Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23128

Could 2016 Be 1st Time That Maine Electoral Votes Split? Trump Up By 10 Points in 2nd Congressional District; Clinton Up By 18 in 1st District; 54% Give Republican Governor LePage Vote of 'No Confidence'; GOP Incumbent Poliquin Has Slight Edge in Re-Match with Democrat Cain: For the first time in Maine's history, the state's electoral votes may not all go to one candidate, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Colby College of Waterville, Maine, and the Boston Globe newspaper. In what should be a solid-blue state, Democrat Hillary Clinton today barely edges Republican Donald Trump 42% to 39%, eight weeks till votes are counted. Should Clinton carry the state on Election Day, she would pick up at least 3 of the state's 4 electoral votes. But Maine does not allocate its electoral votes "winner take all." Maine awards two votes to the statewide winner, and one additional vote to the winner of each of the state's two U.S. Congressional Districts. Today, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points in C.D. #2. This single electoral vote is inconsequential in a landslide, but in a close race, and depending on how the chips fall in other states, Northern Maine's half-a-million residents could be kingmakers. 30 days until early-voting begins: Clinton, who leads by 3, is running 12 points weaker than Barack Obama did in 2012, when he carried Maine by 15 points. Not since 2000, when Democrat Al Gore carried Maine by 5 percentage points, has the state been this closely contested. A 38-point Gender Gap carves up the state. Trump carries Maine men by 17 points. Clinton carries Maine women by 21 points. Trump holds 86% of the Republican base, surrendering 8% to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polls at 9% overall, but who draws 4 times as many Republican votes as he does Democrat. Clinton holds 88% of the Democratic base, surrendering 5% to Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Independent voters split, 34% Clinton, 34% Trump, 14% Johnson, 9% Stein. (Independent candidate Evan McMullin is not on the ballot in Maine.) In the 1st Congressional District, which includes greater Portland, along the coast to Camden and up though Augusta and Waterville, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points, 49% to 31%. Regardless of whether Clinton carries the state, she is almost certain to carry this Congressional District, ensuring her of 1 electoral vote. In the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Lewiston and Auburn, Bangor, northern and rural parts of the state and Downeast, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Those who envision a possible 269-to-269 electoral-vote tie as one 2016 outcome, see Maine's 2nd District as critical for Trump. Since 1972, when Maine first set up its current allocation system, the state's 4 electoral votes have always gone to 1 candidate. If CD #2 goes one way and the rest of the state goes another, it will be the first time in history. Of Trump supporters, 63% say they are voting "for" Trump; 37% say they are voting "against" Clinton. Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting "for" Clinton; 35% say they are voting "against" Trump. 73% of Trump voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 26% who vote for Trump with reservations. 65% of Clinton voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 34% who vote for Clinton with reservations. Trump leads among voters under age 50. Clinton leads among voters age 50+. Trump leads by 16 points among voters with a high-school education. Clinton leads by 22 points among voters with a 4-year college degree. Clinton leads among the most affluent and least affluent voters. Trump leads among middle-income voters. In Maine's 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree is poised for easy re-election to her 5th term, today 20 points atop Republican challenger Mark Holbrook. In Maine's 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin, first elected in 2014 when the seat was open, seeks his 2nd term. Today, Poliquin leads Democratic challenger Emily Cain 50% to 45% in a 2014 re-match, when Poliquin defeated Cain 47% to 42%. (Independent Blaine Richardson received 11% of the 2014 vote; there is no independent on the 2016 Congressional ballot.) 54% of Mainers statewide, including 90% of Democrats, 63% of women, 62% of college-educated voters and 56% of Independents, today say they have no confidence in Republican Governor Paul LePage's ability to govern. 40% of Mainers, including 85% of Republicans, say they have confidence in LePage. Of those with no confidence in LePage, 72% vote for Clinton. Of those with confidence in LePage, 81% vote for Trump. LePage is viewed extremely unfavorably by 48% of voters, compared to just 18% who view him extremely favorably. 64% of Mainers say the level of civility in Maine politics has gotten worse since LePage took office in 2010, 4 times as many as say that civility under LePage has gotten better. When voters are asked about a hypothetical 2018 match-up for United States Senator between Independent incumbent Angus King and LePage, King wipes the floor with LePage, 59% to 37%. Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the state of Maine 09/04/16 through 09/10/16. Of the adults 903 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 779 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 general election. Of the likely voters, 382 were from the 1st Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points in either direction), 397 were from the 2nd Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points in either direction). This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The last time a Republican carried Maine was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush of Kennebunkport defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis by 12 points. In 1992, Bill Clinton carried the state by 8 points over Independent Ross Perot, with Bush finishing 3rd. In 1996, Clinton carried the state by 21 points over Republican Bob Dole. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the state by 9 points over George W. Bush. In 2008, Obama carried the state by 17 points. During the field period for this survey, Libertarian Johnson asked, "What is Aleppo?" during a TV interview. It is unclear whether Johnson's support will diminish or be unaffected by this perceived gaffe, and how that might impact Trump's support. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton called some Trump supporters a "basket of deplorables." All of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton experienced a medical episode during a 09/11 memorial service in New York City. Nebraska is the only other state that allocates electoral votes by Congressional District.

