Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #6515
Analysis: In an election for Governor of Virginia held today, 8/9/05, 3 months to the vote, Republican Jerry Kilgore edges Democrat Tim Kaine 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 568 likely Virginia voters, conducted exclusively for WSLS-TV in Roanoke. Independent Russ Potts gets 3%. 3% would vote for some other candidate. 4% are undecided. Election day is November 8th. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA WSLS-TV poll 6 weeks ago, Kilgore has lost 1 point, Kaine has gained 4 points. Kilgore's lead has shrunk from 10 points to 5 points. Kilgore gets 88% of the Republican vote. Kaine gets 83% of the Democrat vote. Kilgore leads by 14 points among men. Kaine leads by 3 points among women. Kaine support strongest among most educated voters, pro-choice voters. Interest in the Virginia contest has increased since SurveyUSA's previous poll. Six weeks ago, interviewing 1,200 Virginia adults produced 494 likely voters. Today, interviewing 1,200 Virginia adults produces 568 likely voters. A disproportionate number of those newly included in the likely voter model are female and black. In SurveyUSA's previous poll, the composition of likely voters was 52% male, 48% female. In today's poll, likely voters are 48% male, 52% female. In SurveyUSA's previous poll, blacks were 10% of likely voters. In today's poll, blacks are 17% of likely voters. The filtering and screening for the two polls was done identically.
Filtering: 1,200 Virginia adults were interviewed 8/6/05 - 8/8/05. Of them, 991 were registered voters. Of them, 568 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Voters in Virginia will elect a Governor on November 8th. If the election for Governor of Virginia were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jerry Kilgore? Democrat Tim Kaine? Independent Russ Potts? Or some other candidate?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationEducationIdeologyChurchAbortionUrban Suburban RuralRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleConservaModerateLiberalNot SureNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiNot SureUrbanSuburbanRuralNortheasSouthwesCentralRest of
Kilgore (R)48%52%44%48%52%45%45%54%17%****88%8%42%**39%55%51%48%76%35%10%**45%45%51%71%30%43%39%49%53%47%47%52%48%
Kaine (D)43%38%47%46%37%46%44%36%72%****5%83%45%**52%38%40%40%16%54%85%**47%43%41%20%61%43%49%43%36%46%44%41%41%
Potts (I)3%4%2%2%3%4%4%4%1%****2%3%6%**3%2%3%3%2%4%2%**5%4%2%2%4%2%4%3%3%3%2%2%3%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%19%33%28%20%75%17%3%5%39%35%26%1%27%24%24%25%40%45%12%3%18%31%50%42%51%7%24%53%24%22%14%9%55%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.