Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20487
 
What's Happening Here? Violent Lurch in LA Mayor Race; Greuel Suddenly Has Traction; Are Her Attacks Working? Is Garcetti Support Soft?

Just when all appeared lost for Los Angeles mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel -- a SurveyUSA poll on 04/11/13 showed her trailing by 9 points and a Los Angeles Times Poll on 04/21/13 showed her trailing by 10 points -- a sudden reversal of fortune: a new SurveyUSA poll shows a dramatic shift, with Greuel now narrowly atop Eric Garcetti, though within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Given 3 separate "sanity checks" described below, SurveyUSA sees the contest today as Greuel 45%, Garcetti 42%, a 12-point swing in Greuel's favor.

1st Sanity check: Whenever there is dramatic movement in a contest as there appears to be in the LA Mayor's race, a first place to look is at is at the other contests included in the same poll. In the contest for Los Angeles City Attorney, SurveyUSA had Mike Feuer 12 points atop Carmen Trutanich on 04/11/13. The Los Angeles Times poll had Feuer 11 points atop Trutanich on 04/21/13. Now, today 04/26/13, SurveyUSA has Feuer 10 points atop Trutanich, 45% to 35%. All 3 of these City Attorney poll outcomes are effectively the same; there is no movement in the contest. In the race for Los Angeles City Controller, SurveyUSA had Dennis Zine 6 points atop Ron Galperin on 04/11/13. The Los Angeles Times poll had Zine 12 points atop Galperin on 04/21/13. Now, today 04/26/13, SurveyUSA has Zine 13 points atop Galperin, 43% to 30%. There is a trend here toward Zine, but if you plot the polls, there is no violent lurching. So: there is no evidence that a "bad random sample" caused the LA Mayor's numbers to swing wildly, for wild swings would have been expected in the City Attorney and City Controller contests as well. Instead, what we see are big swings isolated to the Mayor's race, such as:

* Greuel is running much stronger among women, where she now has a 15-point advantage.
* Greuel is running much stronger among older voters (age 50+): Greuel had trailed by 8 points 1 month ago, on 03/27/13, now leads by 13.
* Garcetti has lost ground among Latinos, where his double-digit lead has evaporated, and among whites, where his single-digit lead has evaporated.
* Lower-income voters and Democrats have both moved to Greuel.

2nd Sanity Check: Whenever there is a dramatic movement in a contest such as this, a second place to look is at the exact words that were read to respondents. Importantly: This 04/25/13 questionnaire differed from the questionnaire that SurveyUSA used in its 04/11/13 poll release. 3 questions were added to this survey, about medical marijuana. Those questions appear below, exactly as asked, as questions number 4, 5 and 6. The wonkish issue that needs to be examined is: could the addition of 3 questions about medical marijuana have inadvertently impacted the Mayor's contest, higher up in the questionnaire. The theoretical answer is: only if Garcetti voters were disproportionately likely to terminate the interview (and therefore not have their vote for Garcetti counted) during the reading of the marijuana questions. The actual answer is: no. Garcetti voters were not disproportionately likely to terminate the interview during the reading of the marijuana questions.

3rd Sanity Check: Whenever there is a dramatic movement in a contest such as this, a third place to look is at the movement day to day. SurveyUSA polled across 3 nights to produce these results: Monday 04/22/13, Tuesday 04/23/13 and Wednesday 04/24/13. Though the daily samples are small, it is instructive to observe that Garcetti and Greuel are tied in Monday's polling, and that Greuel led in data collected Tuesday and Wednesday. Garcetti led on none of the 3 days.

Now, On To the Medical Marijuana Ballot Referenda:

* On Proposition D, "Yes" leads "No" by 16 points.
* On Ordinance E, "No" leads "Yes" by 13 points. .
* On Measure F, "Yes" leads "No" by 3:1. Support is above 50%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 city of Los Angeles adults 04/22/13 through 04/25/13. Of the adults, 751 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 486 voters were likely to vote on or before election day, 05/21/13. Early voting has already begun. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.

