Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18116
 
1 MO to KY Gov Primary, Williams-Farmer Atop GOP Field, But Incumbent Democrat Beshear Holds Statehouse Against Any Challenger:

The Republican ticket of David Williams and Richie Farmer dominates two other Republican tickets in the race for the GOP nomination for Governor of Kentucky and the right to face incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear in November, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Courier-Journal newspaper and WHAS-TV in Louisville. But, the Democratic ticket of Beshear and Jerry Abramson defeats all 3 Republican tickets in hypothetical head-to-head matchups today, receiving more than 50% of the vote no matter the Republican nominee.

In the 05/17/11 Republican Primary, Williams-Farmer gets 49% today, the ticket of Phil Moffett and Mike Harmon gets 14%, and the ticket of Bobbie Holsclaw and Bill Vermillion gets 12%. Williams-Farmer is weak nowhere, but uniquely strong in Eastern KY, where the ticket gets 65% of the Republican primary vote. Holsclaw-Vermillion is strong in greater Louisville. Moffett-Harmon is strong in North Central KY. Williams-Farmer runs well with Tea Party supporters and gun owners. A quarter of likely GOP Primary voters are undecided. Where the undecided voters go will influence the final primary outcome.

When a larger group of likely November general election voters is asked today about hypothetical match-ups for Governor, the Democratic ticket of Beshear-Abramson defeats all comers:

* Against Republicans Williams-Farmer, Beshear-Abramson wins 51% to 39%.
* Against Republicans Moffett-Harmon, Beshear-Abramson wins 54% to 34%.
* Against Republicans Holsclaw-Vermillion, Beshear-Abramson wins 53% to 34%.

 
Filtering: 2,500 state of Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/08/11 through 04/13/11. Of the adults, 2,198 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 507 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/17/11 Republican Primary, and only that group of 507 Republicans was asked about the Republican primary. Of the 2,198 registered voters, 1,589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in a November general election, and that group of 1,589 likely November voters was asked the hypothetical November head-to-head matchup questions.

29% of the Kentucky adults interviewed for this poll were contacted on their cellphone: SurveyUSA, extrapolating from the most recently available government data, calculates that 29% of Kentucky adults do not use a home telephone, and rely on a cellphone to make and receive phone calls. As such, 29% of the Kentucky adults interviewed for this survey were interviewed on a cell phone, by live operators who hand-dialed each call. When SurveyUSA filtering was applied, 23% of likely GOP Primary voters were cellphone respondents, 22% of likely November general election primary voters were cellphone respondents. Cellphone respondents are 3 times more likely to be "undecided" in the primary, and twice as likely to be "undecided" in the general election, but otherwise, in this set of data, cellphone respondents with a candidate preference do not affect the outcome of any contest, except to take an inconsequential point or two away from Moffett-Harmon in the 05/17/11 Primary.

 
If the Republican Primary for Kentucky Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Bobbie Holsclaw and Bill Vermillion? Phil Moffett and Mike Harmon? Or David Williams and Richie Farmer?
507 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllInterviewed OnGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%CellphonLandlineMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Holsclaw / Vermillion12%9%13%13%10%11%10%11%15%10%13%12%**12%****11%16%10%10%18%15%**14%10%11%17%9%10%21%11%12%13%11%7%25%7%8%
Moffett / Harmon14%6%17%16%12%14%12%15%16%13%15%15%**14%****14%15%13%16%11%12%**16%13%14%11%19%14%19%14%15%13%16%13%11%22%5%
Williams / Farmer49%35%54%53%44%41%51%50%52%48%51%49%**49%****50%47%35%53%35%47%**47%51%51%47%46%53%37%54%37%47%51%51%44%43%65%
Undecided25%51%17%18%33%35%26%24%17%29%21%24%**25%****25%22%42%21%36%25%**24%25%24%25%26%24%22%21%36%27%22%28%20%28%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%23%77%54%46%15%33%31%22%47%53%95%3%100%0%0%69%21%6%60%11%26%2%46%54%67%22%11%78%19%69%29%43%57%26%26%31%17%
 
 
2If the general election for Governor were today, and the only 2 tickets on the ballot were the Republican ticket of Bobbie Holsclaw and Bill Vermillion, and the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Jerry Abramson, which ticket would you vote for?
1589 Likely November VotersAllInterviewed OnGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%CellphonLandlineMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Holsclaw / Vermillion (R)34%30%35%38%30%36%36%31%34%36%32%35%14%62%15%33%54%22%9%62%9%34%**34%34%38%29%27%46%17%38%27%34%35%35%34%34%34%
Beshear / Abramson (D)53%48%54%51%55%50%50%54%56%50%55%52%70%24%74%45%32%68%80%25%83%50%**54%52%48%57%61%41%73%49%60%51%54%51%57%50%54%
Undecided13%22%11%11%15%15%14%14%10%14%13%13%17%14%11%22%15%10%11%13%8%16%**12%14%13%13%11%14%10%13%13%14%11%14%10%16%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%22%78%48%52%13%30%31%26%43%57%93%5%39%55%6%45%34%15%35%36%26%3%43%57%57%27%15%60%36%63%35%43%57%23%27%34%16%
 
 
3What if the only 2 tickets on the ballot were the Republican ticket of Phil Moffett and Mike Harmon, and the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Jerry Abramson?
1589 Likely November VotersAllInterviewed OnGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%CellphonLandlineMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Moffett / Harmon (R)34%29%35%38%30%36%37%32%32%37%32%35%14%62%14%38%54%21%9%65%8%30%**35%33%39%27%28%46%17%39%26%34%35%34%32%37%31%
Beshear / Abramson (D)54%50%55%51%56%49%50%56%58%49%57%53%69%25%75%43%31%70%81%25%84%52%**54%53%48%61%61%41%75%49%62%52%55%50%60%49%57%
Undecided13%21%10%11%14%15%13%13%10%14%12%12%16%13%11%20%15%9%10%10%8%18%**11%14%13%12%11%13%8%12%13%14%11%16%8%14%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%22%78%48%52%13%30%31%26%43%57%93%5%39%55%6%45%34%15%35%36%26%3%43%57%57%27%15%60%36%63%35%43%57%23%27%34%16%
 
 
4What if the only 2 tickets on the ballot were the Republican ticket of David Williams and Richie Farmer, and the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Jerry Abramson?
1589 Likely November VotersAllInterviewed OnGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%CellphonLandlineMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Williams / Farmer (R)39%36%40%44%35%43%42%38%36%42%37%40%19%68%19%42%60%27%9%68%12%41%**39%39%44%33%31%53%19%46%27%39%40%44%35%38%43%
Beshear / Abramson (D)51%48%52%48%54%42%51%51%56%48%53%50%69%22%73%42%30%66%81%24%82%47%**53%50%46%57%59%37%73%45%62%50%52%46%58%51%46%
Undecided10%16%8%8%11%14%8%11%8%10%10%9%12%10%8%15%10%7%10%9%6%12%**8%11%10%10%9%10%7%9%10%11%8%10%7%11%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%22%78%48%52%13%30%31%26%43%57%93%5%39%55%6%45%34%15%35%36%26%3%43%57%57%27%15%60%36%63%35%43%57%23%27%34%16%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.