Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16503

Six Months Out, Republicans Look to Hold MN Statehouse: In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 05/06/10, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor's seat is open.

In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party.

In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women -- a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters.

In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza, Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 05/03/10 through 05/05/10; of them, 859 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 588 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection.

If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who would you vote for?

588 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Emmer (R)	243	131	112	54	83	59	47	137	106	216	7	6	13	166	17	48	147	74	7	121	114	155	46	35	167	51	118	105	68	152	153	30	28	31
Kelliher (DFL)	194	90	104	25	53	65	51	78	117	178	4	2	10	14	137	38	15	120	49	101	92	101	47	42	31	155	82	99	63	122	100	32	36	27
Horner (IP)	50	37	13	8	15	18	9	23	27	43	0	1	6	11	14	24	9	29	8	33	17	24	12	14	17	33	29	20	10	40	30	11	5	4
Undecided	101	43	58	19	40	20	22	59	42	98	1	0	2	20	38	32	27	47	14	42	56	55	15	27	42	47	60	34	37	59	52	12	23	15
Total	588	301	287	105	191	163	129	296	292	535	12	10	31	212	206	142	198	270	77	298	278	335	120	118	256	286	289	258	177	373	335	85	92	77
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	28%	22%	50%	50%	91%	2%	2%	5%	36%	35%	24%	34%	47%	13%	52%	48%	58%	21%	21%	45%	51%	52%	46%	32%	68%	57%	14%	16%	13%

What if the only candidates on the ballot for Governor were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?

588 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Emmer (R)	246	145	101	55	90	57	44	145	101	228	6	6	5	155	20	57	150	75	4	127	112	155	45	39	169	53	132	97	70	155	153	28	34	30
Dayton (DFL)	202	93	109	35	46	64	57	82	120	185	5	2	10	27	136	35	26	111	55	92	108	106	51	39	40	152	86	101	68	124	103	29	39	31
Horner (IP)	53	31	22	3	19	20	11	22	31	48	0	1	3	14	13	23	12	34	4	36	17	26	11	16	19	34	30	22	14	38	34	10	7	3
Undecided	87	32	55	11	36	22	18	47	40	74	1	0	13	16	37	26	10	49	14	43	41	47	13	24	28	47	41	38	24	56	45	17	11	13
Total	588	301	287	105	191	163	129	296	292	535	12	10	31	212	206	142	198	270	77	298	278	335	120	118	256	286	289	258	177	373	335	85	92	77
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	28%	22%	50%	50%	91%	2%	2%	5%	36%	35%	24%	34%	47%	13%	52%	48%	58%	21%	21%	45%	51%	52%	46%	32%	68%	57%	14%	16%	13%

What if the candidates were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Matt Entenza, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?

588 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Emmer (R)	249	138	111	60	87	55	47	147	102	224	6	5	13	169	20	51	157	73	6	126	116	161	42	39	171	55	126	105	69	160	161	30	38	21
Entenza (DFL)	182	94	88	23	61	59	39	84	98	166	4	2	10	16	125	40	8	117	45	102	78	98	41	38	38	136	81	90	48	126	87	30	33	32
Horner (IP)	60	37	23	12	15	19	15	27	33	54	0	1	5	11	20	27	17	32	7	35	25	29	12	19	16	40	31	28	22	35	38	11	6	5
Undecided	97	32	65	10	29	30	28	39	58	91	2	1	2	16	41	24	17	48	19	34	60	46	24	22	30	55	52	35	39	52	49	14	15	19
Total	588	301	287	105	191	163	129	296	292	535	12	10	31	212	206	142	198	270	77	298	278	335	120	118	256	286	289	258	177	373	335	85	92	77
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	28%	22%	50%	50%	91%	2%	2%	5%	36%	35%	24%	34%	47%	13%	52%	48%	58%	21%	21%	45%	51%	52%	46%	32%	68%	57%	14%	16%	13%