Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20895
 
If There Is a Runoff Needed in San Diego Mayor Special Election, Will Fletcher or Alvarez Be the One to Face Faulconer?

San Diego's Latino voters may play a key role in determining whether David Alvarez or Nathan Fletcher advance to a runoff election against the almost certain winner of Tuesday's special election, Kevin Faulconer, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KGTV-TV 10 News and the Union Tribune newspaper. Either Fletcher, who today is at 24%, or Alvarez, who today is at 22%, could be the candidate to face Faulconer, who today is at 40%, short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted 2 weeks ago, Fletcher is down, Alvarez is up, and Faulconer is flat. In the battle for 2nd place, Fletcher had led Alvarez by 11 points 2 weeks ago; today Fletcher leads Alvarez by 2.

Latinos today divide this way: 34%, a plurality, vote for Alvarez. 31% vote for Faulconer. 27% vote for Fletcher. A larger than expected Latino turnout favors Alvarez. A smaller than anticipated Latino turnout favors Fletcher. Whites and Asians both favor Faulconer. Among white voters, Fletcher's lead over Alvarez has gone from 15 points 2 weeks ago to 3 points today. Among the youngest voters, the contest is effectively a 3-way tie. Among the oldest (and most reliable) voters, Fletcher leads Alvarez by 10, but trails Faulconer by 23.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults 11/11/13 through 11/14/13. Of the adults, 577 are registered to vote. Of the registered, 510 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before Tuesday's 11/19/13 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on home telephone (86% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (14%) of likely voters, were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic

 
If the special election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Nathan Fletcher24%22%25%27%21%22%25%24%23%24%20%27%19%26%23%14%33%21%11%28%30%24%22%23%20%18%27%17%28%24%20%31%8%41%
Mike Aguirre7%8%6%12%5%5%7%8%6%8%12%6%6%12%7%7%8%7%9%8%4%8%3%9%2%11%6%8%6%8%8%6%9%5%
Kevin Faulconer40%44%36%29%40%44%48%35%46%41%26%31%53%27%42%64%18%42%66%37%20%50%37%34%47%41%39%38%34%43%43%29%65%27%
David Alvarez22%21%24%26%26%19%15%26%17%21%23%34%10%29%21%9%35%19%10%21%38%16%27%25%20%22%22%21%25%21%21%31%10%20%
Other4%3%5%3%4%6%2%4%4%2%15%1%9%0%4%3%4%4%3%2%5%1%9%4%8%3%4%9%3%2%4%2%4%3%
Undecided3%2%4%3%3%3%4%3%4%4%3%2%3%6%3%2%2%7%2%3%3%1%3%5%4%5%2%6%3%2%4%1%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
If no one candidate wins a majority of the votes in the November election, there will be a runoff election between the top two finishers. In the runoff election, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Nathan Fletcher and Mike Aguirre, who would you vote for?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher46%49%44%52%47%46%40%49%43%51%54%41%34%57%45%39%56%42%30%58%47%49%46%45%33%42%50%41%50%49%47%53%35%62%
Aguirre30%31%29%33%32%27%28%32%27%27%19%41%32%31%30%32%28%30%34%26%32%28%35%30%38%33%28%37%30%27%29%27%36%20%
Undecided24%19%28%16%21%27%32%19%29%23%26%18%34%12%25%29%17%28%35%15%21%24%19%25%29%25%22%22%20%24%24%20%28%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
What if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and Kevin Faulconer?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher38%40%37%43%40%34%35%41%35%39%41%44%26%50%36%22%55%34%16%48%49%33%38%42%21%34%43%34%44%39%32%46%26%58%
Faulconer47%50%45%43%46%50%52%44%51%50%30%40%56%39%49%71%25%50%75%41%30%58%46%40%58%51%45%50%41%49%54%38%70%32%
Undecided14%10%18%15%14%16%12%15%14%11%30%15%18%11%15%7%20%16%9%11%21%9%15%18%21%16%13%16%15%13%14%16%4%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Nathan Fletcher and David Alvarez?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Fletcher42%46%38%43%37%45%42%40%44%48%51%28%34%48%41%39%44%42%33%52%36%49%45%35%34%38%45%38%46%43%42%44%37%54%
Alvarez38%37%40%43%45%32%31%44%32%33%36%61%29%38%38%32%47%33%31%35%53%28%41%45%36%39%37%39%35%39%38%46%29%29%
Undecided20%18%22%13%18%23%27%16%25%19%13%11%37%15%21%29%9%25%36%13%11%23%14%20%30%23%18%23%19%18%20%10%34%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
OK, what if the only two candidates in the runoff were Mike Aguirre and Kevin Faulconer?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Aguirre28%27%30%40%28%21%24%34%22%27%30%32%29%37%27%18%40%23%17%30%39%23%35%30%22%30%28%37%30%26%26%29%17%36%
Faulconer55%60%50%45%54%61%61%50%61%60%32%47%55%48%56%73%36%63%75%55%35%67%44%50%60%55%55%44%53%60%58%53%72%43%
Undecided16%14%19%14%18%18%15%16%17%13%39%20%16%15%17%9%25%14%8%15%25%10%21%20%17%15%17%19%17%14%15%17%11%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
OK, what if the only candidates were Mike Aguirre and David Alvarez?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Aguirre29%36%22%38%26%27%27%31%27%28%38%27%33%47%26%36%22%32%34%33%18%28%39%26%25%28%30%33%30%26%31%27%33%27%
Alvarez46%42%50%45%51%43%42%48%43%45%49%60%28%40%47%30%64%37%28%48%65%40%43%51%37%44%47%43%46%47%43%56%34%54%
Undecided25%22%28%17%23%30%31%20%31%27%13%13%38%13%27%34%14%31%38%18%17%32%18%23%38%28%22%24%23%27%26%17%33%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
And what if it were Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Faulconer51%57%45%45%46%56%61%46%58%58%35%35%55%35%54%77%27%57%77%50%26%59%48%46%64%53%50%50%47%53%58%38%74%50%
Alvarez38%34%42%41%45%33%30%43%32%34%42%56%30%51%36%18%60%29%15%39%64%31%42%42%21%36%40%36%40%39%35%49%21%35%
Undecided11%8%13%14%9%11%9%11%10%8%23%9%15%14%10%6%13%14%7%12%9%10%10%11%15%12%10%14%12%8%7%13%5%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%
 