1	If the election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Donald Trump, the Republican? Hillary Clinton, the Democrat? Gary Johnson the Libertarian? or Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Donald Trump (R)	306	185	120	40	74	118	75	113	192	100	87	75	27	1	10	1	187	103	11	107	128	60	5	3	251	35	57	137	112	80	123	96	65	241	120	186
Hillary Clinton (D)	331	122	208	37	63	126	104	100	231	2	5	9	24	71	120	97	6	104	217	8	18	98	105	96	18	304	38	95	195	91	111	119	77	254	185	145
Gary Johnson (L)	67	32	35	12	26	19	9	38	28	4	14	17	19	5	3	2	18	41	5	4	19	29	10	2	25	29	7	13	46	12	28	25	32	35	35	31
Jill Stein (G)	39	21	18	11	13	9	6	24	15	0	0	3	13	12	8	4	0	28	11	0	6	6	10	17	4	33	7	20	13	15	17	7	13	26	19	21
Undecided	37	14	23	14	10	6	7	24	13	2	4	6	12	9	0	2	6	27	2	5	11	13	6	2	13	18	10	9	18	15	14	7	20	16	23	14
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

2	Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?

306 Trump Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
For Trump	193	110	83	16	50	80	48	65	127	72	51	44	16	1	4	0	123	61	4	71	80	34	2	3	167	18	36	85	72	46	86	56	38	154	75	118
Against Clinton	112	75	37	24	24	38	26	48	64	28	35	30	11	0	6	1	63	42	7	35	47	26	3	0	83	18	20	52	39	33	37	40	26	85	45	67
Not Sure	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1
Total	306	185	120	40	74	118	75	113	192	100	87	75	27	1	10	1	187	103	11	107	128	60	5	3	251	35	57	137	112	80	123	96	65	241	120	186
Composition of Trump Voters	100%	61%	39%	13%	24%	39%	24%	37%	63%	33%	29%	25%	9%	0%	3%	0%	61%	34%	4%	35%	42%	20%	2%	1%	82%	11%	19%	45%	37%	27%	41%	32%	21%	79%	39%	61%

3	Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

306 Trump Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Enthusiastically	225	138	86	26	53	91	55	78	146	81	61	55	18	0	6	1	142	73	7	88	90	38	3	2	194	22	48	96	80	60	92	68	37	188	92	133
With Reservations	79	46	33	14	20	27	19	34	45	19	25	20	9	1	4	0	44	30	4	19	37	20	1	1	56	14	8	40	31	18	32	29	27	52	28	51
Not Sure	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	2
Total	306	185	120	40	74	118	75	113	192	100	87	75	27	1	10	1	187	103	11	107	128	60	5	3	251	35	57	137	112	80	123	96	65	241	120	186
Composition of Trump Voters	100%	61%	39%	13%	24%	39%	24%	37%	63%	33%	29%	25%	9%	0%	3%	0%	61%	34%	4%	35%	42%	20%	2%	1%	82%	11%	19%	45%	37%	27%	41%	32%	21%	79%	39%	61%

4	Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?

