| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17463 |
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In Ohio, Attorney General Could Go Either Way, Governor is Likely GOP Take-Away, Senate is GOP Hold:
6 days till votes are counted in Ohio, Republican challenger John Kasich appears positioned to take the Ohio statehouse away from incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. At this hour: Kasich 49%, Strickland 44%. But: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Strickland has a narrow advantage. Kasich will need to outperform Strickland among voters who have not yet returned a ballot.
Kasich leads in greater Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus. Strickland leads in greater Toledo. The contest is even in greater Cleveland. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Moderates break 3:2 Democrat. In the contest for Attorney General of Ohio, Republican challenger Mike DeWine and incumbent Democrat Richard Cordray battle for ballots, DeWine 46%, Cordray 44%. Cordray has an advantage among Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot; DeWine will need to outperform among voters who promise to vote. The contest is fiercely fought in Toledo, Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland. Only in greater Cincinnati does DeWine have an edge. Black turnout will help decide the contest. Blacks vote 2:1 Democrat. Whites vote 5:4 Republican. 9% of likely voters in this poll are black. If black turnout is higher, the Democrat will outperform these numbers. If black turnout is lower, the Republican will outperform these numbers. Republican Portman Comfortably Ahead in Fight to Keep Voinovich's Senate Seat in GOP Hands: Rob Portman is well positioned to be elected US Senator from Ohio, defeating Democrat Lee Fisher, SurveyUSA polling shows. The contest is even among those who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot, but when all respondents are counted, SurveyUSA sees it today as Portman 52%, Fisher 37%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago, Independents have moved to the Republican, who had led by 7, now by 17. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Ohio adults with home telephones 10/22/10 through 10/26/10. Of them, 828 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 613 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Ohio Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? The Republican ticket of John Kasich and Mary Taylor? The Democratic ticket of Ted Strickland and Yvette McGee Brown? The Green Party ticket of Dennis Spisak and Anita Rios? Or the Libertarian Party ticket of Ken Matesz and Margaret Ann Leech? |
| 613 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| Kasich/Taylor (R) | 49% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 53% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 53% | 21% | ** | ** | 43% | 51% | 86% | 13% | 51% | 82% | 36% | 8% | 87% | 8% | 56% | 33% | 53% | 44% | 55% | 66% | 35% | 38% | 51% | 48% | 59% | 46% | 36% | 71% | 26% | 56% | 43% | 41% | 56% | 40% | 55% | 65% | 53% | 45% | ** |
| Strickland/Brown (D) | 44% | 42% | 46% | 42% | 40% | 47% | 46% | 41% | 47% | 41% | 72% | ** | ** | 52% | 41% | 10% | 81% | 34% | 13% | 57% | 83% | 7% | 85% | 38% | 53% | 36% | 50% | 38% | 30% | 54% | 54% | 43% | 43% | 36% | 44% | 56% | 24% | 65% | 39% | 50% | 50% | 39% | 54% | 44% | 25% | 41% | 47% | ** |
| Spisak/Rios (G) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | ** |
| Matesz/Leech (L) | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | ** |
| Undecided | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% | ** | ** | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 4% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 22% | 30% | 26% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 89% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 21% | 79% | 37% | 39% | 22% | 39% | 40% | 15% | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 16% | 45% | 39% | 45% | 17% | 37% | 48% | 52% | 48% | 28% | 24% | 52% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 42% | 5% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Ohio voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from Ohio were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rob Portman? Democrat Lee Fisher? Constitution Party candidate Eric Deaton? Socialist Party candidate Dan LaBotz? Or Independent Michael Pryce? |
| 613 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| Portman (R) | 52% | 58% | 46% | 45% | 52% | 52% | 56% | 49% | 54% | 56% | 20% | ** | ** | 45% | 53% | 88% | 18% | 52% | 84% | 39% | 11% | 87% | 11% | 63% | 36% | 49% | 51% | 55% | 68% | 35% | 41% | 54% | 50% | 61% | 49% | 38% | 70% | 31% | 59% | 44% | 43% | 58% | 48% | 56% | 70% | 55% | 46% | ** |
| Fisher (D) | 37% | 33% | 41% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 35% | 62% | ** | ** | 48% | 35% | 5% | 75% | 25% | 8% | 50% | 77% | 5% | 79% | 24% | 44% | 34% | 40% | 34% | 26% | 47% | 46% | 37% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 50% | 20% | 56% | 32% | 44% | 41% | 34% | 41% | 39% | 21% | 34% | 42% | ** |
| Deaton (C) | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | ** |
| LaBotz (S) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | ** |
| Pryce (I) | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | ** |
| Undecided | 4% | 1% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 15% | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 6% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 22% | 30% | 26% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 89% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 21% | 79% | 37% | 39% | 22% | 39% | 40% | 15% | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 16% | 45% | 39% | 45% | 17% | 37% | 48% | 52% | 48% | 28% | 24% | 52% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 42% | 5% |
 | [Candidate names rotated] Ohio will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike DeWine? Democrat Richard Cordray? Libertarian Marc Feldman? Or Constitution Party candidate Robert Owens? |
| 613 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Toledo A | Dayton A | Cincinna | Columbus | Clevelan | SE Ohio | |
| DeWine (R) | 46% | 47% | 46% | 51% | 43% | 44% | 49% | 46% | 46% | 49% | 29% | ** | ** | 43% | 47% | 78% | 16% | 46% | 75% | 34% | 11% | 76% | 11% | 59% | 33% | 57% | 43% | 47% | 60% | 36% | 37% | 47% | 46% | 55% | 45% | 33% | 63% | 27% | 51% | 40% | 43% | 49% | 46% | 46% | 55% | 47% | 44% | ** |
| Cordray (D) | 44% | 43% | 45% | 39% | 46% | 47% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 43% | 60% | ** | ** | 54% | 42% | 13% | 79% | 36% | 14% | 58% | 82% | 12% | 82% | 33% | 55% | 35% | 49% | 42% | 33% | 54% | 53% | 44% | 44% | 36% | 44% | 60% | 29% | 63% | 41% | 50% | 47% | 43% | 42% | 45% | 37% | 46% | 45% | ** |
| Feldman (L) | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ** | ** | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ** |
| Owens (RP) | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ** |
| Undecided | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 8% | ** | ** | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 22% | 30% | 26% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 89% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 21% | 79% | 37% | 39% | 22% | 39% | 40% | 15% | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 16% | 45% | 39% | 45% | 17% | 37% | 48% | 52% | 48% | 28% | 24% | 52% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 42% | 5% |