| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15878 |
| In Virginia, 4 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted, Republicans Remain Poised to Win 3 Top Statewide Contests: |
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Middle-Aged, Women See Something in Deeds, But Little Else Is New :
In en election for Virginia Governor today, 10/05/09, one month until votes are counted, Republican Bob McDonnell defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds, 54% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Deeds has gained ground among women, among voters age 50 to 64, and in Southeast VA. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for WJLA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, McDonnell has polled at 55%, 54%, 55%, 54%. Deeds has polled at 40%, 42%, 41%, 43%.
In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, Incumbent Republican Bill Bolling is today elected to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 57% to 40%. Bolling is consolidating support among men, where he now leads 2:1, and among more educated Virginians, where he now leads 3:2. In the Attorney General contest, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli today defeats Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 53% to 43%. There is offsetting gender movement: men drifting to the Republican, women drifting to the Democrat. And there is offsetting regional movement: Central VA drifting to the Republican, Southeast VA drifting to the Democrat. Otherwise, the complexion of the is contest is largely unchanged. |
| Filtering: 1,000 Virginia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/02/09 through 10/04/09. Of them, 851 were registered to vote. Of them, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tim Kaine is term limited; his seat is open. Incumbent Republican Attorney General Bill Mims was appointed to the seat by the Virginia General Assembly in February 2009, when Bob McDonnell resigned to campaign full-time for Governor, and is not seeking election to the office. |
 | If the election for Virginia governor were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Bob McDonnell? Or Democrat Creigh Deeds? |
| 608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | 2008 Vote | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Obama | McCain | Shenando | Northeas | Southeas | Central | |
| McDonnell (R) | 54% | 62% | 47% | 56% | 56% | 48% | 57% | 56% | 51% | 62% | 17% | ** | ** | 89% | 11% | 54% | 85% | 41% | 12% | 53% | 54% | 58% | 52% | 45% | 77% | 33% | 63% | 43% | 48% | 56% | 10% | 90% | 59% | 50% | 44% | 59% |
| Deeds (D) | 43% | 36% | 49% | 43% | 39% | 50% | 37% | 40% | 45% | 34% | 77% | ** | ** | 9% | 88% | 39% | 12% | 56% | 86% | 43% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 51% | 20% | 64% | 33% | 54% | 48% | 41% | 87% | 7% | 36% | 47% | 54% | 37% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 19% | 33% | 30% | 18% | 52% | 48% | 78% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 39% | 38% | 15% | 59% | 41% | 53% | 26% | 22% | 49% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 28% | 72% | 44% | 52% | 26% | 28% | 18% | 28% |
 | Virginia will also elect a lieutenant governor. If the election for lieutenant governor were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Bill Bolling? Or Democrat Jody Wagner? |
| 608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | 2008 Vote | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Obama | McCain | Shenando | Northeas | Southeas | Central | |
| Bolling (R) | 57% | 65% | 50% | 57% | 60% | 51% | 61% | 59% | 55% | 65% | 19% | ** | ** | 90% | 15% | 59% | 87% | 46% | 13% | 57% | 56% | 61% | 55% | 48% | 79% | 37% | 68% | 44% | 50% | 59% | 16% | 91% | 62% | 53% | 50% | 60% |
| Wagner (D) | 40% | 33% | 46% | 42% | 35% | 46% | 37% | 38% | 42% | 32% | 76% | ** | ** | 8% | 84% | 35% | 10% | 50% | 86% | 40% | 41% | 35% | 44% | 49% | 18% | 61% | 29% | 52% | 46% | 38% | 82% | 6% | 34% | 44% | 50% | 35% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 19% | 33% | 30% | 18% | 52% | 48% | 78% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 39% | 38% | 15% | 59% | 41% | 53% | 26% | 22% | 49% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 28% | 72% | 44% | 52% | 26% | 28% | 18% | 28% |
 | Virginia will also elect an attorney general. If the election for attorney general were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Ken Cuccinelli? Or Democrat Steve Shannon? |
| 608 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | 2008 Vote | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Obama | McCain | Shenando | Northeas | Southeas | Central | |
| Cuccinelli (R) | 53% | 59% | 49% | 56% | 55% | 47% | 58% | 56% | 51% | 62% | 15% | ** | ** | 88% | 12% | 53% | 83% | 43% | 13% | 53% | 53% | 57% | 52% | 44% | 75% | 33% | 60% | 45% | 47% | 56% | 14% | 87% | 56% | 50% | 48% | 58% |
| Shannon (D) | 43% | 38% | 47% | 43% | 40% | 49% | 37% | 41% | 44% | 34% | 79% | ** | ** | 10% | 86% | 39% | 15% | 52% | 83% | 43% | 43% | 38% | 45% | 52% | 23% | 62% | 36% | 51% | 49% | 41% | 82% | 10% | 38% | 47% | 50% | 38% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | 1% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 19% | 33% | 30% | 18% | 52% | 48% | 78% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 39% | 38% | 15% | 59% | 41% | 53% | 26% | 22% | 49% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 28% | 72% | 44% | 52% | 26% | 28% | 18% | 28% |