Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441
 
5 Weeks from KY Senate Primaries, Rand Paul Steady Atop Trey Grayson; Dan Mongiardo Loses Ground to Jack Conway:

In a Republican Primary for US Senate today, 04/12/10, 5 weeks from the vote, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 45% to 30%, according to this exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, both candidates have gained 3 points. Paul, an eye surgeon, political activist, and son of Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul, leads by double digits among men and women, among conservatives, pro-life voters, gun owners, those without college educations, those with lower household incomes, and in western and north-central Kentucky. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, is competitive among middle-aged voters, moderate and liberal voters, those who do not own guns, college graduates, those with higher incomes, and in Eastern Kentucky. Grayson leads today only among the 1 in 5 Republican primary voters who say they are pro-choice. 3 other candidates on the Republican ballot today remain in single digits; 1 additional candidate, Bill Johnson, dropped out of the race and was not included for this release in the list of names read to voters. 5 weeks ago, Johnson had 5% of the vote.

In a Democratic primary for US Senate today, Dan Mongiardo has lost ground among women, the wealthy and among those in Western KY, and now finds himself running even with Jack Conway. Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, gets 35% today, down 10 points from a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Conway, Kentucky's Attorney General, gets 32% today, up 5 points in the past 5 weeks. Mongiardo had led by 19 among women, now trails by 2, a swing of 21 points to Conway. Mongiardo had led by 14 among wealthier Democrats, now trails by 5, a swing of 19 points to Conway. Mongiardo had led 4:1 in Western KY, now leads there narrowly, a swing of 35 points to Conway. 3 other candidates combine today to take 11% of the vote; 21% of likely primary voters are undecided.

 
2010 General Election Remains Anyone's To Win: After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to the general election in November. Today, 44% of registered Kentucky voters say they will vote for the Republican US Senate candidate in November; 41% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. 15% today say they are undecided, including 30% of independents.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 KY adults 04/09/10 through 04/11/10. Of them, 1,894 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 446 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 GOP Primary; 659 were determined to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election.
 
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson?
446 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Grayson30%33%26%16%35%35%26%29%31%30%******30%****29%32%39%38%23%32%27%31%27%42%29%37%22%38%22%33%32%34%
Paul45%45%46%53%37%45%53%42%48%46%******45%****51%38%39%44%47%49%42%38%50%32%48%37%49%42%51%42%49%38%
Martin2%1%3%5%2%1%0%3%1%2%******2%****1%3%0%1%2%1%3%1%2%2%2%1%1%2%3%2%1%2%
Scribner1%1%1%0%2%1%2%1%1%1%******1%****0%4%0%1%2%1%2%2%1%3%1%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%
Stephenson3%3%2%0%2%4%2%2%4%3%******3%****2%5%6%1%4%3%4%1%2%5%3%2%5%2%2%2%2%5%
Undecided19%16%22%26%22%13%16%23%15%19%******19%****16%18%16%15%21%14%23%28%18%16%15%22%22%15%21%21%13%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%57%43%14%33%33%21%47%53%98%1%0%1%100%0%0%64%28%6%46%54%60%26%14%76%21%67%29%42%58%23%22%32%23%
 
 
If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney?
659 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Conway32%29%35%34%29%36%32%30%34%33%32%******32%**34%32%37%34%32%33%26%39%33%30%31%35%25%39%29%49%29%17%
Mongiardo35%36%33%35%38%31%36%37%33%36%28%******35%**20%40%42%35%34%32%37%41%27%42%37%34%35%34%33%27%35%50%
Buckmaster4%4%4%5%6%4%2%6%3%4%2%******4%**8%3%4%5%4%4%7%2%7%2%4%4%6%3%3%2%5%7%
Price5%5%5%4%4%5%7%4%6%5%7%******5%**4%5%4%4%6%5%4%8%6%5%6%3%7%3%6%5%4%6%
Sweeney2%3%1%4%2%2%2%3%2%2%10%******2%**3%3%1%3%2%3%2%1%3%2%2%3%2%3%1%2%4%0%
Undecided21%21%22%17%22%22%22%20%22%21%20%******21%**32%17%13%19%23%23%25%10%24%19%20%21%25%19%28%14%24%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%47%53%14%29%33%25%42%58%91%7%1%1%0%100%0%24%47%22%39%61%59%23%17%44%53%58%39%47%53%21%28%35%16%
 
 
If the General Eelection for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate?
1894 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Republican Candidate44%48%40%41%44%45%46%43%45%46%12%****80%18%37%74%31%15%48%42%49%39%35%57%26%49%35%39%48%49%38%45%47%
Democratic Candidate41%39%43%38%41%40%44%40%41%38%75%****6%67%33%14%52%74%37%43%37%43%50%28%60%37%48%44%38%33%48%42%38%
Undecided15%13%17%20%15%15%10%17%13%16%13%****13%14%30%12%17%11%16%15%14%18%15%15%15%14%17%17%14%18%15%14%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%31%29%20%51%49%91%6%1%1%39%53%9%38%40%15%37%63%54%28%19%57%40%58%39%50%50%23%27%33%18%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.