Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19876
 
Washington State Governor Race Re-Tightens; Inslee Now 3 Atop McKenna, 3 Weeks Till Votes are Counted:

In an election for Governor of Washington state today, 10/15/12, Democrat Jay Inslee edges Republican Rob McKenna 47% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle. In 4 SurveyUSA polls of likely voters going back to August, Inslee has led by 3 points, 5 points, 6 points and now by 3 points again.

Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent poll on 10/01/12, McKenna has gained ground among voters age 50+, where Inslee had led by 8 points and now trails by 2. There is offsetting movement among political moderates, where Inslee had led by 15, now leads by 28.

Inslee's Net Favorability has declined to Plus 7, which is the lowest rating SurveyUSA has recorded among likely voters. 35% today have a favorable opinion of Inslee, 28% have an unfavorable opinion. In previous measurements, Inslee had been at Plus 11, Plus 13, and Plus 10.

McKenna's Net Favorability is at Plus 11 today. In previous measurements, his Net Favorability was at Plus 16, Plus 14, and Plus 8.

* By 43% to 32%, voters today say Inslee would be more likely to raise taxes.
* By 42% to 35%, voters today say McKenna would be stronger on education. This is a departure from 3 previous polls, when McKenna and Inslee were never more than 1 point apart.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of the adults, 628 were registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered, 543 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
Washington will elect a Governor in November. If the election were today, would you vote for Rob McKenna, who prefers the Republican party? Or Jay Inslee, who prefers the Democratic party?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)44%47%40%33%48%43%54%41%47%49%**19%28%35%47%88%6%47%71%41%84%31%7%100%0%41%45%43%44%46%39%48%61%34%
Inslee (D)47%45%49%53%45%47%42%49%45%43%**69%53%51%46%6%86%40%21%49%10%59%86%0%100%51%44%48%47%43%54%44%34%54%
Undecided9%8%11%14%7%11%5%10%8%8%**12%19%14%8%6%9%12%8%10%6%11%7%0%0%8%11%8%9%11%7%9%5%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations?
492 Who Are Not UndecidedAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
Enthusiastically74%75%74%61%76%79%81%69%80%71%**88%89%69%76%77%81%64%84%75%78%66%87%76%73%87%72%72%74%78%68%77%79%71%
With Reservations23%22%24%32%22%20%18%27%20%27%**12%6%22%24%20%17%33%16%23%20%31%10%22%25%11%25%26%24%18%30%22%18%26%
Not Sure3%3%2%7%2%1%0%4%1%2%**0%5%8%1%3%2%3%0%2%2%3%2%2%3%2%4%2%2%4%1%1%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Not Undecided100%49%51%25%27%29%20%51%49%80%3%8%8%24%76%28%36%35%7%87%36%40%20%48%52%15%43%42%30%40%30%27%23%49%
 
