Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20847
 
In San Diego Mayoral Special Election, Faulconer Zooms Ahead of Fletcher; Faulconer Would Now Defeat Fletcher If There is a Runoff:

Backed by 69% of Republicans, 65% of conservatives and 47% of seniors, Kevin Faulconer turns the mayor's race upside down in San Diego, leaping today ahead of former-front-runner Nathan Fletcher, 41% to 28%.

6 weeks ago, when SurveyUSA first polled the contest for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News, Fletcher led by 8 points. 3 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Fletcher leading by 4. Today, Fletcher trails by 13, a 17-point poll-on-poll swing to Faulconer. Over the past 6 weeks: Faulconer's support has doubled among women, moderates and Independents. His support among Hispanics has nearly tripled. Among the wealthiest voters, Faulconer had trailed Fletcher by 8, now leads by 11, a 19-point swing. Among voters who are keen to elect a fiscally responsible mayor, Faulconer now leads Fletcher 4:1. Faulconer also benefits from early voting, where he has already "banked" 48% of the ballots returned: among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Faulconer leads by 19 points.

David Alvarez gets 17% of votes today, Mike Aguirre gets 7%, and another 7% are voting for some other candidate, or are undecided. If support for these 2nd-tier candidates collapses as Election Day nears, if Fletcher cannot find new traction, and if Faulconer's trajectory continues, it is conceivable that Faulconer could reach the 50% + 1 vote that is needed to avoid a runoff. Still, a runoff is likely.

In a runoff today between Fletcher and Faulconer, Faulconer defeats Fletcher 46% to 41%. 6 weeks ago, Fletcher had led by 14 points, now trails by 5, a swing of 19 points towards Faulconer. In the head-to-head match-up, Faulconer's entire margin of victory comes from men, where Faulconer leads by 9. Among women, the 2 candidates are effective even, though once, Fletcher led women by 19.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults 10/28/13 through 10/31/13. Of the adults, 600 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 550 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Voters reachable on a landline telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their landline phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Voters not reachable on a landline telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If the special election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Nathan Fletcher28%28%29%33%29%27%22%31%25%31%27%27%22%32%28%13%42%27%15%33%37%29%27%29%24%24%31%24%30%31%24%34%16%53%
Mike Aguirre7%6%7%7%8%6%6%7%6%5%14%8%9%7%7%7%6%8%9%3%11%7%8%6%12%8%6%10%8%5%8%5%13%3%
Kevin Faulconer41%42%40%36%40%41%47%38%44%45%26%34%42%33%42%69%18%39%65%38%15%48%39%38%39%44%39%32%41%42%45%35%57%19%
David Alvarez17%16%18%17%14%20%19%15%20%16%17%27%11%16%17%6%29%15%6%17%33%15%18%18%22%15%18%21%16%17%17%19%9%18%
Other3%3%2%3%2%2%3%3%2%2%11%0%4%2%3%2%1%6%2%3%1%0%4%3%0%5%2%4%3%2%3%1%1%5%
Undecided4%4%4%4%6%3%3%5%3%2%4%4%11%10%3%3%4%6%2%6%2%1%4%6%2%5%4%8%3%3%3%6%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
If no one candidate wins a majority of the votes in the November election, there will be a runoff election between the top two finishers. In the runoff election, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Nathan Fletcher and Mike Aguirre, who would you vote for?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher54%52%55%53%58%55%46%55%51%59%38%49%48%67%51%44%60%57%40%60%59%50%55%55%46%47%58%41%58%59%49%66%41%71%
Aguirre27%29%25%29%25%24%31%27%27%22%43%37%26%23%28%30%28%21%34%23%26%26%29%26%36%31%24%35%25%24%28%22%37%12%
Undecided19%19%20%18%18%21%23%18%22%19%19%14%26%10%21%26%12%22%26%16%15%24%16%19%18%22%18%24%17%17%23%12%23%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
What if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and Kevin Faulconer?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher41%39%43%46%42%40%35%44%38%42%42%45%35%53%39%23%58%40%22%47%55%36%44%42%38%34%46%39%47%42%37%50%25%62%
Faulconer46%48%44%42%48%44%52%45%48%48%35%44%49%40%47%68%29%43%66%43%27%53%43%45%51%54%41%44%44%46%51%40%61%22%
Undecided12%13%12%12%11%15%12%11%14%11%23%11%16%7%13%9%13%18%12%10%17%11%13%13%11%12%13%17%10%12%12%10%14%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and David Alvarez?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher51%50%52%59%53%46%42%56%44%54%38%44%55%74%47%47%52%56%48%55%50%51%52%50%41%46%55%46%54%54%45%61%45%60%
Alvarez31%31%32%29%30%33%36%29%34%29%37%45%21%19%33%22%43%25%21%31%44%30%32%32%41%33%29%35%30%31%35%29%27%30%
Undecided18%19%16%12%17%21%22%15%21%17%25%10%25%6%20%31%5%19%31%14%6%19%16%18%18%21%16%19%16%15%20%11%27%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
OK, what if the only two candidates in the runoff were Mike Aguirre and Kevin Faulconer?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Aguirre25%27%23%32%22%24%21%27%23%22%37%30%23%30%24%17%33%25%22%23%34%19%28%26%24%22%26%26%30%21%24%24%25%32%
Faulconer59%58%59%52%59%61%64%56%62%62%39%59%54%54%59%74%44%59%69%62%38%68%56%55%60%61%57%52%57%62%62%61%62%48%
Undecided16%15%18%16%19%15%15%18%15%15%24%12%23%16%17%9%23%16%10%14%28%13%16%19%16%17%17%22%13%17%15%15%13%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Mike Aguirre and David Alvarez?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Aguirre31%35%28%35%34%27%27%34%27%28%40%35%34%39%30%36%30%27%38%32%23%30%35%29%35%37%28%35%39%24%37%22%43%22%
Alvarez43%41%44%36%41%48%48%39%48%44%31%53%29%40%43%27%54%45%25%44%62%45%41%42%40%35%47%36%39%50%38%55%27%50%
Undecided26%24%28%30%25%24%25%27%25%28%29%12%37%22%27%36%16%28%37%24%15%25%24%29%25%28%25%29%22%25%25%23%31%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
And what if it were Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Faulconer52%52%52%46%56%52%55%51%54%56%38%41%57%43%54%74%32%56%76%49%28%61%53%46%58%50%52%45%53%53%57%46%67%36%
Alvarez36%35%36%42%30%34%35%36%35%32%42%55%21%42%34%19%53%28%14%39%57%33%33%39%33%35%37%35%40%35%33%42%20%52%
Undecided12%12%12%12%14%13%9%13%11%11%20%4%22%15%12%6%15%16%10%11%15%6%13%15%9%15%12%20%8%12%9%12%13%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%
 
