Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17575
 
As President Obama Heads to VA-05 to Stump for Perriello, Republican Hurt Still Positioned to Capture House Seat for GOP: Democrats declare "all in" in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, where, 5 days until votes are counted and 24 hours until Barack Obama rides to the rescue, you can argue the case both ways: in favor of a stunning upset for incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello, who has trailed in every pre-election poll this cycle, or, a lot of fuss for no reason, about a district that was bound to go Republican in 2010, even though all the King's horses and all the King's men tried to put Perriello back together again.

The poll results lay out this way: Of the handful of Virginia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Perriello has a big advantage. Maybe his supporters are singularly motivated, and those who have not yet voted are "all talk." SurveyUSA asks the Virginians who have not yet voted how likely they are to vote on a 1 to 10 scale, and in this contest, SurveyUSA accepts '9' and '10' answers as 'likely voters.' It turns out the '9' likely-voters back the Democrat Perriello, by a lot. More good news for the Democrat. But: the '10' likely voters, the ones who are exceptionally charged up, the ones who are rarin' to go, back the Republican Robert Hurt. When SurveyUSA combines the small group of Virginians who have already voted, and the likely-to-vote 9's with the likely-to-vote 10's, the blended result is, Hurt 51%, Perriello 43%, a new Republican seat in the House. Can President Obama siphon 10 percent of Hurt's supporters to Perriello, or twice the number of undecided voters to Perriello, which is what it would take to hold this one seat symbolically for the Democrats? We'll know on Tuesday.

Women are moving slightly to the Democrat in this 5th and final tracking poll for WDBJ-TV, but men are moving to the Republican. Independents are not budging; they break 2:1 Republican. Perriello has gained ground among more affluent voters, where he still trails, has effectively caught Hurt among lower-income voters, and has leapfrogged Hurt among voters age 50 to 64.

 
Filtering 700 adults with home telephones from Virginia's 5th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/27/10 using RDD sample from Survey Sampling. Of them, 648 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 524 were determined to have already voted or to be likely to vote on Election Day, and are included here.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Robert Hurt? Democrat Tom Perriello? Or Independent Jeffrey Clark?
524 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Likely To VoteParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNo910RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Robert Hurt (R)51%57%45%41%57%43%59%52%50%62%14%****34%53%38%55%87%7%59%79%33%19%86%11%60%32%42%51%56%61%37%42%52%51%53%52%41%70%32%60%31%47%52%
Tom Perriello (D)43%37%48%49%38%50%36%42%44%32%81%****59%41%54%39%10%88%31%16%62%79%10%87%33%47%49%43%40%36%54%51%46%41%40%42%56%26%61%35%62%45%43%
Jeffrey Clark (I)2%3%2%2%2%4%1%2%3%3%0%****0%3%4%2%2%1%6%3%2%1%3%1%2%3%4%2%2%2%5%3%1%4%3%2%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%
Undecided4%3%4%8%3%3%3%5%3%3%6%****7%3%4%3%1%3%4%2%3%0%1%1%4%18%4%4%1%1%4%4%2%5%4%4%1%3%3%3%4%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%15%29%30%25%45%55%76%22%1%1%9%91%16%84%37%34%26%46%35%9%34%30%24%12%20%42%38%55%11%31%40%60%61%25%15%51%43%62%33%50%50%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.