331 Clinton Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
For Clinton	211	71	140	21	27	82	81	48	163	2	1	3	10	39	72	83	3	52	154	5	10	62	65	64	10	198	31	50	128	57	70	77	35	176	114	97
Against Trump	115	50	65	15	34	44	22	49	66	0	3	6	14	29	47	15	3	49	62	3	8	33	39	31	8	101	7	43	65	32	41	40	39	76	67	48
Not Sure	5	2	3	1	2	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	5	0	3	2	2	1	2	3	2	4	0
Total	331	122	208	37	63	126	104	100	231	2	5	9	24	71	120	97	6	104	217	8	18	98	105	96	18	304	38	95	195	91	111	119	77	254	185	145
Composition of Clinton Voters	100%	37%	63%	11%	19%	38%	32%	30%	70%	0%	1%	3%	7%	22%	36%	30%	2%	32%	66%	2%	5%	30%	32%	29%	5%	92%	12%	29%	59%	28%	35%	37%	23%	77%	56%	44%

5	Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

331 Clinton Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Enthusiastically	213	73	140	25	30	82	75	56	158	2	2	3	8	38	77	80	4	50	158	5	12	52	73	66	11	198	28	52	131	67	68	76	38	176	114	99
With Reservations	113	48	65	11	31	43	27	43	70	0	2	5	15	32	41	17	2	52	58	3	5	45	32	28	6	102	10	41	61	22	41	43	39	74	70	43
Not Sure	4	1	3	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	2	0	1	2	0	1	0	4	1	2	2	2	2	0	0	4	2	3
Total	331	122	208	37	63	126	104	100	231	2	5	9	24	71	120	97	6	104	217	8	18	98	105	96	18	304	38	95	195	91	111	119	77	254	185	145
Composition of Clinton Voters	100%	37%	63%	11%	19%	38%	32%	30%	70%	0%	1%	3%	7%	22%	36%	30%	2%	32%	66%	2%	5%	30%	32%	29%	5%	92%	12%	29%	59%	28%	35%	37%	23%	77%	56%	44%

6	If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Maine's 1st Congressional District were today, would you vote for Mark Holbrook, the Republican? Or Chellie Pingree, the Democrat?

382 Likely CD1 Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Holbrook (R)	140	84	56	16	42	43	39	58	82	38	39	41	13	0	8	0	77	54	8	43	59	33	4	1	112	19	18	51	70	24	52	63	39	101	140	0
Pingree (D)	217	85	132	42	53	62	60	95	122	0	2	8	28	53	65	57	2	89	122	5	12	56	68	69	21	188	16	59	140	44	71	96	73	144	217	0
Undecided	25	12	12	9	4	10	3	12	13	2	3	3	9	3	4	0	4	15	4	0	3	16	3	3	6	15	3	9	13	11	7	6	14	11	25	0
Total	382	182	200	66	99	115	102	165	217	40	45	52	50	57	76	57	84	158	133	48	73	105	75	73	139	222	37	119	223	80	130	165	126	255	382	0
Composition of Likely CD1 Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	26%	30%	27%	43%	57%	10%	12%	14%	13%	15%	20%	15%	22%	42%	35%	13%	19%	28%	20%	19%	36%	58%	10%	31%	59%	21%	35%	44%	33%	67%	100%	0%

7	If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Maine's 2nd Congressional District were today, would you vote for Bruce Poliquin, the Republican? Or Emily Cain, the Democrat?