 
Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
550 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Integrity33%31%36%34%23%39%42%28%40%32%30%32%39%26%34%39%30%30%32%35%32%32%37%31%37%38%31%32%37%31%100%0%0%0%
Leadership24%24%23%29%20%21%23%25%22%24%29%20%24%36%21%19%29%20%19%25%27%26%23%23%21%21%25%22%25%24%0%100%0%0%
Stability4%5%3%7%4%2%2%6%2%4%3%7%2%6%4%2%3%6%4%4%5%3%5%4%8%4%4%5%5%3%0%0%0%0%
Business Experience4%5%2%5%3%2%3%4%3%5%0%3%2%7%3%5%1%7%4%4%1%5%3%3%2%1%5%0%3%5%0%0%0%0%
Fiscal Responsibility19%20%17%10%33%18%11%22%14%18%20%21%17%14%19%24%13%20%30%16%10%18%12%23%10%13%22%16%13%23%0%0%100%0%
Reach Across Party Lines11%9%13%8%11%13%13%10%13%12%8%9%12%8%11%4%16%13%3%11%18%11%15%8%11%14%9%11%12%10%0%0%0%100%
Something Else5%6%4%7%4%4%3%6%4%4%9%6%4%2%5%6%5%2%6%4%5%4%4%6%7%6%4%10%3%3%0%0%0%0%
Not Sure2%0%3%0%2%2%3%1%2%1%2%2%2%0%2%1%1%3%1%1%2%1%2%1%4%2%1%3%1%1%0%0%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%28%30%23%19%58%42%57%7%19%17%15%85%36%42%22%28%47%23%25%31%44%9%28%64%21%34%45%33%24%19%11%