Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19214
 
5 Days Until Votes Counted in Oregon Primary, Rosenblum Poised For Attorney General Win; Obama 4 Atop Romney in November Match-Up:

In a Democratic primary for Oregon Attorney General today, 05/10/12, 5 days until ballots are counted, former State Court of Appeals Judge Ellen Rosenblum defeats former US Attorney Dwight Holton 52% to 27%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland. Among the 40% of Democratic primary voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned their ballots, Rosenblum leads by 34 points; among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to return a ballot but have not yet done so, Rosenblum leads by 20. Holton has strength among more conservative Democrats -- a minority in this primary election.

In the formality of a Republican Primary for President of the United States today, Mitt Romney wins with 58% of the vote. Ron Paul, the only opponent who has not withdrawn from the race, finishes second with 14%, just ahead of Rick Santorum at 11%; Newt Gingrich gets 6%. Santorum and Gingrich have both withdrawn from the race.

In a November match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for President of the United States, Obama today edges Romney, 47% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, when the Republican primary was still competitive, Obama is down 3 points; Romney is up 4. Among women, Obama leads by 13; among men, Romney leads by 6 -- a 19-point gender gap. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 16 points in Oregon.

Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,680 Oregon adults 05/07/12 through 05/10/12. Of the adults, 1,468 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 425 had already returned a ballot or were likely to do so in the 05/15/12 Republican primary, and that 432 had already returned a ballot or were likely to do so in the 05/15/12 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (17% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In this research, cell respondents and home phone respondents vote differently. Obama's advantage over Romney comes entirely from cell-phone respondents. Cell respondents are 17 points more likely to vote Obama than are home-phone respondents. Among respondents interviewed on their home phone, the Obama-Romney contest is tied. 68% of the interviews for this survey were completed before President Obama announced his support of same-sex marriage. 32% of interviews for this survey were completed after Obama's announcement.

 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul? Rick Santorum? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
425 Likely & Actual Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Romney58%58%58%55%45%60%72%49%66%59%**67%41%63%55%59%58%58%****62%57%52%71%47%****55%57%61%59%59%58%57%58%62%52%54%65%
Gingrich6%5%8%5%5%10%5%5%8%6%**19%3%9%5%2%7%6%****9%6%13%3%6%****8%7%4%6%6%7%4%9%5%5%8%4%
Paul14%17%11%22%22%7%8%22%8%14%**14%21%10%17%12%15%14%****16%13%12%9%22%****18%13%14%13%15%13%18%12%12%22%14%14%
Santorum11%12%10%7%13%15%8%10%12%11%**0%12%10%12%7%12%11%****10%11%19%9%7%****11%11%10%12%9%14%6%12%9%14%13%9%
Other3%2%4%6%2%3%2%4%3%3%**0%7%4%3%3%3%3%****3%3%2%3%6%****1%5%2%4%3%2%5%2%6%1%4%2%
Undecided7%6%8%5%13%5%4%10%4%7%**0%16%4%9%18%5%7%****1%8%1%5%13%****7%7%7%5%8%5%9%8%8%6%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Republican Primary Voters100%53%47%19%27%30%25%46%54%88%2%5%6%38%62%15%85%100%0%0%13%82%25%44%24%3%1%19%42%39%50%46%62%35%29%42%29%63%37%
 
 
2If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic primary for Oregon Attorney General today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) Dwight Holton? or Ellen Rosenblum?
432 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Holton27%34%21%31%30%20%32%30%25%26%**40%14%28%26%32%26%**27%****25%54%28%26%28%20%31%31%23%40%24%42%24%22%28%33%28%25%
Rosenblum52%52%53%56%36%58%52%46%56%53%**42%60%62%46%42%54%**52%****55%34%42%51%56%62%40%52%56%37%57%38%58%59%53%43%54%49%
Undecided21%14%27%13%34%21%16%24%19%21%**18%26%10%28%26%20%**21%****20%12%31%23%16%17%29%17%22%23%19%21%19%19%19%24%19%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%18%18%38%27%36%64%80%3%10%7%40%60%15%85%0%100%0%5%93%6%12%28%34%17%15%37%48%19%80%19%78%33%41%26%67%33%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
1468 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CYesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Barack Obama (D)47%42%52%49%41%51%47%45%49%47%**51%43%52%48%52%46%10%83%44%21%50%16%19%47%92%78%40%47%51%26%57%22%64%48%48%44%50%40%
Mitt Romney (R)43%48%39%38%48%41%47%43%44%45%**34%39%44%49%35%45%84%13%33%73%40%75%74%37%6%16%47%44%41%63%34%67%29%41%45%46%38%53%
Undecided10%10%10%13%11%8%6%12%7%9%**15%18%4%3%13%9%6%4%23%6%10%9%7%16%2%6%13%10%8%11%9%11%7%11%7%10%11%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%26%26%29%19%52%48%83%2%8%7%39%61%18%82%35%38%27%7%90%11%25%32%17%10%20%39%41%30%66%37%58%34%39%27%66%34%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.