| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19271 |
| 5 Days Until San Diego Mayoral Primary Votes Are Counted, 3 Candidates In Tight Fight To Be in the Top 2:
In a primary election for San Diego Mayor today, 05/31/12, 3 candidates have the potential to advance to a general election in November, but only 2 will, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV. Today, City Council Member Carl DeMaio gets 31%, Congressman Bob Filner gets 28%, State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher gets 23%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 17 days ago, DeMaio is flat; Filner is up 7; Fletcher is up 2. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup. Early voting began 05/07/12. Among the 28% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, DeMaio has 36%; Filner has 31%; Fletcher has 16%. Among the 72% who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before 06/05/12, DeMaio has 29%; Filner and Fletcher each have 26%. |
| San Diego Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, passes today with 57% of likely voters certain they will vote "yes" on the measure, 21% certain they will vote "no." 22% are not yet certain how they will vote. Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll for KGTV-TV, support among independents has risen, while opposition among Democrats has also increased. Combined, they produce a slight increase in overall support for the measure. |
| Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 San Diego adults 05/28/12 through 05/30/12. Of them, 700 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 542 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no one candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (87% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (13% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. |
 | If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for?(candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate? |
| 542 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | College Grad | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Carl DeMaio | 31% | 34% | 28% | 15% | 28% | 33% | 40% | 24% | 36% | 33% | 19% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 52% | 13% | 32% | 57% | 28% | 53% | 28% | 8% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 26% |
| Bonnie Dumanis | 11% | 7% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 14% | 12% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% |
| Bob Filner | 28% | 29% | 26% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 24% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 45% | 31% | 29% | 17% | 29% | 31% | 26% | 6% | 48% | 24% | 7% | 31% | 9% | 24% | 55% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 31% | 26% |
| Nathan Fletcher | 23% | 24% | 23% | 36% | 28% | 19% | 16% | 30% | 18% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 43% | 21% | 16% | 26% | 30% | 17% | 26% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 28% | 15% | 26% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 31% |
| Other | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 13% | 30% | 31% | 25% | 44% | 56% | 66% | 7% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 87% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 11% | 86% | 31% | 40% | 26% | 64% | 36% | 23% | 30% | 48% |
 | On Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 542 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | College Grad | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Yes | 57% | 66% | 48% | 45% | 54% | 59% | 64% | 51% | 61% | 59% | 39% | 62% | 47% | 51% | 57% | 68% | 52% | 73% | 41% | 61% | 82% | 54% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 60% | 52% | 54% | 54% | 61% |
| No | 21% | 22% | 21% | 27% | 20% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 33% | 15% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 37% | 16% | 11% | 23% | 6% | 20% | 41% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 25% | 22% |
| Not Certain | 22% | 13% | 31% | 28% | 27% | 19% | 17% | 27% | 18% | 20% | 28% | 23% | 31% | 28% | 21% | 6% | 29% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 7% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 21% | 18% | 28% | 28% | 21% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 13% | 30% | 31% | 25% | 44% | 56% | 66% | 7% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 87% | 28% | 72% | 34% | 42% | 24% | 11% | 86% | 31% | 40% | 26% | 64% | 36% | 23% | 30% | 48% |