Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21754
 
In New Hampshire, Incumbent Democrat Shaheen May Have Narrow Advantage Over GOP's Brown in Senate Fight; Governor Race Shaded Blue:

3 weeks before votes are counted in New Hampshire, a survey by High Point University finds the contest for US Senate breathtakingly close, with incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen holding a narrow 48% to 46% advantage over Republican challenger Scott Brown. The outcome of the Senate race has national implications, and millions of dollars will be spent in the remaining days to influence the outcome, which may differ in either direction by several points from what is shown here.

Brown holds 91% of the Republican base, Shaheen holds 91% of the Democratic base. Independents split. For Shaheen to win, she needs help from women, among whom she leads by 12 points, and from moderates, among whom she leads by 19 points. Brown leads by 10 points among men, and is at or above 50% among middle-aged voters age 40 to 64.

Although just 36% of New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, 47% approve of the job Shaheen is doing.

In the contest for Governor of New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is at 50% today, 8 points atop Republican challenger Walt Havenstein, who is at 42%. Though the number of cross-over voters is small, twice as many Republicans vote Democratic as Democrats who vote Republican. Hassan has a narrow advantage among independents, which is just enough to position her as a clear favorite in this contest. Havenstein leads by 3 points among men, but trails by 18 points among women. Hassan has a 26-point advantage among moderates, who make up 45% of the electorate in this sample.

As a reflection of how close the top-of-ticket statewide contests are, 44% of NH voters say they will vote for a Republican in this year's contest for US House of Representatives, 43% say they will vote for a Democrat.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 850 state of New Hampshire registered voters 10/04/14 through 10/08/14, using Registration Based Sample (aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 and 2012, or needed to have newly registered to vote thereafter. Of the 850 registered voters, 824 were determined to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the phone until the call was completed. You must credit High Point University if you broadcast, publish or cite these results in whole or part.

 
1On November 4th, New Hampshire will hold its general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election?
850 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 1.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Certain93%94%93%76%94%95%96%88%95%95%95%94%96%94%94%89%95%
Probably3%3%4%13%2%3%2%5%3%2%4%3%1%4%4%5%3%
50/502%1%2%6%1%1%2%3%1%0%2%3%2%2%1%3%1%
Will Not1%1%1%5%2%0%0%3%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%2%0%
Not Sure0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%8%17%39%37%25%75%26%27%45%33%45%18%29%71%
 