 
If the election for Los Angeles Mayor were today, who would you vote for? Eric Garcetti? Or Wendy Greuel?
486 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Eric Garcetti42%51%35%42%52%38%35%48%37%47%29%42%38%49%41%43%43%45%39%51%46%46%36%28%44%45%28%46%48%
Wendy Greuel45%39%50%44%38%50%50%40%50%46%55%43%37%42%46%47%44%40%49%37%42%42%48%51%46%43%54%40%43%
Undecided13%10%15%15%10%12%15%12%13%8%16%15%25%9%13%10%13%15%11%12%12%11%15%20%10%12%17%14%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%
 
 
Los Angeles will also elect a City Attorney. If the election for City Attorney were today, who would you vote for? Carmen Trutanich? Or Mike Feuer?
486 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Carmen Trutanich35%35%35%35%35%41%30%35%35%33%30%41%39%43%34%38%33%47%32%32%49%32%28%31%39%34%35%38%33%
Mike Feuer45%50%42%44%44%41%53%44%47%53%41%39%32%44%46%48%45%38%50%43%40%47%52%44%44%47%40%43%52%
Undecided19%15%23%21%21%17%18%21%17%14%29%20%30%13%20%15%22%15%19%25%11%21%21%25%17%19%25%19%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%
 
 
Los Angeles will also elect a City Controller. If the election for City Controller were today, who would you vote for? Dennis Zine? Or Ron Galperin?
486 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Dennis Zine43%44%41%43%39%42%47%40%45%47%33%42%36%47%42%45%40%53%41%37%48%45%36%41%42%43%40%47%44%
Ron Galperin30%35%25%33%32%24%30%32%27%32%27%30%20%39%28%32%29%30%30%30%29%29%32%24%32%30%25%30%30%
Undecided28%20%34%24%29%34%24%27%29%21%40%28%44%13%30%23%31%17%30%33%23%26%32%35%26%27%35%23%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%
 
 
Also on the ballot are three separate ballot measures about medical marijuana. If more than one of the ballot measures receives enough votes to pass, the one with the most votes will be the one that goes into effect. Voters may vote on each of the three measures. On the first ballot measure, Proposition D, which would reduce the number of medical marijuana businesses to the approximately 135 that were open before 2007, and which would increase taxes on those businesses, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
486 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Yes40%39%41%39%49%32%38%46%35%44%35%39%30%68%35%47%36%49%38%39%50%45%32%31%46%40%36%48%38%
No24%29%20%31%24%26%17%27%22%24%26%27%16%17%25%20%27%21%26%21%23%23%27%32%22%24%22%21%28%
Not Certain36%32%39%29%26%42%45%27%43%31%39%34%54%15%39%32%37%30%36%40%28%32%40%37%32%36%41%32%34%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%
 
 
On the second ballot measure, Initiative Ordinance E, which would also reduce the number of medical marijuana businesses to the approximately 135 that were open before 2007, but which would not increase taxes on those businesses, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
486 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Yes24%26%22%33%32%16%15%32%16%24%26%29%7%60%17%32%19%31%21%24%42%21%16%21%32%19%24%31%20%
No37%39%35%32%37%40%35%35%38%42%33%30%34%21%39%34%38%33%41%29%21%42%46%27%33%42%32%34%43%
Not Certain40%35%44%35%31%43%49%33%46%34%42%41%58%19%43%34%44%36%38%47%37%37%39%52%35%39%44%35%38%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%
 
 
Last, on the third ballot measure, Measure F, which would not limit the number of businesses, but which would require them to submit to city audits, test marijuana for toxins, and keep a certain distance from schools, parks and other marijuana businesses, as well as increase taxes on those businesses, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
486 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanWhen Will You VoParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineBefore EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Yes54%57%51%58%58%47%53%58%50%55%58%55%41%70%51%58%51%48%57%53%54%54%58%52%63%49%51%63%51%
No17%17%17%16%20%17%15%18%16%17%8%22%17%13%18%16%17%22%16%17%19%17%18%17%13%20%13%17%20%
Not Certain29%26%32%25%23%37%32%24%34%28%33%24%42%17%31%25%32%30%28%30%27%29%24%31%24%31%36%21%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%45%55%18%30%26%26%48%52%50%11%27%12%15%85%37%58%21%59%19%22%43%28%11%35%54%25%33%42%