 
Is your opinion of Rob McKenna ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
Favorable38%43%35%30%41%38%47%36%41%41%**31%25%33%40%77%9%37%71%36%71%27%11%79%7%46%36%39%34%44%33%43%55%29%
Unfavorable27%26%27%20%32%32%20%26%27%24%**45%29%25%27%4%47%23%9%29%8%32%51%2%53%20%27%28%30%25%26%26%20%30%
Neutral30%26%33%43%23%24%31%33%27%30%**19%38%36%28%15%36%35%20%30%16%36%33%18%37%28%33%28%32%25%36%28%18%36%
No Opinion5%5%5%7%3%7%2%5%5%5%**5%8%6%5%3%7%5%0%6%4%5%5%1%4%7%4%6%4%5%6%3%7%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Is your opinion of Jay Inslee ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
Favorable35%34%36%32%35%37%33%34%36%31%**59%42%36%34%6%66%26%24%37%11%39%69%3%70%40%32%36%31%37%37%36%29%37%
Unfavorable28%30%27%13%35%32%33%24%33%33%**7%18%20%31%56%5%31%52%27%56%19%3%61%1%27%30%27%27%30%25%31%40%22%
Neutral31%31%32%46%26%24%31%36%27%32%**22%31%37%30%32%25%38%24%31%27%38%25%31%28%30%32%32%37%28%32%29%26%35%
No Opinion5%5%6%8%4%7%3%6%5%5%**12%9%7%5%6%4%6%0%6%6%4%3%4%0%4%6%5%5%6%6%5%5%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Who better reflects your positions on social issues? Rob McKenna, who prefers the Republican party? Or Jay Inslee, who prefers the Democratic party?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)42%48%37%32%42%44%52%37%47%46%**23%26%34%45%84%8%44%79%39%82%28%7%90%3%46%44%39%42%47%33%47%60%31%
Inslee (D)47%44%49%51%49%44%41%50%43%43%**70%55%46%47%5%84%43%16%50%12%59%83%4%91%44%43%51%45%43%55%44%34%54%
Not Sure11%8%15%16%9%12%7%12%10%11%**7%18%20%8%10%9%14%5%11%6%13%11%6%6%10%13%10%13%10%11%9%6%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Who is stronger on the environment?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)24%30%19%15%28%27%27%22%27%26%**21%14%17%27%48%5%26%62%22%46%17%4%51%4%27%25%23%22%24%24%28%34%18%
Inslee (D)48%47%49%59%47%42%43%53%43%44%**77%48%49%48%12%78%46%20%50%18%56%82%13%85%47%45%51%46%46%55%49%32%55%
Not Sure27%23%32%26%24%30%30%25%30%29%**2%37%34%25%40%16%28%18%28%36%27%13%36%10%26%30%26%32%30%20%23%34%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
7Who would be more likely to raise taxes in Washington state?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)32%30%34%41%31%29%23%36%27%29%**56%30%32%32%12%53%27%26%32%13%41%43%7%57%45%28%31%34%29%35%29%27%35%
Inslee (D)43%48%39%32%47%48%46%39%47%47%**20%39%35%46%70%16%49%66%40%73%34%18%81%13%39%44%44%41%46%40%49%56%34%
Not Sure25%23%27%27%22%23%30%24%26%24%**24%31%33%22%17%31%24%8%27%14%25%39%12%29%16%28%25%26%25%25%22%16%31%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Which candidate do you believe would be better at improving our state economy?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)43%47%39%34%47%42%51%40%46%47%**23%30%34%46%83%10%44%79%40%80%32%8%90%5%42%43%43%40%46%39%46%58%34%
Inslee (D)37%35%39%36%36%40%36%36%38%33%**62%49%42%36%5%70%29%16%40%8%41%77%2%74%47%35%36%38%37%38%42%29%38%
Not Sure20%18%22%30%17%18%14%24%16%20%**15%21%25%18%11%19%27%4%21%12%27%15%8%21%11%22%21%23%17%23%12%13%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Who is stronger on education?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)42%43%41%42%44%38%45%43%41%46%**30%24%32%45%74%11%48%88%39%70%38%8%77%13%44%39%43%36%43%45%39%54%38%
Inslee (D)35%36%33%32%37%37%33%34%35%31%**52%46%39%33%4%67%27%5%38%10%39%71%2%68%34%34%35%34%36%34%38%26%37%
Not Sure23%20%26%25%20%26%22%23%24%23%**19%30%29%22%22%22%26%8%24%20%23%21%21%19%22%26%21%30%21%21%22%20%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Which candidate do you think would bring more change to Olympia?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)45%50%41%39%46%45%53%43%48%48%**29%39%38%48%77%15%51%76%42%77%37%10%85%13%42%45%47%40%51%42%51%56%37%
Inslee (D)31%28%35%36%33%30%26%34%28%28%**52%34%36%30%4%60%24%10%34%8%40%55%1%63%40%27%32%33%28%34%30%22%36%
Not Sure23%23%24%25%22%25%21%23%23%24%**19%27%26%23%19%25%25%14%24%15%23%35%14%24%18%27%21%27%21%24%19%21%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Which candidate do you think is smarter?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)37%38%37%37%40%33%41%39%36%40%**29%31%31%39%65%10%44%67%35%62%31%11%71%11%35%36%39%33%35%44%40%43%34%
Inslee (D)29%29%28%28%31%30%24%30%28%24%**60%33%30%28%5%61%15%9%30%6%33%57%1%59%35%27%28%30%28%30%25%24%33%
Not Sure34%33%35%35%29%37%34%32%36%36%**11%36%38%32%30%29%41%24%35%32%35%32%28%30%30%37%33%37%38%26%35%33%33%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
Which candidate do you think is more likeable personally?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
McKenna (R)31%34%27%27%35%28%36%31%31%32%**23%27%31%31%57%9%33%61%29%56%22%7%63%4%40%30%28%30%34%25%31%35%29%
Inslee (D)44%43%44%49%42%44%38%46%42%40%**62%56%45%43%10%77%37%21%45%11%57%72%6%83%45%40%47%43%42%49%38%35%51%
Not Sure25%22%28%24%23%29%26%23%28%28%**16%17%24%26%33%15%30%19%26%33%21%21%31%13%15%29%25%27%24%26%31%30%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
In general, do you think the state of Washington is headed in the right direction? Or the wrong direction?
543 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyGovernor VoteEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalMcKennaInsleeHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KW WAE WAMetro Se
The Right Direction36%40%33%45%27%36%38%36%37%37%**32%33%30%38%15%50%39%21%39%18%39%67%16%58%45%28%42%37%31%45%34%29%41%
The Wrong Direction49%51%46%37%59%52%45%48%49%50%**53%43%49%48%72%27%52%78%45%72%43%12%73%26%43%56%42%49%52%41%53%56%43%
Not Sure15%9%21%18%15%12%17%16%14%13%**15%24%20%13%13%23%9%1%17%10%18%20%12%17%12%16%16%14%17%15%13%15%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%26%26%29%19%52%48%79%3%9%9%25%75%27%36%36%7%88%34%41%20%44%47%15%44%41%30%41%30%27%22%51%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.