 
Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
510 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyVotedEducationIncomeMost Important
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalAlready Likely ELikely DHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KIntegritLeadershFiscal RReach Ac
Integrity33%31%36%34%32%32%36%33%34%34%41%28%35%35%33%37%31%32%50%24%31%36%37%30%42%35%31%33%34%33%100%0%0%0%
Leadership23%24%22%24%22%23%23%23%23%21%23%23%31%36%21%20%31%14%11%26%29%17%31%24%23%23%23%26%25%20%0%100%0%0%
Stability4%5%4%6%6%1%2%6%2%2%0%12%3%5%4%5%3%6%1%5%6%5%4%4%4%4%4%5%1%6%0%0%0%0%
Business Experience5%4%5%8%3%4%4%5%4%7%0%1%2%7%5%8%2%5%12%3%1%7%6%3%0%5%5%6%3%6%0%0%0%0%
Fiscal Responsibility16%18%14%10%17%23%12%14%18%18%14%13%12%11%17%19%11%20%17%20%10%17%8%18%4%11%19%14%19%15%0%0%100%0%
Reach Across Party Lines12%13%12%14%11%10%17%12%13%11%16%18%7%5%14%7%18%12%4%17%16%14%11%12%19%15%10%13%12%12%0%0%0%100%
Something Else4%5%3%2%7%3%3%5%3%4%6%3%5%1%5%2%4%8%2%5%4%3%1%6%1%4%4%4%3%5%0%0%0%0%
Not Sure2%1%4%1%1%4%3%1%4%2%0%2%4%0%3%3%1%3%2%2%3%2%2%3%7%2%2%1%3%2%0%0%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%20%54%46%58%6%20%15%14%86%36%42%22%28%43%24%36%18%46%6%32%63%22%33%45%33%23%16%12%