Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10610

As Arizona's J.D. Hayworth Goes, So Goes Republican Control of the House ... ? In an election for U.S. House of Representatives today, in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, prominent incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 643 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Just as it was in SurveyUSA's most recent poll, released 10/16/06, the contest today is within the survey's margin of sampling error. But unlike 10/16, when Hayworth still clung to a 3-point lead, today it is Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell who is up by 2 points. Going back to SurveyUSA's first poll in the District in September, Hayworth has lost 6 points, Mitchell has gained 8. A 12-point Republican lead on 9/18 has been erased. Where is the movement? Among female voters, Mitchell had trailed by 4, now leads by 6, a 10-point swing to the Democrat. Among Moderates, Mitchell led by 15 points 2 weeks ago, today leads by 32 points. Among Republicans, 12% voted Democrat in September, 15% voted Democrat 2 weeks ago, 19% vote Democrat today. While this is still only a small amount of erosion from within the Republican base, in a contest this closely contested, it could make the difference. Among Conservatives, though still overwhelmingly Republican, the number who "cross-over" to vote for the Democrat has doubled, from 8% to 16%. Because the contest has national ramifications, and outside money is pouring in to hold the seat for the GOP, these results may fluctuate in the campaign's remaining 6 days. Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994.

Filtering: 800 Registered Voters from Arizona's 5th Congressional district were interviewed 10/29/06 through 10/31/06. Of them, 643 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican J.D. Hayworth? Democrat Harry Mitchell? Or Libertarian Warren Severin?

643 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				Race		Party			Ideology			Education				Income			Bush Job Approva		Generation *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	No Colle	Some Col	College	Grad Sch	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Approve	Disappro	Gen Y	Gen X	Jones	Boomers	Mature
Hayworth (R)	46%	49%	43%	41%	47%	46%	47%	48%	29%	76%	11%	28%	79%	30%	6%	52%	49%	52%	38%	50%	47%	44%	87%	11%	**	39%	45%	47%	47%
Mitchell (D)	48%	47%	49%	49%	46%	49%	48%	45%	66%	19%	84%	61%	16%	62%	88%	40%	41%	44%	57%	43%	46%	51%	8%	83%	**	52%	48%	48%	48%
Severin (L)	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	3%	3%	10%	4%	5%	3%	5%	5%	3%	4%	3%	5%	3%	3%	4%	**	6%	4%	4%	4%
Undecided	2%	0%	4%	6%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	3%	5%	1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%	**	3%	3%	1%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	47%	53%	14%	29%	34%	23%	86%	8%	48%	32%	18%	37%	44%	14%	6%	27%	28%	39%	14%	36%	44%	43%	52%	3%	21%	28%	25%	23%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.