1%0%10%90%20%30%50%31%39%30%35%22%28%15%
 
 
6If the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Walter Dalton? Bob Etheridge? Bill Faison? Gary Dunn? Gardenia Henley? Or Bruce Blackmon?
560 Actual & Likely Dem Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Dalton32%38%28%30%35%30%35%30%37%29%33%**33%27%**33%39%38%25%40%31%44%31%27%31%35%32%32%33%32%32%32%35%
Etheridge23%26%21%14%23%22%34%25%20%15%25%**22%43%**24%20%21%25%23%35%22%23%18%20%28%21%22%31%13%15%38%22%
Faison5%4%5%2%2%8%4%6%3%5%5%**5%4%**5%6%3%6%4%3%6%4%3%5%5%3%5%6%5%4%6%2%
Dunn5%6%3%4%7%4%3%5%2%6%4%**4%8%**5%4%2%8%3%0%6%4%4%4%5%4%4%7%8%3%0%9%
Henley3%2%4%6%2%2%2%4%3%6%2%**3%0%**3%1%2%3%3%7%10%2%3%5%2%2%5%1%5%3%2%1%
Blackmon2%3%1%6%2%0%2%2%1%3%2%**2%0%**2%3%2%3%1%0%2%2%1%4%2%3%2%2%3%1%3%0%
Undecided30%20%38%37%28%33%20%28%34%36%29%**31%18%**29%27%32%29%26%24%9%32%44%31%23%34%29%20%34%43%19%31%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Dem Primary Voters100%44%56%20%26%32%21%57%35%19%81%0%94%6%2%94%8%18%35%25%8%9%91%22%27%51%35%39%25%32%18%35%16%
 
 
7If the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Linda Coleman? Or Eric Mansfield?
560 Actual & Likely Dem Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyAlready Voted?EducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Coleman41%41%41%38%45%37%46%40%42%45%40%**41%43%**41%30%35%39%50%55%61%39%31%35%48%40%41%47%43%45%39%35%
Mansfield23%28%19%27%17%23%25%21%23%21%23%**23%14%**23%39%29%26%14%20%27%22%21%30%20%24%24%21%19%12%33%21%
Undecided36%31%41%35%38%40%29%39%36%34%37%**36%43%**36%31%36%35%36%25%13%39%48%35%31%36%34%33%38%42%28%44%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Dem Primary Voters100%44%56%20%26%32%21%57%35%19%81%0%94%6%2%94%8%18%35%25%8%9%91%22%27%51%35%39%25%32%18%35%16%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.