| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14613 |
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California Prop 8 Remains a Fierce Fight That Could Be Decided Either Way By Handful of Votes:
In a vote today, 10/17/08, on California's Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: 'Yes' (to change the law) 48%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 45%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business, so SurveyUSA urges all who examine these results to not put too fine a point on the 3 points that separate "Yes" and "No" today. In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past month, Proposition 8 has been fiercely fought, and effectively even, all 3 times. "No" nominally led by 5 points on 09/25/08. "Yes" nominally led by 5 points on 10/06/08. The movement from 10/06/08 to today is not necessarily statistically significant.
What remains clear today: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area continue to want the law left alone. Those in greater LA remain split. Men, seniors, gun owners, the less well educated and the more religious, support 8. Women, Democrats, liberals and Pro-Choice voters oppose. Young voters, upper-income voters, white voters, moderates and Independents split. There is no meaningful difference between how those who have already voted, and those who promise SurveyUSA they will, see the measure. |
| Filtering / Context / Caveats: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 California adults 10/15/08 and 10/16/08. Of the adults, 710 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 614 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. There is a challenge in any ballot measure polling as to how much of the ballot language to read to respondents. What is read to respondents influences how they respond. Here is exactly what SurveyUSA read to respondents on this question: "Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?" Separately, there is a challenge to polling on topics that have an emotional "charge" to them, such as same-sex marriage. Respondents may tell pollsters one thing and do another. Third, there is a challenge on polling a ballot measure with a "double-negative." In the case of Proposition 8, a "Yes" vote says "No" to same-sex marriage and a "No" vote says "Yes" to same-sex marriage. SurveyUSA has tried to construct the poll question in such a way that respondent confusion over what a "Yes" vote does and what a "No" vote does is minimized, but conceptual confusion remains a possibility in such cases. |
 | Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 615 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes | 48% | 53% | 42% | 44% | 47% | 46% | 57% | 45% | 51% | 48% | 58% | 47% | 42% | 73% | 33% | 42% | 79% | 45% | 21% | 49% | 47% | 45% | 51% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 80% | 31% | 56% | 43% | 49% | 47% | 57% | 48% | 52% | 37% |
| No | 45% | 41% | 48% | 46% | 46% | 50% | 35% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 38% | 41% | 48% | 23% | 58% | 52% | 18% | 47% | 72% | 46% | 45% | 49% | 40% | 31% | 40% | 61% | 18% | 59% | 37% | 50% | 43% | 46% | 36% | 44% | 42% | 55% |
| Not Certain | 7% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 33% | 24% | 19% | 57% | 43% | 59% | 6% | 23% | 12% | 33% | 48% | 18% | 26% | 42% | 25% | 19% | 81% | 54% | 46% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 65% | 31% | 65% | 32% | 68% | 19% | 39% | 18% | 24% |