Backed by 69% of Republicans, 65% of conservatives and 47% of seniors, Kevin Faulconer turns the mayor's race upside down in San Diego, leaping today ahead of former-front-runner Nathan Fletcher, 41% to 28%.

6 weeks ago, when SurveyUSA first polled the contest for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News, Fletcher led by 8 points. 3 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Fletcher leading by 4. Today, Fletcher trails by 13, a 17-point poll-on-poll swing to Faulconer. Over the past 6 weeks: Faulconer's support has doubled among women, moderates and Independents. His support among Hispanics has nearly tripled. Among the wealthiest voters, Faulconer had trailed Fletcher by 8, now leads by 11, a 19-point swing. Among voters who are keen to elect a fiscally responsible mayor, Faulconer now leads Fletcher 4:1. Faulconer also benefits from early voting, where he has already "banked" 48% of the ballots returned: among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Faulconer leads by 19 points.

David Alvarez gets 17% of votes today, Mike Aguirre gets 7%, and another 7% are voting for some other candidate, or are undecided. If support for these 2nd-tier candidates collapses as Election Day nears, if Fletcher cannot find new traction, and if Faulconer's trajectory continues, it is conceivable that Faulconer could reach the 50% + 1 vote that is needed to avoid a runoff. Still, a runoff is likely.

In a runoff today between Fletcher and Faulconer, Faulconer defeats Fletcher 46% to 41%. 6 weeks ago, Fletcher had led by 14 points, now trails by 5, a swing of 19 points towards Faulconer. In the head-to-head match-up, Faulconer's entire margin of victory comes from men, where Faulconer leads by 9. Among women, the 2 candidates are effective even, though once, Fletcher led women by 19.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults 10/28/13 through 10/31/13. Of the adults, 600 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 550 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Voters reachable on a landline telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their landline phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Voters not reachable on a landline telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.