| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17047 |
| Largely Dependent on Hispanic Turnout, CA-20 Democrat Jim Costa Either Keeps His US House Seat ... Or Loses it in a Red Tide:
In the battle to represent California's 20th Congressional District in the US House of Representatives, Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican challenger Andy Vidak may be in a tight fight, or Costa may be ahead, with the outcome of the November election almost entirely dependent on how many Hispanic voters turn out, according to this latest exclusive KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Here are several ways to look at the contest.
* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.
* Men, gun owners, conservatives, whites, Tea Party supporters and pro-life voters back the Republican. Costa was first elected in 2004, with 54% of the vote; he ran unopposed in 2006 and won a 3rd term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Both candidates are ranchers; the 20th Congressional District is a major agricultural center. |
| Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 20th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/10/10 through 09/12/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Andy Vidak? Or Democrat Jim Costa? |
| 561 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Andy Vidak (R) | 46% | 53% | 39% | 45% | 45% | 48% | 44% | 45% | 46% | 59% | 32% | 26% | 41% | 79% | 15% | 49% | 75% | 34% | 17% | 85% | 10% | 41% | 24% | 49% | 44% | 51% | 36% | 50% | 59% | 34% | 59% | 33% | 36% | 56% |
| Jim Costa (D) | 48% | 43% | 53% | 45% | 50% | 46% | 52% | 48% | 49% | 37% | 62% | 64% | 51% | 16% | 80% | 40% | 21% | 62% | 74% | 12% | 87% | 51% | 59% | 46% | 50% | 43% | 57% | 48% | 36% | 62% | 37% | 61% | 59% | 39% |
| Undecided | 6% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 18% | 29% | 31% | 23% | 47% | 53% | 54% | 9% | 30% | 6% | 40% | 45% | 14% | 39% | 34% | 19% | 34% | 26% | 26% | 14% | 42% | 58% | 48% | 28% | 24% | 50% | 46% | 46% | 50% | 49% | 51% |