Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17035
 
California: Fiorina and Boxer Still in Tight Fight; Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown; Some Traction for Those Opposed to Legal Weed: Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer remains locked in a tight fight with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. 3 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls have shown the contest within the theoretical margin of sampling error, though, in all 3 cases, the Republican has been nominally ahead, confounding many observers and, for now, preserving the possibility of a take-away. Today, it's Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%. There is movement, or perhaps statistical noise, among Hispanic voters.

In the contest for Governor of California, it's Republican Meg Whitman 47%, Democrat Jerry Brown 40% today. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Whitman is up 3, Brown is down 3. But, compared to a SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago: no change. Among men, the race has been flat since polling began in July, with Whitman at 50% in each poll, and Brown at 35% to 37%. Among women, more volatility, with Brown 13 points atop Whitman 3 weeks ago, but tied with the former eBay CEO both 7 weeks ago and today.

Opposition to Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow for its regulation and taxation, has grown. Two previous SurveyUSA polls both showed the measure passing by 10 points; today: 47% vote Yes to legalize, 43% vote No. Women, older voters, minorities, and Central Valley voters have all moved toward "No." Support remains above 50% among men, younger voters, whites, Democrats, liberals and moderates, and in the Bay Area.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, remains nominally ahead in the contest for Lieutenant Governor, where incumbent Republican Republican Abel Maldonado may have lost a couple of points compared to 3 weeks ago. Today it's Newsom 44% to Maldonado 39%. There is movement among men.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 08/31/10 through 09/01/10. Of them, 844 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 2 months from today. Early voting begins in just over 1 month, on 10/04/10.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate?
569 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Whitman (R)47%50%45%40%47%51%49%44%50%52%32%37%47%82%20%59%78%41%16%80%15%49%43%45%51%66%34%58%41%52%45%48%61%47%50%34%
Brown (D)40%36%44%43%42%38%39%42%38%38%61%45%38%8%66%31%14%44%75%11%73%37%27%46%33%22%53%34%45%36%41%41%27%40%37%54%
Other9%11%7%9%6%10%11%7%10%9%4%13%6%9%10%7%7%10%5%8%5%9%28%5%14%7%10%6%10%11%11%7%8%7%13%9%
Undecided4%3%4%8%5%1%2%6%1%2%2%5%9%2%5%3%2%5%3%1%6%5%2%5%2%4%4%2%5%1%3%5%4%6%0%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%31%20%49%51%63%5%18%14%31%47%22%30%46%18%36%37%20%8%56%44%36%59%33%61%19%32%49%20%38%18%24%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
California will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from California were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carly Fiorina? Democrat Barbara Boxer? Or another candidate?
569 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Fiorina (R)48%54%42%37%50%49%52%46%50%55%20%34%47%91%16%58%87%36%17%86%12%52%37%47%50%75%30%62%38%49%42%51%63%46%56%33%
Boxer (D)46%41%51%61%44%44%41%50%43%39%75%62%46%4%79%35%8%57%80%11%82%38%58%48%44%20%64%33%56%43%51%44%28%50%39%60%
Other5%4%5%1%5%5%7%3%6%6%5%1%5%5%4%5%5%5%2%3%5%8%3%4%5%4%4%3%5%5%5%4%7%4%4%5%
Undecided1%1%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%0%1%2%2%0%1%3%0%2%1%0%1%3%2%0%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%0%2%0%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%31%20%49%51%63%5%18%14%31%47%22%30%46%18%36%37%20%8%56%44%36%59%33%61%19%32%49%20%38%18%24%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
California will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Abel Maldonado? Democrat Gavin Newsom? Or another candidate?
569 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Maldonado (R)39%41%36%37%36%37%47%36%41%44%18%30%34%73%13%47%71%34%10%63%20%41%12%41%37%55%27%52%30%41%35%41%52%33%37%38%
Newsom (D)44%41%46%57%42%41%39%47%40%40%62%52%43%9%73%29%11%48%78%15%68%41%63%42%44%20%59%33%51%40%49%41%26%47%43%53%
Other15%16%14%5%17%19%12%13%16%13%17%14%21%16%11%21%16%14%11%21%10%9%22%14%15%23%10%13%16%18%12%16%18%17%17%7%
Undecided3%2%4%1%5%3%2%4%2%3%4%4%1%3%3%3%3%4%1%1%2%8%3%2%4%2%3%2%3%1%5%2%4%3%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%31%20%49%51%63%5%18%14%31%47%22%30%46%18%36%37%20%8%56%44%36%59%33%61%19%32%49%20%38%18%24%
 
 
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {"Not Certain" voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
569 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Certain Yes47%54%40%59%46%47%37%51%43%52%40%38%39%39%51%49%30%52%61%37%57%47%41%48%45%31%58%42%48%42%48%46%40%48%42%54%
Certain No43%41%46%33%44%45%48%40%46%40%44%55%44%53%40%38%61%38%31%54%33%44%46%43%44%61%32%50%42%48%44%44%51%42%48%37%
Not Certain10%5%14%8%10%8%15%9%11%8%16%7%17%9%9%13%9%9%9%9%10%8%13%9%11%8%10%8%10%10%8%10%10%10%10%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%31%20%49%51%63%5%18%14%31%47%22%30%46%18%36%37%20%8%56%44%36%59%33%61%19%32%49%20%38%18%24%