Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19940
 
New Jersey Safely Blue, 18 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Incumbent Democrat Menendez Cruises to Easy Re-Election in U.S. Senate Contest:

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/19/12, New Jersey's 14 electoral votes remain safely blue, with Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. Obama's entire margin of victory comes from women, where he leads by 27 points. The contest is tied among men. Obama leads among young and old, the educated and the less educated. Romney has a narrow 48% to 45% advantage among New Jersey's white voters, but that is offset by Obama's strong showing among the state's African Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics. Romney ties Obama among upper income voters, but Obama leads decisively among middle-income and lower-income voters. Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama. Obama has a Plus 12 Net Favorability in the state. Romney has a Minus 12 Net Favorability in the state.

In an election for U.S. Senator from New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Robert Menendez today defeats Republican challenger Joe Kyrillos 53% to 33%. Menendez is at or above 50% in every age group and at every income level. Kyrillos challenges Menendez in South Jersey, but Menendez leads 5:3 in Central Jersey and 2:1 in North Jersey. Menendez has a Plus 16 Net Favorability. Kyrillos has a Plus 7 Net Favorability - but, 18 days until votes are counted, 55% of New Jersey likely voters either have no opinion at all of Kyrillos or are neutral on him.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of NJ adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 628 are registered to vote in New Jersey. Of the registered, 577 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1 If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Mitt Romney (R)40%47%33%38%36%41%45%37%43%48%24%27%23%29%43%28%42%81%8%51%76%40%9%28%43%41%29%36%46%33%37%54%
Barack Obama (D)54%47%60%57%55%54%48%56%51%45%74%66%70%63%51%69%50%15%88%37%21%51%88%64%51%52%61%60%47%61%55%41%
Other2%3%2%1%4%1%3%2%2%2%1%2%4%2%2%3%2%1%1%4%1%3%1%3%2%1%4%1%1%2%3%1%
Undecided4%3%5%5%5%4%4%5%4%5%1%5%2%5%4%0%5%3%3%8%2%7%2%5%3%5%5%3%6%5%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%
 
2If the election for United States Senator from New Jersey were today, who would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Joe Kyrillos? Democrat Bob Menendez? Or one of the other candidates?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Joe Kyrillos (R)33%40%28%28%32%36%39%30%37%41%21%14%26%21%38%21%36%70%7%40%67%34%6%26%33%36%22%32%39%28%32%43%
Bob Menendez (D)53%49%56%52%53%50%57%53%53%47%69%59%59%50%54%71%49%18%81%44%29%55%74%54%51%53%55%54%51%60%50%45%
Other5%4%5%5%7%3%4%6%3%4%7%6%7%5%5%8%4%1%4%8%1%3%6%5%6%4%11%3%3%5%5%4%
Undecided9%7%11%15%8%11%1%11%7%8%3%21%8%24%4%1%11%12%9%7%3%8%14%15%9%7%13%11%6%7%12%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%
 
3Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Favorable48%43%53%49%50%48%46%49%47%39%73%56%65%56%46%62%45%15%79%33%17%45%82%57%44%48%57%53%42%54%51%37%
Unfavorable36%42%32%31%34%39%43%33%41%46%15%18%27%23%41%21%40%72%11%46%72%36%8%28%40%37%25%34%43%29%33%52%
Neutral14%14%13%20%13%12%11%16%11%13%6%26%9%20%12%16%13%13%10%18%11%17%9%14%15%13%18%12%13%16%13%11%
No Opinion1%2%1%1%3%1%0%2%1%1%6%0%0%1%2%1%1%0%1%3%0%2%1%0%1%2%0%1%2%1%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%
 
4Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Favorable33%37%29%30%31%33%38%31%35%38%28%16%29%26%35%27%34%68%11%36%67%30%9%29%34%34%25%34%35%29%30%43%
Unfavorable45%35%54%48%46%44%43%47%44%41%64%44%50%47%45%52%44%8%73%39%19%43%72%47%45%45%48%50%41%55%40%37%
Neutral19%24%15%18%20%20%17%19%19%19%5%34%17%27%16%17%20%22%12%24%11%25%16%21%18%19%23%14%21%14%25%19%
No Opinion3%3%2%4%2%3%2%3%2%1%4%6%5%0%3%4%2%2%4%0%3%2%3%3%3%2%3%2%2%2%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%
 
5Is your opinion of Bob Menendez ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Favorable39%39%39%29%35%46%49%32%47%34%49%51%49%39%39%60%34%20%58%29%25%36%62%51%33%38%45%38%37%44%36%36%
Unfavorable23%30%18%21%22%23%28%22%25%27%25%11%18%15%26%17%25%42%8%31%48%22%6%21%24%24%17%22%28%18%27%29%
Neutral26%24%27%30%36%19%18%33%19%28%12%31%20%33%23%18%28%27%21%31%22%31%20%18%27%29%27%27%25%28%26%23%
No Opinion11%6%16%21%8%11%6%14%9%11%14%7%13%12%11%5%13%12%12%9%6%10%12%10%16%9%11%13%10%10%11%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%
 
6Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
577 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KN NJCentral S NJ
Favorable26%30%22%22%22%31%27%22%30%28%23%17%25%23%27%19%27%57%8%24%51%19%16%28%24%26%27%23%28%21%29%30%
Unfavorable19%19%19%23%13%19%21%18%20%17%19%20%27%21%18%31%16%6%27%20%7%21%29%19%17%20%14%21%20%23%19%13%
Neutral33%33%33%30%41%29%33%36%30%33%28%41%31%38%32%37%32%22%35%40%29%39%29%27%32%36%41%33%29%33%31%36%
No Opinion22%18%26%25%24%21%18%24%20%21%30%23%16%18%24%13%24%15%31%16%12%21%26%26%27%18%18%24%23%24%21%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%24%28%29%20%51%49%64%13%15%8%26%74%19%81%28%44%25%24%44%25%19%30%51%20%35%45%41%34%26%