Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16853
 
Hartman Fades, Schodorf Surges as KS-04 Primary Day Nears: Can Pompeo Hold On For a Win? In a Republican Primary today, 07/29/10, for the open US House of Representatives seat from Kansas' 4th Congressional District, businessman Mike Pompeo finishes just ahead of State Senator Jean Schodorf and businessman Wink Hartman, but SurveyUSA's exclusive tracking graphs suggest there may be more to that story, according to this exclusive poll for KWCH-TV in Wichita.

Today, Pompeo gets 31%; Schodorf gets 24%; Hartman gets 23%. But, compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Schodorf is up 8 points, while Hartman is down 8 and Pompeo is nominally down 1. Schodorf today holds significant double-digit leads among the oldest voters, among moderates, and among pro-choice voters, each of which are minority groups in the GOP primary electorate, but each of which are groups where Schodorf has climbed from 3rd place to 1st over the past month. Pompeo, meanwhile, remains in command among conservatives, those with favorable views of the Tea Party, and pro-life voters. If Schodorf can motivate her base of more moderate, pro-choice Republicans to vote, Schodorf may ride her wave of momentum to victory when votes are counted in 5 days, on 08/03/10. The more conservative and pro-life the electorate, the more likely Pompeo will withstand Schodorf's challenge.

KS-04 Democrats today nominate State Representative Raj Goyle to face the GOP Primary winner in the November general election. Goyle today defeats retiree Robert Tillman 63% to 19%, with 18% of likely voters undecided. In 2 previous SurveyUSA polls, Tillman was a factor. As the candidates now head into the final weekend of campaigning, Goyle appears to have sealed the deal.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,500 adults from Kansas' 4th Congressional District 07/26/10 through 07/28/10. Of them, 2,158 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 827 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely voters in the 08/03/10 Republican Primary; 435 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely voters in the 08/03/10 Democratic Primary. Advance voting began 07/14/10. Incumbent Republican Representative Todd Tiahrt is running for United States Senate and is not seeking reelection to his House seat.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the Republican Primary for US House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Jim Anderson? Wink Hartman? Mike Pompeo? Paij Rutschman? Or Jean Schodorf?
827 Likely & Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Anderson13%17%9%16%14%14%11%15%12%12%******11%14%13%****15%10%**17%6%11%8%11%16%13%13%16%15%10%14%11%13%14%
Hartman23%25%22%25%25%22%22%25%22%24%******25%23%23%****26%17%**26%9%23%30%21%26%24%21%27%25%22%24%21%23%23%
Pompeo31%33%28%39%34%31%23%35%27%31%******32%30%31%****36%20%**39%15%21%23%33%28%33%30%17%39%13%32%29%26%33%
Rutschman2%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%******1%2%2%****1%2%**2%4%1%3%2%2%1%5%3%1%4%2%2%2%2%
Schodorf24%20%30%10%18%26%37%15%32%25%******26%24%24%****16%45%**12%63%38%19%26%22%24%21%32%15%44%22%30%25%24%
Undecided6%4%9%9%7%5%6%7%6%6%******5%7%6%****5%7%**4%3%7%17%6%6%5%10%6%5%7%6%7%10%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters100%55%45%14%31%27%28%45%55%94%3%2%2%12%88%100%0%0%68%25%4%58%13%18%11%56%44%67%21%12%67%31%63%33%30%70%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the Democratic Primary for US House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Raj Goyle? Or Robert Tillman?
435 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Goyle63%60%66%54%61%64%69%58%67%65%******68%63%**69%45%42%68%79%43%79%55%51%68%60%60%69%67%43%73%61%68%64%64%
Tillman19%21%17%21%23%18%15%22%16%17%******23%19%**20%15%23%19%15%17%16%25%25%16%20%24%15%12%19%19%19%18%14%22%
Undecided18%19%17%25%16%18%15%19%17%18%******8%19%**10%40%35%13%6%40%5%20%25%15%20%16%17%21%38%8%19%14%21%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%48%52%16%29%25%29%45%55%88%5%5%3%10%90%0%74%26%25%44%25%22%47%22%9%44%56%51%25%25%30%68%53%45%46%54%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.