Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20768
 
Fletcher Emerges as Clear Front Runner in San Diego Special Election to Erase Filner Stain:

One month till early voting begins in the special election to replace Bob Filner as Mayor of San Diego, Nathan Fletcher emerges with a strong coalition that puts him atop Kevin Faulconer, who finishes 2nd today, and David Alvarez, who finishes 3rd.

Fletcher gets 30% of the votes in a crowded field, with broad support from middle-aged voters, Democrats, whites and Asians. Fletcher's coalition includes the most educated and the most affluent. Voters focused on Leadership and Reaching Across Party Aisle pick Fletcher.

Faulconer gets 22% today, backed by Republicans, conservatives, men and seniors. Voters focused on integrity in government pick Faulconer.

David Alvarez gets 17% today. He is backed by Hispanics, young voters, liberals and those with the least formal education.

If no one candidate receives 50% of the votes in the 11/19/13 special election, a runoff will follow. In head-to-head matchups for the hypothetical runoff, SurveyUSA finds:

* Fletcher defeats Faulconer 44% to 30%.
* Fletcher defeats Alvarez 52% to 24%.
* Faulconer and Alvarez effectively tie, 38% Faulconer, 35% Alvarez.

Cell-phones and home-phones are included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 09/19/13 through 09/23/13. Of the adults, 686 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 527 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the special election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If the special election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Nathan Fletcher30%30%30%16%34%41%27%25%35%31%25%23%48%20%32%24%38%19%40%21%34%28%16%44%25%23%24%35%27%28%34%
Mike Aguirre9%9%9%9%9%10%9%9%9%11%12%5%6%10%9%11%4%11%9%8%8%12%7%8%12%11%13%7%16%7%8%
Kevin Faulconer22%26%18%10%24%25%31%17%28%28%10%13%23%18%23%32%14%31%9%51%10%18%48%17%10%12%22%25%20%21%26%
David Alvarez17%17%17%43%7%7%13%24%10%9%16%42%5%28%15%14%30%10%18%3%24%19%10%11%30%31%21%10%7%24%15%
Bruce Coons2%3%1%2%2%3%2%2%3%2%2%2%0%0%3%2%2%1%4%1%2%4%1%3%2%2%1%3%2%0%4%
Other4%6%3%4%3%5%4%4%5%2%3%7%10%0%5%2%4%0%2%3%2%9%6%2%7%5%2%6%5%7%1%
Undecided15%8%22%16%21%8%14%19%11%16%32%9%9%24%13%15%7%27%17%13%19%10%13%15%14%16%16%14%23%14%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
If no one candidate wins a majority of the votes in the November election, there will be a runoff election between the top two finishers. In the runoff election, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Nathan Fletcher and Mike Aguirre, who would you vote for?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Fletcher53%58%47%46%60%56%47%53%52%56%37%45%66%58%51%49%66%46%49%49%53%54%44%62%52%40%53%56%43%57%57%
Aguirre23%23%24%23%20%23%28%22%25%24%25%22%20%25%23%31%13%21%23%21%23%26%27%18%29%39%21%23%33%21%21%
Undecided24%19%29%31%20%21%24%25%23%20%39%33%14%17%26%20%21%32%28%29%24%19%29%21%19%21%26%21%24%22%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
What if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and Kevin Faulconer?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Fletcher44%45%43%39%47%50%39%43%45%45%34%44%48%57%41%37%53%35%56%29%50%46%19%53%60%35%44%47%37%48%47%
Faulconer30%36%24%23%28%29%42%26%35%37%23%16%29%22%32%40%23%35%16%53%18%30%55%26%12%43%28%30%29%29%33%
Undecided26%19%32%38%25%21%19%31%20%18%43%40%23%21%27%23%24%30%28%18%32%24%26%20%28%22%27%23%34%22%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and David Alvarez?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Fletcher52%60%45%47%62%54%44%55%50%59%44%34%65%62%50%49%59%48%54%53%50%55%47%59%50%42%52%56%44%50%63%
Alvarez24%24%24%36%16%18%29%25%23%18%17%46%12%22%24%27%30%14%25%16%28%26%20%19%31%41%25%18%25%23%21%
Undecided24%17%31%18%22%28%27%20%28%24%38%20%22%16%26%23%10%38%21%31%22%20%33%22%18%18%23%26%31%27%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
OK, what if the only two candidates in the runoff were Mike Aguirre and Kevin Faulconer?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Aguirre35%37%33%46%35%30%28%40%29%31%37%42%41%52%31%37%36%19%37%18%44%35%26%36%43%30%46%30%44%40%28%
Faulconer42%47%37%25%42%53%49%34%51%51%20%28%42%32%44%44%38%51%42%65%26%48%55%45%32%44%35%47%26%42%52%
Undecided23%16%29%30%23%17%23%26%20%18%43%30%17%15%25%19%26%30%20%17%30%17%19%19%25%26%18%23%31%19%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Mike Aguirre and David Alvarez?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Aguirre32%36%29%36%31%35%26%33%31%35%31%22%41%46%29%31%28%24%39%34%29%36%34%31%34%31%41%28%34%36%30%
Alvarez40%42%37%45%35%35%45%40%39%35%24%57%36%33%41%38%55%32%37%27%46%40%24%43%47%43%35%39%36%32%46%
Undecided28%22%34%18%34%30%29%27%29%29%45%22%24%21%30%31%18%44%24%40%24%24%42%25%19%26%23%32%31%32%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
And what if it were Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Faulconer38%45%31%27%36%44%47%32%45%49%38%14%34%35%39%48%30%38%29%64%25%38%59%36%24%27%37%42%31%37%46%
Alvarez35%34%37%49%34%29%29%41%29%26%16%66%31%43%34%32%49%21%46%15%46%36%17%37%49%45%41%28%36%33%34%
Undecided26%21%32%24%30%28%24%27%26%25%46%21%35%23%27%20%22%42%25%21%29%26%24%27%27%28%23%30%34%30%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%
 
 
Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
527 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanTop QualityParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Integrity30%29%32%19%25%37%43%22%40%30%17%32%43%24%32%100%0%0%0%42%27%26%47%26%22%43%28%31%33%33%29%
Leadership26%25%27%31%26%23%23%28%23%21%34%38%21%19%27%0%100%0%0%22%33%19%14%26%32%12%27%25%22%24%27%
Stability6%8%4%11%7%4%1%9%3%6%5%7%5%13%4%0%0%0%0%2%5%11%3%4%13%8%7%5%6%10%3%
Business Experience3%1%4%0%6%2%2%3%2%3%2%1%2%4%2%0%0%0%0%6%1%2%5%1%4%2%3%2%5%1%2%
Fiscal Responsibility16%18%13%19%18%15%9%19%12%18%27%8%13%28%13%0%0%100%0%13%16%18%16%18%13%12%16%17%14%17%16%
Reach Across Party Lines13%10%16%16%12%13%10%14%12%15%11%10%9%12%13%0%0%0%100%7%14%16%5%18%11%13%13%13%12%10%16%
Something Else4%4%3%4%2%4%5%3%4%5%3%1%2%0%4%0%0%0%0%4%3%4%6%2%4%6%3%4%4%2%5%
Not Sure3%4%2%0%4%2%8%2%4%3%1%3%5%0%4%0%0%0%0%4%2%4%4%4%0%5%4%2%3%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%25%27%27%21%52%48%58%8%24%9%20%80%30%26%16%13%25%47%27%26%41%28%9%35%56%24%33%43%