Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17047
Largely Dependent on Hispanic Turnout, CA-20 Democrat Jim Costa Either Keeps His US House Seat ... Or Loses it in a Red Tide:

In the battle to represent California's 20th Congressional District in the US House of Representatives, Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican challenger Andy Vidak may be in a tight fight, or Costa may be ahead, with the outcome of the November election almost entirely dependent on how many Hispanic voters turn out, according to this latest exclusive KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Here are several ways to look at the contest.

* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.
* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.
* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

* Men, gun owners, conservatives, whites, Tea Party supporters and pro-life voters back the Republican.
* Women, moderates, minorities and pro-choice voters back the Democrat.

Costa was first elected in 2004, with 54% of the vote; he ran unopposed in 2006 and won a 3rd term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Both candidates are ranchers; the 20th Congressional District is a major agricultural center.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 20th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/10/10 through 09/12/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Andy Vidak? Or Democrat Jim Costa?
561 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Andy Vidak (R)46%53%39%45%45%48%44%45%46%59%32%26%41%79%15%49%75%34%17%85%10%41%24%49%44%51%36%50%59%34%59%33%36%56%
Jim Costa (D)48%43%53%45%50%46%52%48%49%37%62%64%51%16%80%40%21%62%74%12%87%51%59%46%50%43%57%48%36%62%37%61%59%39%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%18%29%31%23%47%53%54%9%30%6%40%45%14%39%34%19%34%26%26%14%42%58%48%28%24%50%46%46%50%49%51%