Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19529 |
With Ryan, Romney Still Trying to Strike Gold in Silver State; Republican Heller Ahead of Democrat Berkley in Tight Nevada Senate Fight:
In an election for President of the United States in vital Nevada, Barack Obama finishes today, 08/21/12, with a nominal 2-point advantage, 47% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV 8 News Now. Obama's edge is within the survey's possible sources of error and may or may not be significant. Early voting begins in 2 months. In 2008, Obama carried Nevada by 12 points. In 2012, six critical electoral votes are at stake.
* Obama has a single-digit advantage in Las Vegas and a double-digit advantage in the rest of Clark County. Romney leads in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
In an election today for United States Senator from Nevada, appointed incumbent Republican Dean Heller, running for his first elected term, leads Democrat Shelley Berkley 44% to 39%.
* Heller has a Minus 3 Net Favorability - 32% view him favorably compared to 35% who view him unfavorably.
Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election. |
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Mitt Romney, the Republican? Barack Obama, the Democrat? Or one of the other candidates? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Mitt Romney (R) | 388 | 224 | 164 | 88 | 100 | 115 | 86 | 188 | 200 | 269 | 5 | 80 | 34 | 54 | 334 | 388 | 0 | 337 | 13 | 252 | 43 | 89 | 55 | 319 | 230 | 116 | 12 | 61 | 159 | 165 | 94 | 140 | 142 | 85 | 167 | 70 | 66 |
Barack Obama (D) | 406 | 191 | 214 | 106 | 117 | 114 | 68 | 223 | 182 | 217 | 61 | 81 | 46 | 101 | 305 | 0 | 406 | 30 | 307 | 44 | 279 | 78 | 7 | 391 | 35 | 195 | 117 | 77 | 161 | 161 | 131 | 147 | 103 | 94 | 224 | 55 | 33 |
Other | 40 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 6 |
Undecided | 35 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 32 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 4 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
2 | Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations? |
834 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Enthusiastically | 638 | 335 | 303 | 143 | 172 | 189 | 134 | 315 | 323 | 393 | 52 | 128 | 65 | 102 | 536 | 310 | 313 | 303 | 266 | 242 | 264 | 125 | 52 | 565 | 222 | 234 | 110 | 111 | 248 | 270 | 181 | 222 | 199 | 154 | 306 | 100 | 77 |
With Reservations | 177 | 95 | 82 | 60 | 47 | 43 | 26 | 107 | 69 | 110 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 53 | 124 | 72 | 81 | 66 | 59 | 58 | 60 | 55 | 10 | 164 | 48 | 85 | 23 | 30 | 85 | 61 | 46 | 77 | 49 | 30 | 93 | 29 | 25 |
Not Sure | 19 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 3 |
Total | 834 | 438 | 396 | 207 | 229 | 236 | 162 | 436 | 398 | 514 | 67 | 163 | 90 | 164 | 670 | 388 | 406 | 375 | 331 | 305 | 333 | 185 | 63 | 746 | 274 | 324 | 139 | 147 | 342 | 336 | 236 | 304 | 253 | 187 | 413 | 129 | 105 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 19% | 52% | 48% | 62% | 8% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 80% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 17% | 18% | 42% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 49% | 15% | 13% |
Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Favorable | 357 | 168 | 189 | 96 | 105 | 97 | 60 | 201 | 157 | 187 | 58 | 68 | 44 | 91 | 266 | 3 | 340 | 26 | 270 | 30 | 263 | 60 | 7 | 343 | 27 | 173 | 104 | 57 | 145 | 149 | 107 | 130 | 98 | 85 | 192 | 51 | 29 |
Unfavorable | 398 | 234 | 164 | 90 | 107 | 113 | 88 | 197 | 201 | 284 | 5 | 78 | 31 | 53 | 345 | 357 | 6 | 332 | 22 | 241 | 49 | 102 | 54 | 328 | 229 | 119 | 16 | 59 | 170 | 166 | 94 | 144 | 145 | 86 | 172 | 70 | 70 |
Neutral | 99 | 49 | 50 | 33 | 26 | 26 | 14 | 59 | 40 | 60 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 37 | 63 | 20 | 58 | 23 | 47 | 33 | 29 | 35 | 3 | 94 | 20 | 46 | 20 | 31 | 37 | 31 | 37 | 41 | 20 | 20 | 62 | 11 | 6 |
No Opinion | 14 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Favorable | 340 | 207 | 133 | 75 | 84 | 97 | 85 | 159 | 182 | 236 | 4 | 67 | 33 | 41 | 299 | 330 | 6 | 297 | 10 | 222 | 41 | 73 | 52 | 276 | 203 | 97 | 12 | 56 | 132 | 150 | 89 | 116 | 124 | 72 | 150 | 62 | 56 |
Unfavorable | 398 | 188 | 210 | 102 | 123 | 114 | 59 | 225 | 173 | 229 | 51 | 67 | 51 | 103 | 295 | 7 | 348 | 34 | 282 | 49 | 255 | 89 | 10 | 379 | 43 | 185 | 113 | 73 | 158 | 161 | 113 | 150 | 110 | 89 | 221 | 57 | 31 |
Neutral | 114 | 49 | 65 | 38 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 68 | 47 | 67 | 12 | 31 | 4 | 37 | 77 | 49 | 44 | 47 | 43 | 40 | 41 | 31 | 3 | 108 | 33 | 57 | 15 | 22 | 56 | 35 | 37 | 48 | 27 | 25 | 54 | 14 | 20 |
No Opinion | 16 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
5 | Is your opinion of Paul Ryan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Favorable | 306 | 184 | 122 | 65 | 73 | 92 | 76 | 138 | 168 | 214 | 3 | 64 | 25 | 27 | 279 | 294 | 8 | 270 | 11 | 193 | 41 | 70 | 47 | 248 | 185 | 94 | 8 | 48 | 124 | 131 | 81 | 101 | 112 | 74 | 118 | 59 | 54 |
Unfavorable | 304 | 163 | 141 | 69 | 84 | 98 | 53 | 153 | 151 | 183 | 37 | 54 | 30 | 56 | 248 | 8 | 270 | 21 | 230 | 34 | 197 | 68 | 8 | 289 | 25 | 149 | 91 | 54 | 115 | 129 | 83 | 109 | 91 | 73 | 156 | 48 | 27 |
Neutral | 154 | 65 | 89 | 57 | 48 | 31 | 18 | 106 | 48 | 87 | 16 | 35 | 17 | 61 | 93 | 62 | 70 | 62 | 60 | 57 | 53 | 38 | 10 | 140 | 48 | 51 | 33 | 31 | 67 | 56 | 44 | 71 | 37 | 26 | 94 | 17 | 16 |
No Opinion | 105 | 43 | 62 | 30 | 37 | 22 | 16 | 67 | 38 | 54 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 39 | 66 | 25 | 58 | 32 | 40 | 28 | 51 | 23 | 1 | 102 | 24 | 47 | 8 | 23 | 49 | 32 | 39 | 35 | 23 | 20 | 64 | 9 | 12 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
6 | Does Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate make you more likely to vote for Romney? More likely to vote for Obama? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
More Likely To Vote For Romney | 240 | 144 | 96 | 60 | 51 | 70 | 58 | 112 | 128 | 170 | 3 | 46 | 22 | 32 | 208 | 225 | 6 | 205 | 10 | 150 | 24 | 63 | 32 | 199 | 148 | 62 | 10 | 42 | 101 | 96 | 61 | 89 | 81 | 54 | 95 | 43 | 48 |
More Likely To Vote For Obama | 254 | 130 | 124 | 71 | 64 | 70 | 49 | 135 | 119 | 146 | 36 | 47 | 24 | 51 | 203 | 3 | 234 | 20 | 191 | 36 | 165 | 49 | 7 | 238 | 23 | 112 | 78 | 60 | 83 | 108 | 86 | 78 | 74 | 61 | 139 | 31 | 23 |
Does Not Influence | 362 | 176 | 186 | 86 | 119 | 100 | 57 | 205 | 157 | 211 | 32 | 74 | 45 | 89 | 272 | 155 | 164 | 155 | 138 | 121 | 151 | 83 | 25 | 328 | 110 | 161 | 52 | 50 | 164 | 143 | 93 | 146 | 105 | 77 | 190 | 59 | 37 |
