Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19529
 
With Ryan, Romney Still Trying to Strike Gold in Silver State; Republican Heller Ahead of Democrat Berkley in Tight Nevada Senate Fight:

In an election for President of the United States in vital Nevada, Barack Obama finishes today, 08/21/12, with a nominal 2-point advantage, 47% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV 8 News Now. Obama's edge is within the survey's possible sources of error and may or may not be significant. Early voting begins in 2 months. In 2008, Obama carried Nevada by 12 points. In 2012, six critical electoral votes are at stake.

* Obama has a single-digit advantage in Las Vegas and a double-digit advantage in the rest of Clark County. Romney leads in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* Romney is backed by 81% of Republicans, 81% of conservatives, 84% of Tea Party members.
* Obama is backed by 82% of Democrats, 83% of liberals.
* Independents break 44% to 39% for Romney.
* Moderates break 57% to 34% for Obama.
* Romney leads among male Nevadans. Obama leads among female Nevadans. There is a 19-point Gender Gap.
* Obama leads among lower-income voters; Romney leads among upper-income voters; middle-income voters split.
* All interviews were conducted after Paul Ryan was named Mitt Romney's running mate. Ryan attracts to the Romney ticket as many voters as he repels.
* 7 in 10 voters are familiar with Ryan's thinking on Medicare. Of those familiar: 48% support the Ryan Medicare plan, 47% oppose the Ryan Medicare plan.
* 41% in Nevada have a favorable opinion of Obama, 39% have a favorable opinion of Romney, 35% have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
* 80% of Romney voters and 77% of Obama voters say they cast their vote enthusiastically.

In an election today for United States Senator from Nevada, appointed incumbent Republican Dean Heller, running for his first elected term, leads Democrat Shelley Berkley 44% to 39%.

* Heller has a Minus 3 Net Favorability - 32% view him favorably compared to 35% who view him unfavorably.
* Berkley has a Minus 14 Net Favorability - 29% view her favorably compared to 43% who view her unfavorably.
* There is a 20-point gender gap. Heller, a man, leads by 14 points among men. Berkley, a woman, leads by 6 points among women.
* Independents break for Heller; moderates break for Berkley.
* Heller and Berkley are tied in Las Vegas. Berkley leads in the rest of Clark County; Heller leads decisively in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* 22% of Berkley voters say they cast their vote "with reservations," compared to 18% of Heller voters.
* Voters who are familiar with a House Ethics Committee investigation of Berkley are 3:1 more likely to vote for Heller than they are to vote for Berkley.
* Of Romney voters, 87% vote for Heller. Of Obama voters, just 76% vote for Berkley.

Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.

 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Mitt Romney, the Republican? Barack Obama, the Democrat? Or one of the other candidates?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Mitt Romney (R)38822416488100115861882002695803454334388033713252438955319230116126115916594140142851677066
Barack Obama (D)40619121410611711468223182217618146101305040630307442797873913519511777161161131147103942245533
Other402318131278261528121093100811910181379131092291116982246
Undecided3517181413622682446119160010108101423281729121311131072044
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
2Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations?
834 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Enthusiastically63833530314317218913431532339352128651025363103133032662422641255256522223411011124827018122219915430610077
With Reservations1779582604743261076911010332553124728166595860551016448852330856146774930932925
Not Sure1981141041146115309116115659401844659595631303
Total834438396207229236162436398514671639016467038840637533130533318563746274324139147342336236304253187413129105
Composition of Likely Voters100%53%47%25%27%28%19%52%48%62%8%20%11%20%80%47%49%45%40%37%40%22%8%90%33%39%17%18%42%41%30%38%32%22%49%15%13%
 
Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Favorable3571681899610597602011571875868449126633402627030263607343271731045714514910713098851925129
Unfavorable398234164901071138819720128457831533453576332222414910254328229119165917016694144145861727070
Neutral99495033262614594060722113763205823473329353942046203137313741202062116
No Opinion144102461687015212923281311373183210313614
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Favorable34020713375849785159182236467334129933062971022241735227620397125613215089116124721506256
Unfavorable398188210102123114592251732295167511032957348342824925589103794318511373158161113150110892215731
Neutral11449653829301768476712314377749444743404131310833571522563537482725541420
No Opinion161056523115633321427652560154215828328602
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
5Is your opinion of Paul Ryan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Favorable3061841226573927613816821436425272792948270111934170472481859484812413181101112741185954
Unfavorable3041631416984985315315118337543056248827021230341976882892514991541151298310991731564827
Neutral15465895748311810648871635176193627062605753381014048513331675644713726941716
No Opinion1054362303722166738541515213966255832402851231102244782349323935232064912
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
6Does Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate make you more likely to vote for Romney? More likely to vote for Obama? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
More Likely To Vote For Romney240144966051705811212817034622322082256205101502463321991486210421019661898154954348
More Likely To Vote For Obama25413012471647049135119146364724512033234201913616549723823112786083108867874611393123
Does Not Influence3621761868611910057205157211327445892721551641551381211518325328110161525016414393146105771905937
Not Sure136847201221101210342426330132714727332911
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
7Are you familiar with Paul Ryan's thinking on Medicare?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Yes60933527414415618612230030838642115679651230427230024622722115659533224239988922628615021421413629010875
No183889556623926118651091937186012259935868638431417541783042994066753244981824
Not Sure773345212417164532449187265125412727243712170182413253022312717154589
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
8Do you support the Ryan Medicare plan? Or do you oppose it?
609 Familiar With ThinkingAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Support294181113766883671441501808743234260278132541917640765023417588154310714173100110671255449
Oppose28914314662819650143146184323934502381425431222381797082763414680401101366910596651515122
Not Sure261115687514122221112141241551231012315637910910731445
Total60933527414415618612230030838642115679651230427230024622722115659533224239988922628615021421413629010875
Composition of Familiar With Thinking100%55%45%24%26%31%20%49%51%63%7%19%11%16%84%50%45%49%40%37%36%26%10%88%37%39%16%15%38%48%26%37%37%22%48%18%12%
 
In the election for United States Senator, if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Dean Heller, the Republican? Shelley Berkley, the Democrat? Or some other candidate?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Dean Heller (R)3842301559498108841921922706793064320337303840241508855314222119145315617288136144851597169
Shelley Berkley (D)3411641777897105611751661905363366127913307034131236697329341671016613114010412595871894322
Other7428461921201440344231217136126290026232336718231723242528271314321413
Undecided69343630269556143691694426124000153319068931913431227291285264
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
10Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations?
799 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Enthusiastically584329255124164177119288296365451096578506297261301257223228128575102222169510022924915419920213626910278
With Reservations181791025541513496851151636134613464896976626946717042843134687859714441992219
Not Sure35142113115624112218415201515149131271311096915108187101348
Total799422377191216233159407392502611538213966137636638434129830918065710274310132142311337221288252186380128105
Composition of Likely Voters100%53%47%24%27%29%20%51%49%63%8%19%10%17%83%47%46%48%43%37%39%23%8%89%34%39%17%18%39%43%29%38%33%23%48%16%13%
 
Is your opinion of Shelley Berkley ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Favorable25012512544787751122128141433927382121122442422418145324424121784397108748874651363019
Unfavorable37221715591105977919617626067531643072935230310211649253303185125304414917584134141791538159
Neutral19194977044492911478106144823651265611162815385488181568129478557628236371141921
No Opinion561936161619531243177111540281815725131515116145222392713121231310
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
Is your opinion of Dean Heller ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Favorable2791681116366856512915019815921322472601027221793561502181717910351121307191107541105956
Unfavorable3081531556288966115015720037373347260232588244461906992923715086501251277712087751485629
Neutral208111977367402814069107216120841248210195726682566199559238418978608558521241617
No Opinion732350232120104330331111191855233792422351306919208302814392111145136
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
13Are you following news stories about a House Ethics Committee investigation of Shelley Berkley?
869 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
Yes512269243110147149106257255339408350934192362422392111741911393846116620593731892451391801701182489255
No294159135978174421781161662374317621813412313210111911753242611011243555141947411887611523446
Not Sure63273614141916283532712111349184013292034635615121328241034186153377
Total869455413221242242164463406538701699218268638840638434131334219965778283341141156354349247317263194433134109
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%25%28%28%19%53%47%62%8%19%11%21%79%45%47%44%39%36%39%23%8%90%33%39%16%18%41%41%30%38%32%22%50%15%13%
 
14Does the House Ethics Committee investigation make more likely to vote for Shelley Berkley? More likely to vote for Dean Heller? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other?
512 Following StoriesAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPresidential VotSenate VoteParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRomney (Obama (DHeller (Berkley RepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KLas VegaRest of Washoe CRest of
More Likely To Vote For Berkley74413316132025294545159596536807355316271836231521352724161742105
More Likely To Vote For Heller214123915358604211210215264214421721752819171273450241831156617288510152698747934628
Does Not Influence Your Vote204103101366268389810613415292629175571294711942906812187411004328799556795753953522
Not Sure203175141019294251281170130155020239351347911811
Total512269243110147149106257255339408350934192362422392111741911393846116620593731892451391801701182489255
Composition of Following Stories100%53%47%22%29%29%21%50%50%66%8%16%10%18%82%46%47%47%41%34%37%27%7%90%33%40%18%14%37%48%28%37%35%23%48%18%11%