Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16852
 
3-Way Photo Finish Still Possible in Republican Primary for Open Seat in Kansas' 1st Congressional District:

In a Republican Primary for US House of Representatives in Kansas' 1st Congressional District today, 07/27/10, 1 week until votes are counted, 3 candidates tie, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.

State Senator Jim Barnett 24%, State Senator Tim Huelskamp 24%, and Realtor Tracey Mann 24%, as the final week of campaigning begins. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, the contest is effectively unchanged; Barnett and Mann are each down a statistically insignificant 1 point, and Huelskamp is up 2 points. The contest had been a 3-way tie, remains a 3-way tie. Mann had been in the news for several days immediately prior to the field period for this survey. No immediate movement, down or up, yet appears in Mann's numbers.

Barnett may have one ever-so-slight advantage: Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Bennett leads. Barnett many not have many "banked" votes -- just 9% of likely voters have taken advantage of advance voting -- but Barnett may not need many banked voters with 3 evenly matched front-runners.

The Republican primary winner will face Democrat Alan Jilka, former mayor of Salinas, in November. Incumbent Republican Representative Jerry Moran is running for United States Senate and is not seeking reelection.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 Kansas adults 07/24/10 through 07/26/10. Of them, 1,419 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 526 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/03/10 Republican Primary. Advance voting began 07/14/10. The Primary is 08/03/10.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the Republican Primary for US House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Jim Barnett? Sue Boldra? Marck Cobb? Tim Huelskamp? Tracey Mann? Or Rob Wasinger?
526 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?IdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Barnett24%25%24%25%22%23%27%23%25%23%******38%23%24%28%**24%27%24%21%26%23%24%28%21%22%29%23%26%21%27%
Boldra7%8%5%21%4%8%4%7%6%6%******6%7%6%9%**5%10%8%6%9%5%6%5%11%5%10%8%4%4%8%
Cobb2%1%3%0%3%2%2%2%2%2%******1%2%1%4%**1%6%1%3%2%2%2%0%4%1%4%1%4%2%2%
Huelskamp24%25%22%18%22%25%24%21%25%23%******21%24%29%13%**30%12%17%15%20%26%24%20%24%30%12%25%18%29%19%
Mann24%24%24%16%26%26%23%24%24%25%******21%24%23%28%**21%25%31%26%26%23%25%25%21%23%27%24%26%20%27%
Wasinger12%11%13%16%13%10%12%14%11%12%******5%13%11%11%**11%12%11%19%12%12%11%14%13%13%11%12%15%14%11%
Undecided7%6%9%3%10%6%8%9%7%8%******8%7%6%7%**7%7%7%10%5%9%8%7%6%7%6%7%8%9%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%6%25%33%35%31%69%94%1%2%3%9%91%64%27%4%55%14%23%8%44%56%70%19%11%65%33%69%29%43%57%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.