Not Sure | 13 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
7 | Are you familiar with Paul Ryan's thinking on Medicare? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Yes | 609 | 335 | 274 | 144 | 156 | 186 | 122 | 300 | 308 | 386 | 42 | 115 | 67 | 96 | 512 | 304 | 272 | 300 | 246 | 227 | 221 | 156 | 59 | 533 | 224 | 239 | 98 | 89 | 226 | 286 | 150 | 214 | 214 | 136 | 290 | 108 | 75 |
No | 183 | 88 | 95 | 56 | 62 | 39 | 26 | 118 | 65 | 109 | 19 | 37 | 18 | 60 | 122 | 59 | 93 | 58 | 68 | 63 | 84 | 31 | 4 | 175 | 41 | 78 | 30 | 42 | 99 | 40 | 66 | 75 | 32 | 44 | 98 | 18 | 24 |
Not Sure | 77 | 33 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 16 | 45 | 32 | 44 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 26 | 51 | 25 | 41 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 70 | 18 | 24 | 13 | 25 | 30 | 22 | 31 | 27 | 17 | 15 | 45 | 8 | 9 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
8 | Do you support the Ryan Medicare plan? Or do you oppose it? |
609 Familiar With Thinking | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Support | 294 | 181 | 113 | 76 | 68 | 83 | 67 | 144 | 150 | 180 | 8 | 74 | 32 | 34 | 260 | 278 | 13 | 254 | 19 | 176 | 40 | 76 | 50 | 234 | 175 | 88 | 15 | 43 | 107 | 141 | 73 | 100 | 110 | 67 | 125 | 54 | 49 |
Oppose | 289 | 143 | 146 | 62 | 81 | 96 | 50 | 143 | 146 | 184 | 32 | 39 | 34 | 50 | 238 | 14 | 254 | 31 | 222 | 38 | 179 | 70 | 8 | 276 | 34 | 146 | 80 | 40 | 110 | 136 | 69 | 105 | 96 | 65 | 151 | 51 | 22 |
Not Sure | 26 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 5 |
Total | 609 | 335 | 274 | 144 | 156 | 186 | 122 | 300 | 308 | 386 | 42 | 115 | 67 | 96 | 512 | 304 | 272 | 300 | 246 | 227 | 221 | 156 | 59 | 533 | 224 | 239 | 98 | 89 | 226 | 286 | 150 | 214 | 214 | 136 | 290 | 108 | 75 |
Composition of Familiar With Thinking | 100% | 55% | 45% | 24% | 26% | 31% | 20% | 49% | 51% | 63% | 7% | 19% | 11% | 16% | 84% | 50% | 45% | 49% | 40% | 37% | 36% | 26% | 10% | 88% | 37% | 39% | 16% | 15% | 38% | 48% | 26% | 37% | 37% | 22% | 48% | 18% | 12% |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Dean Heller (R) | 384 | 230 | 155 | 94 | 98 | 108 | 84 | 192 | 192 | 270 | 6 | 79 | 30 | 64 | 320 | 337 | 30 | 384 | 0 | 241 | 50 | 88 | 55 | 314 | 222 | 119 | 14 | 53 | 156 | 172 | 88 | 136 | 144 | 85 | 159 | 71 | 69 |
Shelley Berkley (D) | 341 | 164 | 177 | 78 | 97 | 105 | 61 | 175 | 166 | 190 | 53 | 63 | 36 | 61 | 279 | 13 | 307 | 0 | 341 | 31 | 236 | 69 | 7 | 329 | 34 | 167 | 101 | 66 | 131 | 140 | 104 | 125 | 95 | 87 | 189 | 43 | 22 |
Other | 74 | 28 | 46 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 42 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 61 | 26 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 67 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 32 | 14 | 13 |
Undecided | 69 | 34 | 36 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 56 | 14 | 36 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 44 | 26 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 19 | 0 | 68 | 9 | 31 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 12 | 27 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 52 | 6 | 4 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
10 | Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations? |
