| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14761 |
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Outcome of California Proposition 4, on Abortion, and Proposition 8, on Marriage, Still in Doubt:
81% of John McCain backers vote 'Yes' on CA Proposition 8, to redefine marriage. The more votes John McCain gets in CA, the better 'Yes' on 8 will do. 71% of Barack Obama backers vote 'No' on Proposition 8, to leave the definition of marriage unchanged. But white Obama backers and black Obama backers vote differently on 8, so it is an oversimplification to say, "the more votes Obama gets, the better 'No' on 8 will do." The Bay Area is 2:1 against 8. Greater Los Angeles is 5:4 against 8. The Inland Empire and the Central Valley are 3:2 in favor of 8. The tightness of the contest is illustrated by SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graph on voters age 35 to 49.
Proposition 4 is volatile, 72 hours till votes are counted. 65% of McCain voters vote 'Yes' on 4, to require a pregnant teen to notify a parent before an abortion. 61% of Obama voters vote 'No' on 4. Interplay: of those who vote Yes on 4, 75% vote Yes on 8. Of those who vote No on 4, 75% vote No on 8. Over the past month, as documented in two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, opposition to 4 has grown. Study the interactive tracking graphs to see what has happened among Democrats, where opposition to 'No' has grown 21 points in a month, among women, where opposition has grown 17 points in a month, and among Moderates, where Yes once led by 12, now trails by 18. The visibility of the Propositions, and the foregone conclusion that Obama will carry California, creates a dynamic where a number of voters in California are focused only on the Propositions, and their vote in the presidential contest is more of an "oh, by the way." In such cases, it is best for pollsters to be circumspect, safest to watch and learn. Partisans should not marshal this data as evidence of anything other than: every vote will be critical; Proposition 4 and Proposition 8 could go either way. Filtering: 800 state of CA adults were interviewed 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 719 were registered to vote. Of them, 637 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or, to be likely to vote on or before election day. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 637 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | POTUS Vote | Prop 4 Vote | Prop 8 Vote | Prop 11 Vote | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | McCain | Obama | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| McCain (R) | 36% | 38% | 35% | 27% | 38% | 38% | 44% | 33% | 41% | 32% | 45% | 40% | 45% | 16% | 20% | 34% | 75% | 10% | 37% | 78% | 28% | 6% | 38% | 35% | 100% | 0% | 60% | 16% | 63% | 13% | 48% | 34% | 35% | 37% | 49% | 37% | 23% | 64% | 19% | 44% | 31% | 28% | 39% | 50% | 31% | 42% | 28% |
| Obama (D) | 60% | 59% | 61% | 72% | 58% | 57% | 51% | 64% | 55% | 66% | 49% | 56% | 51% | 81% | 75% | 63% | 22% | 88% | 53% | 20% | 68% | 91% | 57% | 62% | 0% | 100% | 39% | 80% | 33% | 84% | 48% | 63% | 62% | 59% | 47% | 61% | 74% | 30% | 79% | 52% | 67% | 64% | 60% | 47% | 65% | 53% | 69% |
| Other | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 48% | 10% | 43% | 60% | 7% | 22% | 12% | 34% | 50% | 15% | 27% | 43% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 36% | 60% | 40% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 37% | 61% | 30% | 66% | 32% | 68% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 22% |
 | Proposition 4 amends the California constitution so that a minor who wishes to have an abortion must wait at least 48 hours after a physician has notified the girl's parent. On Proposition 4, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 637 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | POTUS Vote | Prop 4 Vote | Prop 8 Vote | Prop 11 Vote | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | McCain | Obama | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes | 40% | 44% | 36% | 33% | 41% | 42% | 44% | 37% | 43% | 37% | 49% | 42% | 41% | 46% | 38% | 38% | 61% | 28% | 35% | 70% | 34% | 20% | 43% | 38% | 65% | 26% | 100% | 0% | 64% | 18% | 50% | 36% | 37% | 44% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 69% | 22% | 34% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 45% | 39% | 45% | 33% |
| No | 46% | 40% | 52% | 53% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 42% | 46% | 49% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 27% | 59% | 47% | 18% | 52% | 68% | 51% | 42% | 20% | 61% | 0% | 100% | 23% | 69% | 44% | 58% | 52% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 64% | 15% | 66% | 53% | 43% | 41% | 48% | 40% | 43% | 41% | 60% |
| Not Certain | 14% | 16% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 16% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 18% | 25% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 19% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 48% | 10% | 43% | 60% | 7% | 22% | 12% | 34% | 50% | 15% | 27% | 43% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 36% | 60% | 40% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 37% | 61% | 30% | 66% | 32% | 68% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 22% |
 | Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 637 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | POTUS Vote | Prop 4 Vote | Prop 8 Vote | Prop 11 Vote | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | McCain | Obama | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes | 47% | 47% | 47% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 42% | 52% | 40% | 56% | 52% | 47% | 45% | 50% | 39% | 74% | 31% | 37% | 81% | 40% | 22% | 48% | 46% | 81% | 26% | 75% | 23% | 100% | 0% | 52% | 46% | 42% | 53% | 71% | 47% | 23% | 78% | 29% | 46% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 58% | 44% | 58% | 33% |
| No | 50% | 50% | 50% | 63% | 48% | 47% | 41% | 55% | 44% | 57% | 42% | 44% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 59% | 25% | 65% | 57% | 18% | 58% | 74% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 71% | 22% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 47% | 53% | 56% | 42% | 27% | 50% | 73% | 18% | 69% | 51% | 51% | 44% | 52% | 40% | 54% | 37% | 63% |
| Not Certain | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 48% | 10% | 43% | 60% | 7% | 22% | 12% | 34% | 50% | 15% | 27% | 43% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 36% | 60% | 40% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 37% | 61% | 30% | 66% | 32% | 68% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 22% |
 | Proposition 11 is about "Redistricting." It creates a 14-member commission to draw new boundaries for State Senate, Assembly and Board of Equalization districts.. On Proposition 11, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 637 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | POTUS Vote | Prop 4 Vote | Prop 8 Vote | Prop 11 Vote | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | McCain | Obama | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Yes | 36% | 43% | 30% | 30% | 31% | 40% | 46% | 30% | 43% | 30% | 49% | 40% | 43% | 25% | 28% | 23% | 49% | 26% | 40% | 45% | 31% | 32% | 45% | 29% | 48% | 29% | 45% | 35% | 40% | 34% | 100% | 0% | 40% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 35% | 42% | 32% | 40% | 34% | 34% | 36% | 44% | 29% | 38% | 39% |
| No | 29% | 28% | 30% | 24% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 28% | 31% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 30% | 41% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 34% | 24% | 26% | 33% | 28% | 38% | 22% | 27% | 31% | 26% | 37% | 29% | 31% | 0% | 100% | 27% | 32% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 30% | 29% | 34% |
| Not Certain | 35% | 29% | 40% | 46% | 39% | 30% | 22% | 42% | 26% | 43% | 20% | 29% | 27% | 34% | 48% | 51% | 26% | 40% | 36% | 29% | 35% | 40% | 16% | 48% | 25% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 32% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 36% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 33% | 41% | 33% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 48% | 10% | 43% | 60% | 7% | 22% | 12% | 34% | 50% | 15% | 27% | 43% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 36% | 60% | 40% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 37% | 61% | 30% | 66% | 32% | 68% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 22% |