Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19612
 
In Minnesota, 8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Obama 10 Points Atop Romney; Marriage Amendment Narrowly Favored; Klobuchar Sails:

8 weeks until votes are counted, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in the battle for Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar is materially ahead in her campaign for re-election to the U.S. Senate, and an amendment to define marriage is narrowly favored to pass, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

In this, SurveyUSA's first poll of Minnesota since the Republican and Democratic conventions, Obama's lead over Romney has grown from 6 points 6 weeks ago to 10 points today. The 10-point advantage comes largely from women, among whom Obama today leads by 17 points. Romney leads in Southern MN, but Obama leads elsewhere in the state. Obama holds slightly more of the Democratic base than Romney holds of the Republican base, and Independents break ever-so-slightly for Obama. (Among Independents, there has been a 7-point swing to Obama compared to SurveyUSA's poll 6 weeks ago.) The real tailwind comes from moderates, who break 2:1 for Obama. Romney trails among the rich and the poor, among the educated and the less educated. There is erosion in Romney's support among middle-income and upper-income voters, compared to 6 weeks ago.

Today's release is also SurveyUSA's first poll in Minnesota since Paul Ryan was named Romney's running mate. 30% of likely voters say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Romney, but 34% say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Obama. 35% shrug when asked about Ryan.

An amendment to define marriage in Minnesota as between one man and one woman is today favored to pass 50% to 43%, though all ballot measures are difficult to predict. Today, SurveyUSA finds: Republicans favor the amendment 4:1. Democrats oppose the measure 2:1. Independents split. The less educated you are, the more likely you are to support the amendment. The lower your income, the more likely you are to support the amendment. An odd coalition takes shape, age-wise: voters younger than 35 and older than 64 support the measure. Voters age 35 to 64 split. SurveyUSA has polled on the marriage amendment before, going back to 2011. This is the first poll that used the actual language that will appear on the ballot, instead of a summary of the ballot language; previous SurveyUSA polls are not apples-to-apples comparable with this one.

In the election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar remains the overwhelming favorite, leading Republican Kurt Bills 55% to 34%. 6 weeks ago, Klobuchar led by 24 points, today by 21.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 09/06/12 through 09/09/12. Of them, 627 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 551 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Obama leads by 4 points among voters interviewed on their home phone. Obama leads by 25 points among voters not reachable on a home telephone. When the two groups are proportionally combined, Obama leads by the 10 points reported here. In 2008, Obama carried Minnesota by 10 points over John McCain.