799 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Enthusiastically | 584 | 329 | 255 | 124 | 164 | 177 | 119 | 288 | 296 | 365 | 45 | 109 | 65 | 78 | 506 | 297 | 261 | 301 | 257 | 223 | 228 | 128 | 57 | 510 | 222 | 216 | 95 | 100 | 229 | 249 | 154 | 199 | 202 | 136 | 269 | 102 | 78 |
With Reservations | 181 | 79 | 102 | 55 | 41 | 51 | 34 | 96 | 85 | 115 | 16 | 36 | 13 | 46 | 134 | 64 | 89 | 69 | 76 | 62 | 69 | 46 | 7 | 170 | 42 | 84 | 31 | 34 | 68 | 78 | 59 | 71 | 44 | 41 | 99 | 22 | 19 |
Not Sure | 35 | 14 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 8 |
Total | 799 | 422 | 377 | 191 | 216 | 233 | 159 | 407 | 392 | 502 | 61 | 153 | 82 | 139 | 661 | 376 | 366 | 384 | 341 | 298 | 309 | 180 | 65 | 710 | 274 | 310 | 132 | 142 | 311 | 337 | 221 | 288 | 252 | 186 | 380 | 128 | 105 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 24% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 8% | 19% | 10% | 17% | 83% | 47% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 37% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 89% | 34% | 39% | 17% | 18% | 39% | 43% | 29% | 38% | 33% | 23% | 48% | 16% | 13% |
Is your opinion of Shelley Berkley ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Favorable | 250 | 125 | 125 | 44 | 78 | 77 | 51 | 122 | 128 | 141 | 43 | 39 | 27 | 38 | 212 | 11 | 224 | 4 | 242 | 24 | 181 | 45 | 3 | 244 | 24 | 121 | 78 | 43 | 97 | 108 | 74 | 88 | 74 | 65 | 136 | 30 | 19 |
Unfavorable | 372 | 217 | 155 | 91 | 105 | 97 | 79 | 196 | 176 | 260 | 6 | 75 | 31 | 64 | 307 | 293 | 52 | 303 | 10 | 211 | 64 | 92 | 53 | 303 | 185 | 125 | 30 | 44 | 149 | 175 | 84 | 134 | 141 | 79 | 153 | 81 | 59 |
Neutral | 191 | 94 | 97 | 70 | 44 | 49 | 29 | 114 | 78 | 106 | 14 | 48 | 23 | 65 | 126 | 56 | 111 | 62 | 81 | 53 | 85 | 48 | 8 | 181 | 56 | 81 | 29 | 47 | 85 | 57 | 62 | 82 | 36 | 37 | 114 | 19 | 21 |
No Opinion | 56 | 19 | 36 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 31 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 28 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 25 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 51 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 9 | 27 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 10 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
Is your opinion of Dean Heller ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Favorable | 279 | 168 | 111 | 63 | 66 | 85 | 65 | 129 | 150 | 198 | 1 | 59 | 21 | 32 | 247 | 260 | 10 | 272 | 2 | 179 | 35 | 61 | 50 | 218 | 171 | 79 | 10 | 35 | 112 | 130 | 71 | 91 | 107 | 54 | 110 | 59 | 56 |
Unfavorable | 308 | 153 | 155 | 62 | 88 | 96 | 61 | 150 | 157 | 200 | 37 | 37 | 33 | 47 | 260 | 23 | 258 | 8 | 244 | 46 | 190 | 69 | 9 | 292 | 37 | 150 | 86 | 50 | 125 | 127 | 77 | 120 | 87 | 75 | 148 | 56 | 29 |
Neutral | 208 | 111 | 97 | 73 | 67 | 40 | 28 | 140 | 69 | 107 | 21 | 61 | 20 | 84 | 124 | 82 | 101 | 95 | 72 | 66 | 82 | 56 | 6 | 199 | 55 | 92 | 38 | 41 | 89 | 78 | 60 | 85 | 58 | 52 | 124 | 16 | 17 |
No Opinion | 73 | 23 | 50 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 18 | 55 | 23 | 37 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 69 | 19 | 20 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 39 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 6 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
