Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16503 |
Six Months Out, Republicans Look to Hold MN Statehouse: In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 05/06/10, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor's seat is open.
In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party. In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women -- a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters. In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza, Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided. |
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 05/03/10 through 05/05/10; of them, 859 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 588 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection. |
588 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
Emmer (R) | 41% | 43% | 39% | 51% | 43% | 36% | 36% | 46% | 36% | 40% | ** | ** | 43% | 79% | 8% | 34% | 74% | 28% | 9% | 41% | 41% | 46% | 38% | 29% | 65% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 38% | 41% | 46% | 36% | 31% | 41% |
Kelliher (DFL) | 33% | 30% | 36% | 23% | 28% | 40% | 40% | 26% | 40% | 33% | ** | ** | 31% | 7% | 66% | 26% | 8% | 44% | 63% | 34% | 33% | 30% | 40% | 36% | 12% | 54% | 28% | 38% | 35% | 33% | 30% | 38% | 40% | 35% |
Horner (IP) | 9% | 12% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | ** | ** | 19% | 5% | 7% | 17% | 4% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 5% | 5% |
Undecided | 17% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 12% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 18% | ** | ** | 7% | 10% | 19% | 23% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 23% | 16% | 16% | 21% | 13% | 21% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 25% | 19% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 33% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 36% | 35% | 24% | 34% | 47% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 58% | 21% | 21% | 45% | 51% | 52% | 46% | 32% | 68% | 57% | 14% | 16% | 13% |
What if the only candidates on the ballot for Governor were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? |
588 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
Emmer (R) | 42% | 48% | 35% | 52% | 47% | 35% | 34% | 49% | 35% | 43% | ** | ** | 17% | 73% | 10% | 40% | 76% | 28% | 6% | 43% | 40% | 46% | 37% | 33% | 66% | 19% | 46% | 38% | 40% | 42% | 46% | 33% | 38% | 40% |
Dayton (DFL) | 34% | 31% | 38% | 34% | 24% | 39% | 44% | 28% | 41% | 35% | ** | ** | 32% | 13% | 66% | 25% | 13% | 41% | 71% | 31% | 39% | 32% | 43% | 33% | 16% | 53% | 30% | 39% | 38% | 33% | 31% | 34% | 43% | 40% |
Horner (IP) | 9% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 9% | ** | ** | 10% | 7% | 6% | 16% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 3% |
Undecided | 15% | 11% | 19% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 14% | ** | ** | 41% | 7% | 18% | 19% | 5% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 12% | 17% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 33% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 36% | 35% | 24% | 34% | 47% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 58% | 21% | 21% | 45% | 51% | 52% | 46% | 32% | 68% | 57% | 14% | 16% | 13% |
What if the candidates were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Matt Entenza, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? |
588 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
Emmer (R) | 42% | 46% | 39% | 57% | 45% | 34% | 36% | 50% | 35% | 42% | ** | ** | 43% | 80% | 10% | 36% | 79% | 27% | 8% | 42% | 42% | 48% | 35% | 33% | 67% | 19% | 44% | 41% | 39% | 43% | 48% | 36% | 41% | 27% |
Entenza (DFL) | 31% | 31% | 31% | 22% | 32% | 36% | 31% | 28% | 34% | 31% | ** | ** | 31% | 7% | 61% | 28% | 4% | 43% | 59% | 34% | 28% | 29% | 35% | 32% | 15% | 47% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 34% | 26% | 35% | 36% | 42% |
Horner (IP) | 10% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 10% | ** | ** | 18% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 6% |
Undecided | 16% | 11% | 22% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 22% | 13% | 20% | 17% | ** | ** | 8% | 8% | 20% | 17% | 8% | 18% | 24% | 11% | 21% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 25% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 33% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 50% | 91% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 36% | 35% | 24% | 34% | 47% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 58% | 21% | 21% | 45% | 51% | 52% | 46% | 32% | 68% | 57% | 14% | 16% | 13% |