397 Likely CD2 Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Poliquin (R)	197	114	83	27	53	78	38	80	117	66	57	40	22	2	7	2	123	64	9	66	78	45	3	2	149	30	48	83	66	64	75	53	38	159	0	197
Cain (D)	178	70	108	17	26	77	58	42	135	0	6	10	20	37	55	47	6	67	102	5	21	50	56	43	14	157	32	60	84	64	75	33	34	143	0	178
Undecided	22	9	13	4	8	7	3	12	10	2	3	8	3	3	3	0	4	13	3	4	9	5	1	1	9	10	1	12	9	6	12	3	7	15	0	22
Total	397	192	205	48	87	163	100	134	263	68	66	58	44	42	65	48	134	144	113	75	108	100	60	46	172	198	82	155	159	133	163	89	80	317	0	397
Composition of Likely CD2 Voters	100%	48%	52%	12%	22%	41%	25%	34%	66%	17%	17%	15%	11%	11%	16%	12%	34%	36%	29%	19%	27%	25%	15%	12%	43%	50%	21%	39%	40%	35%	42%	23%	20%	80%	0%	100%

8	This year there will also be an election for members of the Maine state legislature. As things stand today, do you anticipate voting for Democratic candidates? Or Republican candidates?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Democratic	338	137	202	46	71	113	108	117	222	0	2	7	26	81	114	103	3	114	217	7	22	84	109	109	17	314	38	98	201	91	123	114	83	255	195	143
Republican	300	169	132	42	79	110	69	121	179	106	100	67	14	0	9	2	206	81	11	108	117	62	7	4	249	36	52	123	123	72	116	105	67	234	122	179
Mix	108	55	53	23	27	42	17	49	59	1	5	29	46	16	10	0	6	91	10	7	33	43	17	5	37	51	22	39	46	37	41	29	46	62	49	59
Undecided	32	14	18	3	10	12	7	13	19	0	3	7	9	1	8	0	3	17	8	1	10	15	2	1	8	18	6	14	12	12	13	6	11	21	16	16
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

9	Now let's look ahead 2 years. We know it is early and a lot may change, but let's say that there was an election for the United States Senate, and the only 2 candidates on the ballot were Paul LePage, running as a Republican, and Angus King, running as an Independent. Who would you vote for?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
LePage (R)	290	178	112	45	73	108	64	118	172	97	83	64	25	2	10	1	180	92	11	104	123	55	3	2	271	8	55	126	107	70	111	102	64	226	118	172
King (I)	458	183	276	63	106	159	131	168	290	9	21	36	62	96	129	101	30	194	231	13	51	140	132	114	29	403	58	140	258	136	170	141	129	329	251	208
Undecided	31	13	17	7	7	11	7	13	17	2	6	10	7	1	2	3	8	17	5	7	7	10	0	4	11	9	5	8	17	7	12	11	13	17	13	17
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

10	In 2018 there will also be an election for governor. All things being equal, do you see yourself voting for the Republican candidate? The Democratic candidate? An independent candidate? Or, is it too early to know for sure?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Republican	186	119	68	22	50	74	40	72	114	91	62	27	4	0	1	0	153	31	1	82	67	29	4	0	166	12	34	78	73	39	66	76	48	138	76	111
Democratic	209	88	122	30	43	67	70	73	136	0	3	1	2	30	77	95	3	33	172	4	15	42	69	75	11	195	22	56	131	57	67	80	53	156	117	93
Independent	49	23	27	16	11	11	12	27	22	3	3	9	19	10	3	0	6	38	3	2	8	25	3	9	12	33	11	20	18	23	20	5	19	30	23	26
Too Early	328	144	184	45	79	124	81	124	204	14	41	72	69	56	60	10	55	196	70	35	90	105	56	35	121	177	52	120	157	94	136	92	80	248	160	168
Not Sure	6	1	5	2	2	2	0	4	2	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	2	0	1	5	1	4	1	6	0	6	0
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

11	Is your opinion of Barack Obama... extremely favorable? Favorable? Unfavorable? Or extremely unfavorable?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Extremely Favorable	220	74	146	38	35	74	72	74	146	2	4	2	15	45	71	79	6	63	150	8	13	52	66	76	17	201	29	58	132	66	75	75	58	162	125	95
Favorable	191	89	102	26	56	62	46	83	109	2	5	15	34	48	59	26	7	97	84	2	16	67	64	37	14	163	23	61	105	51	74	60	64	127	108	83
Unfavorable	92	51	41	16	20	36	20	36	56	7	25	23	22	4	6	1	32	49	7	9	39	34	3	4	52	29	10	37	44	23	39	30	26	65	38	53
Extremely Unfavorable	271	158	113	32	74	102	63	105	165	97	76	68	21	2	5	0	173	90	5	104	112	49	1	2	227	26	55	116	98	73	102	88	56	215	105	166
Not Sure	5	1	3	1	1	3	0	2	3	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	4	0	0	2	0	0	2	3	0	3	1	2	3	5	0
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

