Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17190
 
10 Days Until WA Ballots Mailed, New Support for Initiative 1107, Steady Support for 1053, Faltering Support for Referendum 52:

One month till votes in Washington state are counted, there is growing opposition to Initiative 1098 and growing support for Initiative 1107, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive poll for KING 5-TV in Seattle.

Initiative 1107, which would end sales taxes on candy, end temporary taxes on bottled water and carbonated drinks, and reduce tax rates for certain companies that make food products, has dramatic new across-the-board backing, and leads today 52% to 29%. Compared to SurveyUSA polling 5 weeks ago, the following realignment has occurred: Moderates, a 24-point shift to Yes; Metro Seattle, a 22-point shift to Yes; Men and Seniors, a 21-point shift to Yes; Republicans and Middle-Income voters, a 17 point shift to Yes.

Initiative 1098, which would create a state income tax, faces growing opposition and is a jump ball today, 41% in favor, 39% opposed, with 20% of likely voters not yet certain how they will vote on 1098. Women had supported the measure 2:1, now 4:3. Wealthy voters had opposed the measure by 5 points, now by 16 points. The initiative is above 50% only among Democrats and Liberals.

Referendum 52, which would authorize bonds and continue a sales tax on bottled water to pay for projects to increase energy efficiency in public schools, has less support today than it did 5 weeks ago, and trails today 3:2, with 1 in 4 likely voters still not certain how they will vote on 52. Support for the measure is down among both men and women, among both the educated and less educated, among lower and middle-income voters, in Eastern WA and in Metro Seattle.

I-1053, which re-states the existing laws requiring two-thirds majority votes in the legislature or voter approval to increase taxes, passes today 3:1 with broad support in every region of the state. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, there is no movement, voter sentiment is stable.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington State adults 09/30/10 through 10/03/10. Of them, 860 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 639 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the November general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters next week, on 10/15/10.

 
Also on the ballot are several initiatives. On initiative 1098, which would create a state income tax on individual filers earning more than $200,000 and on couples earning more than $400,000, as well as reduce state property taxes, reduce certain business and occupation taxes, and direct any increased revenues to education and health, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
639 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes41%40%41%44%42%39%39%43%39%41%****42%24%62%35%17%47%66%19%61%34%48%41%41%39%46%39%23%51%33%51%47%44%35%44%33%42%
Certain No39%46%32%32%41%43%36%38%40%39%****46%55%16%49%68%31%15%66%18%40%30%40%38%41%33%41%58%28%48%27%22%37%51%37%46%37%
Not Certain20%14%26%24%17%19%25%19%21%21%****12%21%22%16%15%22%19%15%21%26%21%19%21%20%21%20%18%22%20%22%30%20%14%18%21%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%31%30%22%48%52%88%2%2%7%32%35%31%31%43%20%32%37%21%9%53%47%39%26%35%36%60%50%44%22%39%39%28%21%52%
 
 
On Initiative 1107, which would end sales taxes on candy, end temporary taxes on bottled water & carbonated drinks, and reduce tax rates for certain companies that make food products, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
639 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes52%57%48%57%50%53%50%52%52%53%****48%65%41%51%67%49%34%70%33%59%52%44%60%54%54%48%65%46%55%50%61%52%47%50%58%50%
Certain No29%32%26%24%36%28%24%32%26%28%****25%19%38%29%19%32%44%19%43%21%23%36%21%29%26%32%21%33%26%30%17%29%37%35%25%27%
Not Certain19%12%26%19%15%19%26%16%22%19%****27%16%21%19%14%19%23%11%24%20%25%20%18%17%20%20%14%21%19%20%22%19%17%14%17%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%31%30%22%48%52%88%2%2%7%32%35%31%31%43%20%32%37%21%9%53%47%39%26%35%36%60%50%44%22%39%39%28%21%52%
 
 
On Initiative 1053, which re-states the existing laws requiring two-thirds majority votes in the legislature or voter approval to increase taxes, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
639 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes56%64%48%47%60%62%48%55%56%56%****44%68%39%63%73%53%35%77%37%58%57%53%59%58%57%54%68%49%64%46%54%52%61%57%58%54%
Certain No19%20%19%21%19%18%20%20%19%19%****32%12%34%11%10%19%38%10%35%13%8%22%17%19%23%18%11%24%13%28%21%21%18%17%13%23%
Not Certain25%17%33%32%21%20%31%25%25%25%****24%21%27%26%18%28%28%14%28%29%35%24%25%24%21%28%21%27%22%26%25%27%22%25%29%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%31%30%22%48%52%88%2%2%7%32%35%31%31%43%20%32%37%21%9%53%47%39%26%35%36%60%50%44%22%39%39%28%21%52%
 
 
On Referendum 52, which would authorize bonds and continue a sales tax on bottled water to pay for projects to increase energy efficiency in public schools, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
639 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes28%28%28%32%27%26%30%28%28%28%****23%16%44%24%12%34%44%11%46%20%34%31%24%23%30%32%18%33%24%33%24%29%30%37%22%26%
Certain No45%54%36%42%48%48%39%46%44%44%****49%65%24%48%70%38%23%71%22%51%32%42%48%51%40%42%61%36%52%37%43%43%49%37%54%45%
Not Certain27%18%36%27%26%26%31%26%28%28%****29%19%33%28%18%28%33%18%32%29%34%27%28%26%30%26%21%31%24%30%33%29%21%26%24%29%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%31%30%22%48%52%88%2%2%7%32%35%31%31%43%20%32%37%21%9%53%47%39%26%35%36%60%50%44%22%39%39%28%21%52%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.