2 Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction? Or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Right Direction32%30%33%43%21%26%39%28%33%4%62%27%6%36%64%25%34%
Wrong Track63%67%59%52%72%67%56%66%62%94%27%67%94%54%29%67%61%
Not Sure6%3%8%5%7%7%5%6%6%2%11%6%1%9%7%8%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
3Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Approve41%36%45%54%31%38%45%38%42%6%83%33%8%46%83%38%42%
Disapprove54%61%47%38%62%57%50%54%53%91%11%59%89%46%11%54%53%
Not Sure6%4%8%8%7%5%6%8%5%4%6%8%2%8%6%8%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
4Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jeanne Shaheen is handling her job as United States Senator?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Approve47%40%54%50%35%46%54%39%50%8%89%46%14%55%90%43%49%
Disapprove48%56%40%44%55%50%43%52%46%87%8%48%83%38%7%47%48%
Not Sure5%4%6%6%10%5%3%9%4%5%3%6%3%6%4%10%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
5Is your opinion of the Democratic party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Democratic party?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Favorable36%30%42%34%28%35%42%30%38%4%86%24%7%39%83%31%38%
Unfavorable43%49%37%28%50%47%38%43%43%83%7%44%80%33%6%40%44%
Neutral17%17%17%32%18%14%18%22%16%11%5%27%10%24%8%20%16%
No Opinion3%3%4%6%5%4%1%5%3%2%2%5%2%4%3%10%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
6Is your opinion of the Republican party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Republican party?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Favorable25%26%25%15%28%28%24%24%26%60%4%19%53%16%2%24%26%
Unfavorable46%44%47%41%37%45%51%38%48%13%84%43%16%53%85%36%49%
Neutral25%26%25%38%29%25%22%32%23%24%9%34%28%27%10%32%23%
No Opinion3%3%4%6%7%2%3%6%2%3%3%4%3%4%3%8%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
7If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Scott Brown? Or Democrat Jeanne Shaheen?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Scott Brown (R)46%52%41%31%51%50%42%45%46%91%7%45%83%38%6%44%47%
Jeanne Shaheen (D)48%42%53%55%39%45%54%44%49%5%91%46%11%57%90%45%49%
Undecided6%6%6%14%10%4%4%11%4%4%2%9%5%5%4%11%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
8If the election for New Hampshire Governor were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Walt Havenstein? Democrat Maggie Hassan? Or some other candidate?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Walt Havenstein (R)42%47%37%28%49%43%40%42%41%83%5%41%76%33%4%38%43%
Maggie Hassan (D)50%44%55%63%38%48%54%46%51%10%93%46%15%59%89%48%51%
Other4%3%5%6%7%5%2%7%4%4%1%6%5%3%4%4%5%
Undecided4%5%3%3%6%4%3%5%4%3%1%6%4%5%2%11%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
9If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for (rotated) The Republican party's candidate? Or The Democratic party's candidate? for Congress in your district? Or, will you vote for some other party's candidate?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
The Republican Party's Candidate44%51%38%26%53%48%40%44%44%88%8%42%82%35%6%44%44%
The Democratic Party's Candidate43%38%47%52%27%41%50%35%46%6%87%37%8%50%86%35%46%
Other6%5%6%12%7%4%5%9%5%2%1%10%4%7%3%5%6%
Undecided7%5%8%10%13%6%5%12%5%4%4%11%6%8%5%15%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
10We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Better Off31%31%31%54%28%26%33%36%29%10%50%29%11%33%57%35%29%
Worse Off43%46%41%25%44%52%37%38%45%67%18%46%66%37%18%40%45%
Neither25%23%26%21%27%22%28%25%25%21%30%24%21%30%23%24%25%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%1%0%2%1%1%2%2%0%1%1%2%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
11As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Favorable40%36%43%52%26%38%45%34%41%5%81%33%7%47%80%33%42%
Unfavorable52%58%47%42%62%57%45%56%51%88%14%56%88%44%13%58%50%
Not Sure8%6%10%6%11%5%10%10%7%7%5%11%5%9%7%9%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
12How much of a chance is there that you would vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton if she ran for president in 2016? A good chance? Some chance? Or no chance?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Good Chance29%21%36%26%29%25%34%28%29%3%64%24%6%32%64%27%30%
Some Chance21%21%22%39%18%19%22%25%20%9%26%23%7%28%26%21%22%
No Chance46%55%39%35%50%51%42%45%47%88%8%47%85%36%6%45%47%
Not Sure3%3%3%0%3%5%2%2%4%1%2%6%2%4%4%7%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
13Which comes closer to your view about the use of marijuana by adults? It should be legal for personal use? It should be legal only for medicinal use? Or it should not be legal?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Legal For Personal Use36%40%33%38%39%43%28%39%36%16%50%40%25%34%63%34%37%
Legal Only For Medicinal Use40%37%44%37%35%37%48%35%42%42%40%41%40%47%31%38%41%
Should Not Be Legal21%21%21%22%23%20%21%22%21%39%9%16%34%17%6%25%19%
Not Sure2%2%2%4%3%1%3%3%2%2%1%3%2%3%1%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
14Now I am going to ask you some questions about guns. Which of these would lead to less violent crime in the United States: if guns were banned or if more law-abiding people had guns?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Guns Were Banned30%25%34%40%21%27%35%27%31%9%53%26%6%32%64%25%32%
More Law-abiding People Had Guns52%58%46%49%62%55%44%58%50%80%23%54%86%44%15%58%49%
Not Sure18%16%20%10%17%18%21%15%19%11%24%20%8%24%21%17%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
15Do you approve or disapprove of spanking children?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Approve37%41%33%39%37%39%34%38%37%47%26%38%51%38%12%38%36%
Disapprove46%42%49%52%41%45%47%44%46%36%56%45%33%43%70%49%45%
Not Sure17%17%18%9%22%16%18%18%17%17%18%17%16%19%17%13%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
16Do you think voters should or should not be required to show an official photo identification before they are allowed to vote on Election Day?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Should71%72%70%74%83%74%62%80%68%93%41%75%94%70%29%84%66%
Should Not25%25%25%24%16%24%31%18%28%6%56%19%5%25%66%15%29%
Not Sure4%3%5%2%1%2%7%1%4%2%3%5%1%5%5%1%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
17Beyond any scholarships they receive, do you support or oppose paying salaries to college athletes?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Support22%26%18%28%24%24%18%25%21%16%29%22%16%22%33%29%19%
Oppose63%61%65%64%62%59%68%63%64%66%58%64%67%64%54%60%65%
Not Sure15%13%16%8%15%17%14%13%16%18%13%14%17%14%14%11%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
18The Supreme Court decided that privately-held for-profit companies may choose NOT to pay for coverage of prescription birth control in their workers' health plans if the company's owner has religious objections. Do you approve or disapprove of the Court's decision in this case?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Approve42%50%35%34%52%44%36%46%40%67%12%45%72%35%9%38%43%
Disapprove51%43%58%62%40%49%55%47%52%25%83%46%23%56%86%55%49%
Not Sure8%7%8%4%8%7%9%7%8%8%5%9%6%9%5%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
19Overall, how qualified do you feel to do the job of an elected official? Not at all qualified, somewhat qualified, qualified, or very qualified?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Not At All Qualified20%12%27%31%26%16%19%28%18%23%19%16%19%19%18%29%16%
Somewhat Qualified36%31%41%44%32%36%37%35%37%32%38%37%36%36%36%31%38%
Qualified23%28%18%13%19%26%24%17%25%25%23%23%21%27%22%17%25%
Very Qualified17%26%10%10%19%20%16%16%18%17%16%19%22%14%20%19%17%
Not Sure4%4%3%3%5%2%4%4%3%3%4%4%3%4%3%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%
 
20Which one of the following statements comes closest to your opinion about men and women as political leaders? Men generally make better political leaders than women? Women generally make better political leaders than men? Or in general, women and men make equally good political leaders?
824 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3940-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalCell PhoLandline
Men Better5%5%5%5%6%5%5%6%5%10%2%3%11%3%0%4%5%
Women Better10%8%12%12%6%9%12%8%11%2%21%8%2%11%21%7%11%
Equally Good84%87%82%81%87%86%82%85%84%87%77%87%87%86%78%88%83%
Not Sure1%0%1%2%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%7%16%39%37%24%76%26%27%45%33%45%18%28%72%