Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18168
 
Early Look at 2012 WA Governor Match-Ups Reveals Uphill Battle For Democrats: 18-months ahead of the 2012 election for Governor of Washington state, a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING5-TV in Seattle offers early encouragement to Republicans, who hope to take the statehouse away from incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire. Four hypothetical head-to-head match-ups were tested.

* Rob McKenna (R) 52%, Gregoire (D) 40%.
* Rob McKenna (R) 48%, Jay Inslee (D) 41%.
* Dave Reichert (R) 48%, Gregoire (D) 44%.
* Reichert (R) 46%, Inslee (D) 44%.

In every match-up, Democrats lead among voters age 65+, who are the most reliable voters, and Democrats trail among the youngest voters, who are the least reliable. This survey is not, by design, of "likely" voters, since the actual candidates who will be on the 2012 ballot are today unknown, but a survey of "registered" voters. The poll was conducted at a time when a Democrat is in the White House and Americans are sour on his performance and sour on the direction of the country. This unhappiness at the national level may or may not have dampened enthusiasm for Democrats at the state and local level. Governor Gregoire's job approval, in SurveyUSA's most recent poll released 04/20/11, is at 37%. Her job dis-approval is at 61%, which is a net "Minus 24" job approval.

 
This survey includes Cell Phone Respondents and Landline Respondents: 700 Washington state adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/27/11 and 04/28/11, including 20% who use a cell phone as their only, or primary way to make and receive phone calls, and 80% who were interviewed using recorded voice on their landline home telephone. Cell phone respondents are crosstabbed against landline respondents, and in these results, show themselves to be more likely to be "undecided" about how they might vote, but otherwise not appreciably different than the landline respondents.
 
1In 2012, Washington will elect a governor. If you were to vote for Governor today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Christine Gregoire, who prefers the Democratic party, and Rob McKenna, who prefers the Republican party, who would get your vote?
610 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMember Of Tea PaParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCell Phone / LanRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoCell PhoLandlineWestern Eastern Metro Se
Gregoire (D)40%35%46%41%38%37%49%39%42%40%**22%53%5%47%5%77%29%12%43%78%45%37%37%41%36%39%43%
McKenna (R)52%60%44%53%51%57%46%52%53%53%**77%29%92%46%93%18%59%83%49%14%51%53%47%53%54%55%50%
Undecided7%5%10%6%12%6%5%9%5%7%**0%17%3%8%2%5%12%5%8%9%4%10%16%5%10%6%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%18%56%44%83%2%6%9%11%81%23%34%40%30%44%22%46%54%20%80%26%19%55%
 
 
2What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Christine Gregoire who prefers the Democratic party, and Dave Reichert, who prefers the Republican party?
610 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMember Of Tea PaParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCell Phone / LanRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoCell PhoLandlineWestern Eastern Metro Se
Gregoire (D)44%39%48%37%43%44%55%40%48%45%**18%47%5%52%8%80%36%12%50%79%50%39%38%45%41%39%47%
Reichert (R)48%52%43%52%49%49%39%50%45%47%**74%41%94%40%88%17%50%78%43%14%43%52%42%49%50%53%45%
Undecided8%8%8%11%8%8%5%9%7%8%**8%11%1%8%4%4%14%10%7%7%7%9%20%5%10%8%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%18%56%44%83%2%6%9%11%81%23%34%40%30%44%22%46%54%20%80%26%19%55%
 
 
3What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Jay Inslee, who prefers the Democratic party, and Rob McKenna, who prefers the Republican party?
610 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMember Of Tea PaParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCell Phone / LanRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoCell PhoLandlineWestern Eastern Metro Se
Inslee (D)41%36%46%40%38%41%48%39%44%42%**26%39%8%47%6%81%29%14%41%79%44%39%36%42%40%37%43%
McKenna (R)48%55%41%46%52%48%46%49%47%48%**64%43%91%41%90%11%56%78%47%13%48%49%43%50%48%54%47%
Undecided11%9%13%14%10%11%6%12%9%10%**10%17%2%11%4%8%15%8%12%8%8%12%21%8%13%9%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%18%56%44%83%2%6%9%11%81%23%34%40%30%44%22%46%54%20%80%26%19%55%
 
 
4What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Jay Inslee who prefers the Democratic party, and Dave Reichert who prefers the Republican party?
610 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMember Of Tea PaParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradCell Phone / LanRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoCell PhoLandlineWestern Eastern Metro Se
Inslee (D)44%40%49%42%39%48%52%40%50%46%**21%38%5%52%8%84%32%14%49%79%48%41%39%46%41%38%48%
Reichert (R)46%51%41%50%49%42%41%49%42%44%**78%45%92%38%85%13%51%77%42%13%45%47%42%47%46%50%45%
Undecided10%9%10%8%12%10%7%10%9%10%**0%17%3%10%7%4%17%9%9%8%8%11%19%7%13%12%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%18%56%44%83%2%6%9%11%81%23%34%40%30%44%22%46%54%20%80%26%19%55%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.