 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Mitt Romney (R)40%44%37%37%44%40%40%41%40%29%44%87%5%40%80%30%4%39%42%39%40%37%42%39%47%42%38%
Barack Obama (D)50%45%54%49%43%54%52%46%53%54%48%7%92%43%12%59%92%49%49%51%52%52%46%52%39%47%53%
Other5%6%3%4%4%5%4%4%5%4%5%2%1%10%4%4%3%9%4%3%5%4%5%3%10%7%4%
Undecided5%6%5%9%8%1%3%9%2%13%3%4%2%8%4%7%1%3%5%7%2%6%7%7%4%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Kurt Bills (R)34%40%28%38%38%29%33%38%31%26%37%79%4%29%72%20%6%30%36%34%32%34%36%35%35%32%31%
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)55%49%61%48%49%61%62%48%62%51%56%14%90%55%19%70%86%56%52%56%57%55%54%52%56%60%61%
Other4%4%3%1%4%6%2%3%4%4%4%2%3%7%2%3%3%5%5%2%5%3%3%3%4%5%4%
Undecided7%8%7%13%10%4%3%12%3%20%4%5%2%9%7%7%5%9%7%7%7%8%6%10%5%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Health Care27%22%33%19%14%35%43%16%38%12%32%23%34%26%22%28%34%34%27%24%32%27%21%25%34%32%27%
Job Creation31%37%25%35%36%27%27%35%27%42%28%28%30%34%29%36%24%27%33%32%33%26%37%33%33%22%31%
Taxes15%14%15%17%17%15%9%17%12%17%14%19%10%17%21%13%10%9%16%16%9%18%17%16%9%13%14%
Gas Prices6%7%4%7%7%5%3%7%5%8%5%10%5%3%5%6%4%12%6%3%10%5%3%4%5%11%7%
War On Terrorism1%1%1%1%2%1%3%1%2%1%2%3%1%0%2%1%2%3%0%2%3%1%1%2%2%1%1%
Education6%5%7%5%9%5%6%7%5%4%7%1%9%8%1%7%11%6%4%8%3%7%8%6%9%6%5%
Something Else10%10%11%14%12%9%5%13%7%12%10%12%8%10%17%5%13%5%10%13%7%13%8%11%5%13%12%
Not Sure4%4%4%4%3%4%5%3%4%4%4%4%2%4%3%4%2%5%5%2%4%3%4%4%3%3%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
4Does the selection of Paul Ryan as running mate make you ... More likely to vote for Mitt Romney? More likely to vote for Barack Obama? Or does it not make a difference one way or the other?
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
More Likely To Vote For Mitt Romney30%35%25%27%31%28%34%29%31%18%33%62%4%34%62%20%5%30%31%29%28%29%30%30%34%27%30%
More Likely To Vote For Barack Obama34%33%34%38%28%33%37%33%34%42%31%5%59%33%8%41%61%36%29%36%36%33%33%36%30%25%37%
Does Not Make a Difference35%31%39%32%40%38%27%36%34%38%34%32%36%32%29%38%34%30%40%34%34%36%36%33%35%46%33%
Not Sure1%1%2%3%1%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%4%1%1%2%2%1%2%1%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes50%51%48%50%47%48%56%48%51%43%52%77%30%47%80%41%21%64%49%43%56%51%40%46%51%56%54%
No43%43%43%39%45%47%39%42%44%44%43%19%62%46%16%50%77%29%43%49%37%41%53%44%46%37%40%
Undecided8%7%9%12%8%5%5%10%5%13%6%4%7%8%4%9%2%7%7%8%7%8%7%9%3%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes62%63%60%58%68%60%59%64%59%60%62%87%39%65%84%60%25%63%65%58%61%65%57%60%69%62%61%
No31%31%31%31%20%38%37%25%38%24%34%8%53%29%12%34%65%32%28%34%33%27%37%32%27%29%36%
Undecided7%5%9%10%12%2%4%11%3%16%4%5%8%7%4%6%10%5%7%8%6%9%7%8%4%9%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?
551 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Republican38%41%34%35%42%36%39%38%37%24%42%91%3%32%79%25%3%38%36%39%36%37%41%36%42%42%35%
DFL45%39%51%41%40%49%49%40%49%44%45%4%90%33%11%53%89%45%46%44%47%45%43%45%38%40%54%
Independence Party6%7%4%7%4%6%5%5%6%6%5%2%2%16%4%7%2%6%6%5%6%6%5%5%8%5%6%
Other3%4%2%2%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%0%3%5%1%3%2%5%3%2%3%3%4%2%6%4%2%
Undecided9%9%8%15%11%5%4%13%5%23%5%3%2%13%4%11%3%7%8%10%8%10%7%11%6%8%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%23%27%31%19%50%50%23%77%30%37%27%31%44%18%18%36%47%28%41%31%59%13%14%14%
 
 
8A couple last questions about the new Vikings stadium. How important is it that the new Vikings stadium create jobs for Minnesotans? Very important? Somewhat important? Not very important? Or not at all important?
627 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Very55%52%58%51%60%57%50%55%54%49%57%48%66%53%47%58%62%55%60%51%51%58%54%56%50%59%51%
Somewhat26%27%25%32%23%24%26%27%25%35%23%30%21%26%32%25%22%26%23%28%29%24%26%25%34%21%28%
Not Very10%10%9%8%9%8%15%8%11%7%10%13%8%10%11%10%9%9%11%8%12%9%10%10%7%11%10%
Not At All8%9%6%7%7%10%8%7%9%5%9%8%4%11%9%7%5%8%5%10%8%6%9%8%6%9%10%
Not Sure2%2%2%3%2%1%1%3%1%4%1%2%1%0%2%0%3%1%1%3%0%3%2%3%2%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%27%26%29%18%53%47%25%75%29%36%28%30%44%18%19%37%44%28%42%30%57%14%15%14%
 