12	Is your opinion of Paul LePage ...

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Extremely Favorable	139	80	59	18	30	55	36	48	91	57	34	27	12	0	3	1	92	39	4	64	47	23	0	2	136	1	33	59	45	41	58	35	20	119	55	84
Favorable	172	109	62	31	51	54	36	81	90	39	55	47	12	3	11	2	94	62	13	45	85	32	2	5	151	10	26	71	75	37	64	68	58	114	78	93
Unfavorable	82	36	46	15	25	24	18	39	43	6	8	20	25	9	12	1	14	55	13	4	20	39	16	3	14	42	12	29	41	25	33	24	27	56	39	44
Extremely Unfavorable	372	141	232	50	79	137	107	129	244	3	10	14	42	84	115	101	13	139	216	7	23	108	117	109	8	361	45	110	216	108	131	124	102	271	203	169
Not Sure	13	7	6	0	2	7	4	2	11	3	3	2	3	2	0	1	5	7	1	3	5	3	0	1	3	5	2	6	6	3	7	3	1	13	7	7
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

13	Is your opinion of Angus King...

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Extremely Favorable	213	83	130	19	39	74	81	58	154	4	4	10	26	58	55	53	8	94	108	4	16	71	62	55	17	190	27	49	134	61	71	72	38	175	119	94
Favorable	268	110	158	45	71	96	56	116	151	18	34	26	35	33	70	46	52	93	117	19	61	72	60	53	67	186	35	99	134	68	112	85	102	166	139	128
Unfavorable	158	97	61	23	45	53	37	68	90	48	38	46	14	3	4	4	86	63	8	49	57	36	8	6	124	22	25	74	59	50	49	55	35	123	64	94
Extremely Unfavorable	92	60	32	8	23	43	18	31	60	29	28	16	10	2	5	0	57	28	5	42	31	15	1	0	84	4	24	28	38	13	40	36	14	78	34	58
Not Sure	49	24	24	18	8	12	11	26	22	8	6	12	9	3	7	2	14	25	9	9	16	11	3	6	19	19	8	24	17	22	21	6	18	30	25	23
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

14	Is your opinion of Susan Collins...

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Extremely Favorable	169	78	91	19	36	54	60	55	114	13	26	26	25	23	37	14	38	74	51	14	44	51	32	19	55	103	23	55	86	44	68	50	30	139	85	83
Favorable	338	140	198	46	95	118	79	141	197	38	51	41	41	51	70	43	90	132	113	42	76	98	73	46	121	191	54	107	177	90	108	132	114	224	174	164
Unfavorable	174	101	73	26	38	65	45	64	110	33	22	30	20	13	22	33	55	63	55	44	37	40	21	29	90	78	27	63	84	44	70	57	34	141	74	100
Extremely Unfavorable	57	37	20	8	8	30	11	16	41	19	7	9	5	5	5	6	26	20	11	18	17	9	2	11	35	20	7	30	20	16	30	10	9	48	24	34
Not Sure	41	18	23	15	9	11	6	24	17	5	4	3	4	6	8	9	9	13	17	5	8	7	7	15	9	27	7	20	14	18	17	5	20	21	25	16
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

15	In general, is Maine headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Right Direction	298	177	121	52	88	99	60	139	159	77	72	58	32	14	29	12	149	104	41	91	99	57	29	20	231	52	52	115	129	74	113	105	81	217	130	169
Wrong Track	362	155	206	50	73	142	96	123	238	23	19	34	45	70	90	75	43	149	165	22	50	118	80	79	46	297	49	117	193	102	142	109	100	262	187	174
Not Sure	119	41	78	12	25	37	45	37	82	7	19	18	18	14	22	19	26	50	40	10	32	30	26	20	34	71	17	42	60	37	39	40	26	93	65	54
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

