Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14448
Republican Guthrie Back on Top in GOP Fight to Hold the Open Seat in KY2: In an election for US House of Representatives in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District today, 09/26/08, to fill the seat of retiring incumbent Republican Ron Lewis, Republican Brett Guthrie edges Democrat David Boswell 49% to 43%, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three months ago, Guthrie is up 5 points; Boswell is down 4; a 9-point shift to the Republican.

Among men, Boswell and Guthrie had been tied; today, Guthrie leads by 12. Among women, Boswell had led by 6, now trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Boswell had led by 3, now trails by 16. 21% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican Guthrie; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Boswell.

Incumbent Lewis, first elected to the House in 1994, is not seeking an eighth term. Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, rated "Solid R" by the Cook Political Report, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13. Lewis won with 55% of the vote in 2006 and with 68% of the vote in 2004. Before Lewis, Democrat William Natcher held the seat for 40 years.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District 09/24/08 and 09/25/08; of the adults, 766 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 592 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Brett Guthrie? Or, Democrat David Boswell?
592 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your Mind
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad
Brett Guthrie (R)49%53%46%54%53%44%46%54%45%51%15%****86%21%**75%33%29%53%44%42%59%33%41%52%
David Boswell (D)43%41%44%39%37%50%44%38%48%41%80%****8%71%**17%60%64%39%48%51%34%59%46%42%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%21%32%30%17%53%47%93%5%1%1%43%53%4%41%32%11%62%21%17%66%33%21%78%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.