13 | Are you following news stories about a House Ethics Committee investigation of Shelley Berkley? |
869 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
Yes | 512 | 269 | 243 | 110 | 147 | 149 | 106 | 257 | 255 | 339 | 40 | 83 | 50 | 93 | 419 | 236 | 242 | 239 | 211 | 174 | 191 | 139 | 38 | 461 | 166 | 205 | 93 | 73 | 189 | 245 | 139 | 180 | 170 | 118 | 248 | 92 | 55 |
No | 294 | 159 | 135 | 97 | 81 | 74 | 42 | 178 | 116 | 166 | 23 | 74 | 31 | 76 | 218 | 134 | 123 | 132 | 101 | 119 | 117 | 53 | 24 | 261 | 101 | 124 | 35 | 55 | 141 | 94 | 74 | 118 | 87 | 61 | 152 | 34 | 46 |
Not Sure | 63 | 27 | 36 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 28 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 49 | 18 | 40 | 13 | 29 | 20 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 56 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 28 | 24 | 10 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 7 |
Total | 869 | 455 | 413 | 221 | 242 | 242 | 164 | 463 | 406 | 538 | 70 | 169 | 92 | 182 | 686 | 388 | 406 | 384 | 341 | 313 | 342 | 199 | 65 | 778 | 283 | 341 | 141 | 156 | 354 | 349 | 247 | 317 | 263 | 194 | 433 | 134 | 109 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
14 | Does the House Ethics Committee investigation make more likely to vote for Shelley Berkley? More likely to vote for Dean Heller? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other? |
512 Following Stories | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Presidential Vot | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Romney ( | Obama (D | Heller ( | Berkley | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | College | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Las Vega | Rest of | Washoe C | Rest of | |
More Likely To Vote For Berkley | 74 | 41 | 33 | 16 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 29 | 45 | 45 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 65 | 3 | 68 | 0 | 73 | 5 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 71 | 8 | 36 | 23 | 15 | 21 | 35 | 27 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 42 | 10 | 5 |
More Likely To Vote For Heller | 214 | 123 | 91 | 53 | 58 | 60 | 42 | 112 | 102 | 152 | 6 | 42 | 14 | 42 | 172 | 175 | 28 | 191 | 7 | 127 | 34 | 50 | 24 | 183 | 115 | 66 | 17 | 28 | 85 | 101 | 52 | 69 | 87 | 47 | 93 | 46 | 28 |
Does Not Influence Your Vote | 204 | 103 | 101 | 36 | 62 | 68 | 38 | 98 | 106 | 134 | 15 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 175 | 57 | 129 | 47 | 119 | 42 | 90 | 68 | 12 | 187 | 41 | 100 | 43 | 28 | 79 | 95 | 56 | 79 | 57 | 53 | 95 | 35 | 22 |
Not Sure | 20 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 1 |
Total | 512 | 269 | 243 | 110 | 147 | 149 | 106 | 257 | 255 | 339 | 40 | 83 | 50 | 93 | 419 | 236 | 242 | 239 | 211 | 174 | 191 | 139 | 38 | 461 | 166 | 205 | 93 | 73 | 189 | 245 | 139 | 180 | 170 | 118 | 248 | 92 | 55 |
Composition of Following Stories | 100% | 53% | 47% | 22% | 29% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 66% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 82% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 37% | 27% | 7% | 90% | 33% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 37% | 48% | 28% | 37% | 35% | 23% | 48% | 18% | 11% |