16	Recently, a portion of Maine's North Woods was designated as a national monument. Do you agree with this move? Or disagree?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Agree	459	200	259	79	103	150	127	182	277	27	35	37	58	85	115	98	62	181	213	25	73	128	113	109	87	348	53	145	260	128	170	150	136	322	264	195
Disagree	235	136	99	22	57	98	58	79	156	68	57	55	27	7	14	2	125	89	16	86	76	54	11	4	182	40	49	94	90	64	94	70	37	198	73	162
Not Sure	85	38	47	12	26	29	17	39	46	14	18	18	9	6	13	5	31	33	18	11	32	23	11	6	42	32	16	36	32	21	30	34	33	52	44	40
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

17	During Paul LePage's time as Governor, has the level of civility in Maine politics gotten ... much better? Better? Stayed the same? Gotten worse? Or gotten much worse?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Gotten Much Better	45	32	13	10	13	14	8	23	22	19	6	7	6	0	5	0	26	13	5	20	18	5	0	1	43	2	11	15	17	9	18	16	12	33	26	19
Gotten Better	76	48	28	14	12	30	19	26	49	23	24	15	4	0	7	2	47	20	9	27	32	8	3	4	66	6	22	31	23	20	40	16	17	59	36	40
Stayed The Same	149	77	72	24	42	45	38	66	84	35	38	38	19	4	11	1	74	61	12	45	57	40	2	3	120	14	22	60	67	40	51	57	34	115	56	93
Gotten Worse	163	76	86	23	43	58	39	66	97	23	24	31	16	19	33	11	48	66	45	22	44	46	30	17	62	77	31	55	76	43	65	48	51	112	73	90
Gotten Much Worse	333	135	197	40	73	124	95	113	219	4	11	15	48	75	85	92	16	139	177	7	24	100	100	94	10	320	29	106	197	96	115	115	88	245	187	146
Not Sure	13	6	8	2	3	6	2	5	8	2	6	3	2	0	0	0	8	5	0	3	5	5	0	0	10	1	4	8	2	5	5	3	4	9	4	10
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

18	Do you have ... confidence? ... or No confidence? ... in Paul LePage's ability to govern?

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Confidence	311	182	129	46	84	113	68	129	182	95	91	73	30	3	13	2	186	105	14	106	128	64	4	6	311	0	55	130	124	71	120	111	72	239	139	172
No Confidence	420	165	255	56	92	152	120	148	272	7	16	26	50	93	119	104	24	169	223	10	35	129	122	112	0	420	55	128	235	129	153	128	117	303	222	198
Not Sure	48	28	20	13	10	12	13	23	25	6	3	11	15	3	9	0	8	29	9	7	19	12	8	1	0	0	8	17	23	13	20	15	17	30	20	27
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%

19	Which of these statements best reflects your view? I like elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with....or...I like politicians who stick to their principles.

779 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Lepage		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Cong. District
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Confiden	No Confi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	1st	2nd
Make Compromises	429	182	247	62	88	150	129	150	279	13	34	40	54	73	116	90	47	168	206	20	64	129	118	87	76	331	51	127	247	98	164	156	106	323	234	195
Stick To Their Principles	305	171	134	44	85	114	61	129	176	89	69	64	34	17	17	12	158	115	29	96	102	66	14	24	219	65	62	131	112	95	117	86	90	215	124	181
Not Sure	45	21	24	7	13	13	11	21	24	5	7	6	6	8	8	4	12	20	12	7	14	10	4	8	16	24	4	16	24	20	12	13	10	34	24	21
Total	779	374	405	114	186	278	202	300	479	108	110	110	94	98	141	105	218	303	246	123	181	205	135	119	311	420	118	275	382	213	293	254	206	572	382	397
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	24%	36%	26%	38%	62%	14%	14%	14%	12%	13%	18%	14%	28%	39%	32%	16%	23%	26%	17%	15%	40%	54%	15%	35%	49%	28%	39%	33%	27%	73%	49%	51%