Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19271
 
5 Days Until San Diego Mayoral Primary Votes Are Counted, 3 Candidates In Tight Fight To Be in the Top 2:

In a primary election for San Diego Mayor today, 05/31/12, 3 candidates have the potential to advance to a general election in November, but only 2 will, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV.

Today, City Council Member Carl DeMaio gets 31%, Congressman Bob Filner gets 28%, State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher gets 23%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 17 days ago, DeMaio is flat; Filner is up 7; Fletcher is up 2. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup.

Early voting began 05/07/12. Among the 28% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, DeMaio has 36%; Filner has 31%; Fletcher has 16%. Among the 72% who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before 06/05/12, DeMaio has 29%; Filner and Fletcher each have 26%.

 
San Diego Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, passes today with 57% of likely voters certain they will vote "yes" on the measure, 21% certain they will vote "no." 22% are not yet certain how they will vote. Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll for KGTV-TV, support among independents has risen, while opposition among Democrats has also increased. Combined, they produce a slight increase in overall support for the measure.
 
Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 San Diego adults 05/28/12 through 05/30/12. Of them, 700 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 542 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no one candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (87% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (13% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device.
 
If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for?(candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate?
542 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyCollege GradIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Carl DeMaio31%34%28%15%28%33%40%24%36%33%19%27%29%20%32%36%29%52%13%32%57%28%53%28%8%30%33%35%35%26%
Bonnie Dumanis11%7%15%6%10%11%16%9%13%11%10%14%10%10%12%11%11%7%14%12%5%11%7%12%14%10%13%12%12%11%
Bob Filner28%29%26%32%27%29%24%29%27%25%45%31%29%17%29%31%26%6%48%24%7%31%9%24%55%26%31%27%31%26%
Nathan Fletcher23%24%23%36%28%19%16%30%18%24%18%23%23%43%21%16%26%30%17%26%27%23%25%28%15%26%19%18%15%31%
Other3%3%3%4%3%3%1%4%2%1%4%3%8%0%3%4%2%2%4%3%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%5%3%1%
Undecided4%3%5%8%3%5%3%4%4%5%4%1%0%10%3%2%5%4%4%3%2%4%2%5%5%5%1%2%4%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%48%52%13%30%31%25%44%56%66%7%16%11%13%87%28%72%34%42%24%11%86%31%40%26%64%36%23%30%48%
 
 
On Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
542 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyCollege GradIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Yes57%66%48%45%54%59%64%51%61%59%39%62%47%51%57%68%52%73%41%61%82%54%73%56%38%60%52%54%54%61%
No21%22%21%27%20%22%19%22%21%21%33%15%23%21%21%26%19%6%37%16%11%23%6%20%41%22%20%18%25%22%
Not Certain22%13%31%28%27%19%17%27%18%20%28%23%31%28%21%6%29%21%23%23%7%23%21%24%21%18%28%28%21%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%48%52%13%30%31%25%44%56%66%7%16%11%13%87%28%72%34%42%24%11%86%31%40%26%64%36%23%30%48%