Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23213
 
In Oregon, Brown and Pierce in Dogfight for Governor Mansion, Every Vote Vital;
Clinton Safely Atop Trump; Wyden Well-Positioned for Re-Election to U.S. Senate:

26 days till votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Hillary Clinton is 10 points in front of Republican Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Libertarian Gary Johnson is backed by 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4%.

Reciprocal efforts by the Trump campaign to suppress Democratic turnout and by the Clinton campaign to suppress Republican turnout may not cause Oregon's 7 Electoral Votes to flip, but such cross-winds could well make a difference in the state's fiercely fought Governor's election.

At the top of the ticket, Clinton leads by 23 points among women; Trump leads by 4 points among men -- a 27-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads by 4 points among rural women, leads by 22 points among suburban women. Clinton leads by 21 points among voters under age 50; the candidates run even among voters age 50+.

Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base. Trump holds 82% of the Republican base. Moderates break for Clinton by 18 points. Independent men vote for Trump by 16 points. Independent women vote for Clinton by 10 points. Voters focused on terrorism, national security and immigration back Trump. Voters focused on the economy, education and the environment back Clinton.

Of Trump supporters, 51% say they are voting "for Trump," compared to 48% who are voting "against Clinton." Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting "for Clinton," compared to 35% who are voting "against Trump." 52% of Trump backers are "enthusiastic," compared to 58% of Clinton backers. 44% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 39% of Clinton backers.

Trump carries military households by 23 points, carries Evangelicals by 47 points. Clinton leads by 3 points among the least affluent voters, leads by 10 points among middle-income voters, and leads by 24 points among affluent voters. Trump leads among high-school educated voters, Clinton leads among those who have started college but not finished, and among those with a 4-year college degree.

In an election for Governor today, 10/13/16, 6 days till mail-in voting begins, Democrat Kate Brown leads republican Bud Pierce 46% to 42%. Pierce holds 81% of the GOP base, Brown holds 84% of the Democratic base. Independent men break for Pierce by 14 points. Independent women split. High-school educated men back Pierce by 21 points. College-educated white voters back Brown by 19 points.

Pierce leads among rural men by 24 points; rural women split. Brown leads by 8 points in greater Portland. Pierce leads by a nominal 2 points in the rest of Oregon. Pierce leads by 50 points among Evangelicals and leads by 26 points in military households. Pierce leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on immigration and national security and leads materially among voters focused on terrorism. Brown leads materially among voters focused on the economy and leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on education and the environment.

In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, Democrat Ron Wyden is cruising to re-election for his 4th full term, today leading Republican Mark Callahan 54% to 32%. Wyden leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, whites and non-whites.

Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Oregon 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/13. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 730 were registered to vote. Of the 730 registered voters, 654 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Oregon by 12 points in 2012 and by 16 points in 2008. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004. Al Gore carried Oregon by 3 points in 2000. In 2010, Wyden defeated Republican Jim Huffman by 18 points; Wyden leads by 22 points today. In 2015, Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber resigned, leaving then Secretary of State Brown to take his place.
 
1If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Donald Trump (R)24913511417728475891592121231265806517782145899699555884682623364608894121104107131459499688774442051391094345514351372678
Hillary Clinton (D)31212119151989470149163254926231164284912483188120710248692911043972063571031327035261622463910016973110123982152169656752446334915141
Gary Johnson (L)362215128107201733003131211360426651313222317272101512112215223181610187122528811466179112
Jill Stein (G)2416941154159220020146111012010255102153379105420419414511541212177645114645
Undecided331716105126151731002194824111155789510714521912111219923512151411813202494883510314
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
2Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?
249 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 6.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
For Trump1277255638414244831051128355322121408835436522348334229914254653585955682357404041332310469572323292421141330
Against Clinton1186257103442324574104012328274256425553531423240123832245035394061465261223655274541209867511920221830231346
Not Sure41210211330012110000210210000210000312013103111133112101102
Total24913511417728475891592121231265806517782145899699555884682623364608894121104107131459499688774442051391094345514351372678
Composition of Trump Voters100%54%46%7%29%34%30%36%64%85%1%9%5%26%33%27%7%3%3%1%59%36%4%29%39%23%3%3%18%33%25%13%2%2%25%37%39%50%44%45%55%19%39%42%30%38%33%18%82%56%44%17%18%21%17%21%15%10%32%
 
3Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
249 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 6.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Enthusiastically130686163353383991109110104543261104088384405226433649241110254358605760652756404442301511574562122322621171532
With Reservations10960491137273448619311321737385630534832839262573136204432413158434361173651234139278261482022181329191038
Not Sure1064125337100004121112433143213222113343455118145375531132118
Total24913511417728475891592121231265806517782145899699555884682623364608894121104107131459499688774442051391094345514351372678
Composition of Trump Voters100%54%46%7%29%34%30%36%64%85%1%9%5%26%33%27%7%3%3%1%59%36%4%29%39%23%3%3%18%33%25%13%2%2%25%37%39%50%44%45%55%19%39%42%30%38%33%18%82%56%44%17%18%21%17%21%15%10%32%
 
4Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?
312 Clinton VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
For Clinton2017612515567356721291735914190132681681039149995762574296811423370814718173481512856117497376421591326932482027152410101
Against Trump1084564364218137731804151008415234015842551142729345133092024334823178713931143522337465553812724244191825640
Not Sure30300300310200000030003002010100200300101010100033003000000
Total31212119151989470149163254926231164284912483188120710248692911043972063571031327035261622463910016973110123982152169656752446334915141
Composition of Clinton Voters100%39%61%16%31%30%22%48%52%81%3%8%7%0%5%1%9%16%40%27%6%26%67%3%8%28%30%29%3%14%31%7%20%18%33%42%22%11%85%20%80%13%32%55%24%36%40%31%69%69%31%18%24%8%15%10%16%5%45%
 
5Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
312 Clinton VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Enthusiastically1806711318546049711091473181315181774756251486945526462355103935687140181534113730451033963744213912357294214268171383
With Reservations1225072314032197152102461001041830469105255114393627419401120213556271710019101451643045445270873624329182428056
Not Sure104624117352210102240144312400120410430828442324466331121421
Total31212119151989470149163254926231164284912483188120710248692911043972063571031327035261622463910016973110123982152169656752446334915141
Composition of Clinton Voters100%39%61%16%31%30%22%48%52%81%3%8%7%0%5%1%9%16%40%27%6%26%67%3%8%28%30%29%3%14%31%7%20%18%33%42%22%11%85%20%80%13%32%55%24%36%40%31%69%69%31%18%24%8%15%10%16%5%45%
 
6If you were filling out your ballot for United States Senate right now, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Callahan? Democrat Ron Wyden? Or one of the other candidates?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Mark Callahan (R)2081198818527958701371792151257685215671125737648343254054583152527475107818911131788954706534174123844331393642311875
Ron Wyden (D)35114920250100112891502012947282262319365312480291082042031989394125211627605910514394472848126251118176831281309525524210966774153525624143
Other402218617972317330434779732112363111357511636612171015238305112217128122726149845157420
Undecided56203621255646114623611212105831327124161512731816294202412133819388321721211438193422420841116312
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
7If you were filling our your ballot for Oregon Governor right now, who would you vote for? Republican Bud Pierce? Democrat Kate Brown? Or one of the other candidates?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Bud Pierce (R)27215112125719877971752352221361846828131331441081671100661494577754196671049712712611515143109111659988502221691035549524560482489
Kate Brown (D)3041231814492947413616825472122314113248119741790193122778889094210316575496128733725164233369416875105115902142069856722844434814139
Other2814143118614142800014746325175361133446253511129178196121017838201612556610749
Undecided502228231953428361663956587111615591461211211410821161010331037102415181910311934155117378713
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
8Oregon will also vote on a number of ballot measures. On Measure 97, the Oregon Business Tax Increase Initiative are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Yes18290912964484192891436151731810171965492146114132332426982451104534706345231534313617491155257716411712754352820252819892
No28515213238651018110318223832518526153322236191141075561907721234274873416147011095114144104171551071137511082622221731125654514457503290
Not Certain1886812029655539949417119713302720304217437759172959482210375820202350845146129501332483754863645213612563305521293642969
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
9Should recreational marijuana sales be allowed in the city you live in? Or banned in the city you live in?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Allowed340183157701131075018315728882024203735405388545712914325458878902346101256157101143865825879253491231599412111012821222311684594145775227134
Banned253116137206272998217122022012456243281538211078659618163221533737533158659294110131109141468911469889042212159943458494542442291
Not Sure6111506182611233844197212121316101416275151711941619557242211153794602530122217952421922038214026
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
10If recreational marijuana sales are allowed in the city you live in, should the sale of recreational marijuana items be taxed by the city? Or not taxed by the city?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Taxed4942352597714813613222526941474330457774515210775122177182661081298088399815653615215319014014832014733670166246127167179140354321173891007070888941196
Not Taxed115635212335119457098341015271415171864246241823292019182629713152546382875377218543735492326897341262019203115635
Not Sure45133361218919274012286232175147226101011621111375112113731133381820131515133330165165817220
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%
 
11Which ONE of these 6 issues is the single most important issue facing the country today? Immigration? Terrorism? The Economy? National Security? Education? The environment? Or is some other issue most important?
654 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlinePortlandRest of MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWhites
Immigration60332731522201842510541515139161292371422191160000001426202526273172524192017753402012131191310119
Terrorism13558771333424646891214732334258627758393330482618701350000344847517056752956454644332610981541830212621181140
Economy1969699364965468511116331416162928192448284471761941583434001960005482564713553138295910346707157138127694239322337351981
National Security632835620241426376110279196677163014121820460006300182023303126369302313252213503331101010141812223
Education81315017391410562559391007211133114726455426251800008102141171168146563044182634384362191427610917335
Environment7242301421191735375709607011151424726370111184000000723520163688636214419242824474824156511179637
Other2716115128217102014163144449988516500000011789181016491491071214197538054411
Not Sure22616141066162101016232727691386200000021456113186106511412115759141535
Total654310344951942051612893655521149426811090707114386178231228911411691111136013519663817219025719118342719744095238303175231217179475425229121137939812011149251
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%30%31%25%44%56%84%2%8%6%10%17%14%11%11%22%13%27%36%35%14%22%26%17%18%9%21%30%10%12%11%29%40%30%29%67%31%69%15%37%48%28%37%35%27%73%65%35%18%21%14%15%18%17%7%38%