 
9What percentage of the jobs created by the stadium construction project should be held by Minnesotans?
627 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
10% Or Less4%3%5%5%3%3%5%4%4%1%5%6%5%2%4%4%4%6%3%4%5%4%1%4%3%5%4%
20%2%3%1%4%1%1%2%2%2%3%2%3%1%0%2%1%3%4%2%2%3%2%2%2%4%2%1%
30%3%4%2%3%1%2%8%2%4%2%3%4%4%1%4%3%2%4%3%2%4%3%3%3%3%3%4%
40%2%2%3%2%3%2%4%2%3%4%2%2%4%1%3%2%3%2%3%2%2%3%2%2%4%1%3%
50%11%10%12%16%10%8%10%13%9%10%11%16%12%7%13%10%10%8%9%14%8%12%12%13%8%7%11%
60%6%5%6%8%6%4%5%7%4%7%5%5%7%6%6%3%10%7%5%6%3%7%7%6%2%10%6%
70%9%11%8%8%9%9%10%9%10%11%9%8%6%13%9%11%7%4%9%12%11%8%9%8%10%17%6%
80%15%15%15%13%15%19%10%14%16%17%14%13%12%17%11%19%12%12%13%17%13%14%17%15%17%15%11%
90% Or More40%41%40%31%46%45%40%38%43%35%42%35%44%45%37%42%45%42%48%34%45%39%40%41%35%38%46%
Not Sure7%6%8%12%5%5%6%9%5%9%7%7%6%8%11%5%4%11%5%8%6%9%7%6%15%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%27%26%29%18%53%47%25%75%29%36%28%30%44%18%19%37%44%28%42%30%57%14%15%14%
 
 
10Do you think the State of Minnesota has enough money to fund public pensions?
627 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes19%20%18%19%15%19%23%17%21%19%19%18%27%13%16%20%24%15%19%20%16%20%20%19%14%17%24%
No42%43%40%44%47%42%32%45%38%44%41%45%32%50%44%45%33%40%43%42%42%39%45%42%39%43%43%
Not Sure39%37%42%37%38%39%45%38%41%37%40%37%41%37%40%35%43%45%38%38%42%41%35%39%47%40%33%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%27%26%29%18%53%47%25%75%29%36%28%30%44%18%19%37%44%28%42%30%57%14%15%14%
 
 
11Would you be willing to pay more in property taxes to fund public pensions?
627 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes13%14%12%13%16%12%11%14%11%17%12%6%21%11%5%15%27%6%11%18%6%15%18%14%9%14%11%
No69%72%66%64%71%73%66%67%70%65%70%81%54%74%78%70%47%69%70%67%73%63%69%67%68%67%76%
Not Sure18%14%23%24%13%16%23%18%19%18%19%13%25%15%17%16%25%25%20%15%21%22%13%19%23%19%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%27%26%29%18%53%47%25%75%29%36%28%30%44%18%19%37%44%28%42%30%57%14%15%14%
 
 
12How much do you think you need each month to live comfortably in your retirement? $3,000 or less? $6,000? $9,000? $12,000 or more?
627 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
$3,000 Or Less30%28%32%25%26%33%38%25%35%29%30%25%35%26%28%31%30%44%33%20%47%29%14%28%23%35%40%
$6,00045%48%42%40%49%52%36%44%46%42%46%47%44%49%47%48%45%37%43%51%34%48%56%46%46%44%43%
$9,00012%11%12%13%14%9%10%14%9%11%12%14%10%11%12%10%12%6%11%15%5%11%18%11%16%10%11%
$12,0005%6%4%7%5%2%6%6%4%5%5%8%4%4%5%4%4%3%5%6%6%4%6%6%6%4%1%
Not Sure9%7%10%14%7%4%10%10%6%11%8%7%7%10%8%5%9%9%7%9%7%8%7%10%9%8%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%27%26%29%18%53%47%25%75%29%36%28%30%44%18%19%37%44%28%42%30%57%14%15%14%