Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16503
 
Six Months Out, Republicans Look to Hold MN Statehouse: In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 05/06/10, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor's seat is open.

In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party.

In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women -- a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters.

In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza, Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 05/03/10 through 05/05/10; of them, 859 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 588 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection.
 
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who would you vote for?
588 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)41%43%39%51%43%36%36%46%36%40%****43%79%8%34%74%28%9%41%41%46%38%29%65%18%41%41%38%41%46%36%31%41%
Kelliher (DFL)33%30%36%23%28%40%40%26%40%33%****31%7%66%26%8%44%63%34%33%30%40%36%12%54%28%38%35%33%30%38%40%35%
Horner (IP)9%12%5%7%8%11%7%8%9%8%****19%5%7%17%4%11%10%11%6%7%10%12%7%11%10%8%6%11%9%13%5%5%
Undecided17%14%20%18%21%12%17%20%14%18%****7%10%19%23%14%17%18%14%20%16%13%23%16%16%21%13%21%16%16%14%25%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%18%33%28%22%50%50%91%2%2%5%36%35%24%34%47%13%52%48%58%21%21%45%51%52%46%32%68%57%14%16%13%
 
 
What if the only candidates on the ballot for Governor were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?
588 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)42%48%35%52%47%35%34%49%35%43%****17%73%10%40%76%28%6%43%40%46%37%33%66%19%46%38%40%42%46%33%38%40%
Dayton (DFL)34%31%38%34%24%39%44%28%41%35%****32%13%66%25%13%41%71%31%39%32%43%33%16%53%30%39%38%33%31%34%43%40%
Horner (IP)9%10%8%3%10%13%8%8%11%9%****10%7%6%16%6%13%6%12%6%8%9%14%7%12%10%8%8%10%10%12%8%3%
Undecided15%11%19%11%19%14%14%16%14%14%****41%7%18%19%5%18%18%14%15%14%11%20%11%16%14%15%14%15%14%20%12%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%18%33%28%22%50%50%91%2%2%5%36%35%24%34%47%13%52%48%58%21%21%45%51%52%46%32%68%57%14%16%13%
 
 
What if the candidates were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Matt Entenza, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?
588 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)42%46%39%57%45%34%36%50%35%42%****43%80%10%36%79%27%8%42%42%48%35%33%67%19%44%41%39%43%48%36%41%27%
Entenza (DFL)31%31%31%22%32%36%31%28%34%31%****31%7%61%28%4%43%59%34%28%29%35%32%15%47%28%35%27%34%26%35%36%42%
Horner (IP)10%12%8%11%8%11%11%9%11%10%****18%5%10%19%8%12%9%12%9%9%10%16%6%14%11%11%12%9%11%13%7%6%
Undecided16%11%22%10%15%19%22%13%20%17%****8%8%20%17%8%18%24%11%21%14%20%19%12%19%18%14%22%14%15%17%16%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%18%33%28%22%50%50%91%2%2%5%36%35%24%34%47%13%52%48%58%21%21%45%51%52%46%32%68%57%14%16%13%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.